Dr. Astro

Me either. Can see maybe 70-75mph gusts... Roger - which mesoscale charts are you referring to.

Yes, although on it's Eastern Flank, it remains cold (See West Scotland)

Brilliant haha !

Tweet from Matt Hugo with Radar... https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/560883249678155776 Said earlier.. Peak District will do great out of this. * Very Heavy *

Yes, will be rain for you.

Late tonight I would suspect, if anything happens !

Depends if you are Mr / Mrs Sensetive?

Dew point is starting to fall now though, forget temps, it's all about the dew point./

A YELLOW FLASH warning of Snow has been issued for parts of Northern Ireland. A polar low has developed near Scoland and is expected to track over eastern areas of NI this evening, this was unexpected hence a flash warning has been issued. This is likely to bring an area of snow for Co Antrim and Co Down, which could be heavy. Accumulations of 2 - 5 cm are likely in a short space of time and accumulations of up to 10cm locally and over the hills.

Yep Kev, I'd ignore to be honest. Not only are Polar Lows still quite a mystery, the tracks are also erratic. In this flow though, it looks like it will enter the Irish Sea and track through the NW as per charts & forecasts, but it will do, whatever it wants to do. Also, it IS a Polar Low, confirmed by the Met Office, you know, those PROFESSIONAL weather forecasters as opposed to some Amatuer ones claiming they are not so sure... It's like Einstein telling you 1+1 = 2, but Joe Bloggs tells you it's 3.

It is a Polar Low, and they decay very quickly. A normal LP front or trough can push right through, IE - Like today.

Those in the Peak District areas should be rubbing their hands together, Buxton, Macc etc are in for a real treat.

Yep, they always do. I see it going through the Irish Sea, into NW England, affecting N Wales, NW England, Peak District and parts of yorkshire, before moving south into the Midlands and decaying. Those in Buxton, Castleton, Glossop could see some very large falls.

Yup, just as I thought earlier re the track, NW England, N.Wales, into the midlands and through the SE. Love watching these, very exciting, associated low dew points within the system are a big plus. Temps can be 5C but if that dew point is negative, and the intensity, your looking at snow. Not sleet, or rain. I can imagine the Peak District are going to be VERY deep after this crosses through.

Last one I seen fizzled out and lost all it's intensity really quickly and didn't really drop anything. One before that that I remember dropped a foot of snow, so it all really depends on how intense it is, usually by now though, you can see it start to fizzle. Should be a good watch !

Agreed, following the track, it's further East, heading into Irish Sea and NW England. Let hops temps / dew's are OK.

Certainly will be for some... You can see it's intensity here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess= Just NW of Scotland.

Really depends on the track but I think Glasgow could be on the *edge* of the system, so you might be lucky. It appears looking at data & sat it could track into the Irish Sea, picking up more moisture.

Thanks for them Graphics Paul... Can guarantee, someone, somewhere is going to get a dumping from this feature, almost blizzard like conditions. If I was in N.Wales,and parts of the NW / Mids North, i'd be getting twitchy.

South of mid Wales, agreed.

I'll eat my hat if the ECM predicts it's track 100% spot on.

Eh? On the Western side they usually track, throwing off a lot of convection in the Irish Sea and into the NW. I have seen one of these deliver a Foot of snow in the NW.

Apologies, I didn't realise you was talking about the SW as up North we are negative on values.

It's a cold unstable airmass, it wont have warm air wrapped. They rarely deliver rain.

Hard to tell yet, they are so erratic. Looking like through West Scotland, NW England, NW wales, and through the Midlands to SE... Albeit that's just a track i'm projecting, I doubt it would ever make it as far because they lose intensity quickly.