Borei
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Posts posted by Borei
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A couple of mainly light snow showers added another thin covering amidst the sunny spells.
Currently flurries, -2.7c
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Been mostly dry since mid afternoon but light snow now, 1.1c
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Rain fully transitioned to snow now, 1.4c
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6 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:
I don't know why I bother looking at these anymore.
I'd honestly be shocked if a professional meterologist is writing that.
There is no flow to the sentences and it's almost like they write a sentence and then add a bit after it whilst glancing back at the charts.
Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west.
So umm not drier then?
There's no doubt that these forecasts are poorly written and constructed from a plain English and grammar perspective.
At @johnholmes, it's not the meteorological content that's the issue, it's the words that are chosen to convey the message.
I really feel that as a supposedly premier met organisation, and with this being their main public facing content, they should take more care to ensure that the wording is appropriate. It needs to be clear, relatively easy to understand, and coherent. Too often it isn't, and frankly, whatever the quality of the underlying science, the presentation of the message is very poor and that's not good enough.
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Just now, Snowycat said:
Just a thought, these aren’t automatically computer generated written forecasts are they courtesy of PC wizardry. It might explain the poor grammar and other mistakes particularly if no “hooman” is checking them.
Well, possibly, but it's still not an excuse for abysmally written public facing output.
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More evidence of a deeply un-professional malaise.
The forecast for the period starting Tuesday 12th begins by talking about Sunday (presumably 10th).
This is their public output, their premier forecast for every-day consumers - and it's lamentably poor.
An enthusiastic child would do a better job of writing them. They should be proof read and clearly they never are.
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A light snow shower has added a small covering, but the main point of note is the persistence of a snow cover here since Dec 28. That's notable in any winter, and makes this spell easily the best since March 2018.
Minimum last night -4.3c.
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Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.
I hear a lot about how the UKMO are the best in the world - an assertion which is invariably recited as an article of faith without any supporting evidence.
But their forecasts are often poorly written and worded, ambiguous, and in today's example above, grammatically atrocious.
It's un-professional and very poor. I've seen better worded fraud e mails from spoof Nigerian princes
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Light snow from 12 intensified to moderate snow for the last half hour and an additional 2-3cm covering on all surfaces to date.
Temperature 0.4c
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13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
I don't understand this post. I agree it was too late, or are you trying to suggest the set up today is too weak to warrant a warning, which I don't agree with?
Hi Kasim,
No, my point was totally that it was too late. For hill walkers, of which there are many at weekends in this region, decisions will often be made based on MO forecasts. Getting stuck on a hill in blizzard conditions can be a really serious situation and this is where timely warnings really matter. Putting one out at 10AM for an event due at 1PM is too late.
As always, thanks for your really excellent interpretative contributions to this regional forum .
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With its belated nowcast weather warning, I'm afraid that the MO has once more proved that it's a long way from being 'world beating'. Its forecasts are important to such as hill walkers, and this is really poor. Indeed, as Covid has exposed, our ability to deliver 'world beating' anything is more a fond illusion than a reality, and the MO is no exception.
Clear skies here with a low of -5.6c aided by the persisting snow cover, easily the coldest night of the winter.
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Freezing fog, -1.8c.
Very little snow melt today so still about 5cms on the ground.
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Mostly clear, -2.8c with about 5cm of level snow intact.
Surrounding white hill tops visible against the night sky.
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Cloudy and -0.3c.
Still a covering of snow to all levels locally (noting that the valley floor locally is about 130m).
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1 hour ago, Jason M said:At present I think its the other way round. I think this forum is seeing something the METO is not. Other than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather there isn't any deep freeze showing in the charts at present and they can't forecast something that isn't supported by evidence. There are some nice looking easterlies but they are fairly tame as they are generally sourced from a long way south and well within the envelope of bog standard UK winter weather.
Some will see rain, some will see snow (or already have), but nothing significantly cold.
GEFS are okay but a bit meh in all honesty. We are roughly where we are two days ago and whilst in the game (makes a change :-)) the result remains in the balance!
If you mean by 'deep freeze' air temperatures of -10 or below, then yes.
But the rest of your post seems to fly in the face of reality. We face a solid 10-14 days at least of temperatures below normal. We also persistently see synoptics that are very unusual.
In those key senses, I simply can't see what's 'meh' about current model output. I also find it a contradiction in terms to describe modelled easterlies as part of a 'bog standard; UK winter.
We are set for an unusually long period of temperatures below, or significantly below, normal in the heart of winter. That, in itself, is very unusual, and long may it continue. We may not get a 'deep freeze' but there are plenty of other cold scenarios being modelled which collectively represent the opposite of our usual fayre.
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Well the snow is over here but it dropped 5-7cm at this altitude, and certainly also settled lower down in the town centres of Burnley, Blackburn etc at about 120-150m.
So a decent snow event, the second of the month here.
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37 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Anyone in Burnley, Blackburn?
Yes, and fairly persistent snow now for the last two hours, a covering on all surfaces about 2cm now, temperature -0.1c.
Looks like you got your prediction (a couple of days ago) of the shower line completely right - great work Kasim .
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Showers turned to snow now and settling on grassy surfaces, 0.2c
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Frequent rain and sleet showers.
Temperature has dropped slowly through today, currently 2.2c.
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:
Unless you just arrived from Mars, that metoffice update is as wintry as you could expect them to make ........ it rarely gets better than that .....
Quite so
The MO updates are always very conservative in their wording, particularly when it comes to wintry weather.
The interpretation of these updates is a matter for individuals. But I'm afraid that a few individuals, as we see on the MO thread, will deliberately obfuscate the prospects of a long period of below average temperatures in the heart of winter, despite it being clearly forecast from all sources (including the MO). Sceptics might say that's because they have a peculiar agenda of denial - and long periods of below average temperatures really do not fit a particular narrative.
I quote from the MO outlook:
29/12 - 7/1 Temperatures are likely to remain below average through this period with wintry hazards.
7/1 - 21/1 A continuation of rather cold conditions looks most likely into early January and towards the middle part of January. From mid-January onwards confidence is low however similar conditions are most probable with winds most likely from a northerly quadrant, bringing below average temperatures and wintry hazards at times.
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Whilst we're between model runs, it seems appropriate for me to point out an irritating trend on this thread for a minority of individuals to ascribe climate change to every chart which doesn't show -5 850s over the UK, or to make un-supportable claims that the exact same synoptics 50 years ago would have yielded heavy snow or a deep freeze.
IMO Model output is never the place to drop in these comments, particularly as it's invariably based on cherry picking. It's a bit like someone claiming that the extreme and persistent anomalous cold over central and eastern Siberia indicates a coming ice age.
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:
I’m not sure what WIB is thinking but he’s just wrong. It may well be more correct to say that you generally need to have had -5c uppers in place for a period prior to the snowfall arriving
No need to mince your words BA .
But yesterday very clearly demonstrated that uppers less than -5 are not a pre-requisite for UK snow. I guess in this post factual world there's a tendency to ignore evidence and simply re-iterate one's mantra of choice, particularly if it can be linked to other false narratives about an alleged hemispheric absence of cold air due to global warming .
But as others said in the run up to this supposed 'no snow' debacle, there are numerous parameters impacting snowfall, of which upper air temp is just one. I'm not a meteorologist, but I can read, understand and then observe post event results. You and others who explained the parameters have been proven right. The case ought to be closed.
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Been snowing moderately since about 9PM, and a covering now on all surfaces.
Not a bad start to winter, and especially given there is allegedly no cold air around
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39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yes, first half of winter (bare minimum).is a complete write off for the UK mate.
The 00z runs are among the worst i have seen in the Internet era ...(and there has been plenty of stiff competition over the years).
I didn't hold high hopes after Glosea picked up on the +NAO but its actually far worse than i could have ever imagined.
If anyone can offer some hope i'm all ears..
December 2015 was worse!
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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Lamentably poor Met O. Drove to Salford and back today, and there was continuous snow cover with temperatures barely scraping above freezing in the Quays this afternoon.
Approx 10cm here, and we've had snow cover since Friday night.
Currently -5.6c under clear skies with freezing fog in the valley.