Borei

Yes, but the question is whether those atmospheric drivers are still present. Today's output is about as flat and vile as we've seen for a couple of years, going back to December 15's horror show.

Those of you who like to base analysis primarily on ensemble means might like to remember Ian's well made point a little more often.

This forum has a mix of excellence and schizophrenics . This morning some were euphorically trumpeting an easterly and explaining how it was really all so predictable based on Alaskan ridging, shortwaves off Philadelphia, and a shattered PV. This evening some (often the same people) are in a state of gloom due to a return of a zonal flow, and explaining how it was really all so predictable based on Alaskan troughing, shortwaves off Greenland, and a strong PV. As a casual reader I'm just giving my opinion on a thread which generally seems long on over-reactions and short on rational consideration ........... and again I stress that there are some excellent posts in amongst it all.