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Banbury

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Everything posted by Banbury

  1. The winner by a long way this year really has been the Azores High - so far
  2. D16 mean changes each run...…….waste of time and be skewed either way by a couple of big cold or mild outliers
  3. Thought it was just me that was reading the charts in that way - its a v good ECM run
  4. That run will bring snow to more locations than you suggest
  5. A back loaded winter was always talked about not just to suit any bias - if you looked at GP's seasonal model winter forecast ( 6 to 7 weeks ago) many models went for J F M with blocking and a stronger signal in mid way through that period , its always been there , its not just made up , clearly this was linked ( rightly or wrongly ) to any SSW that may occur .
  6. I don't disagree the extremities of the UK will always miss out depending on where the ppn is coming from
  7. ECM is very good - people are obsessed with having an Easterly
  8. Well more fool you if you expected winter wonderland from Dec 1st , the noise was focussed on something called the SSW which was why comments of a back loaded winter were made . It was always thought we would have to wait until possibly Mid to late Jan into Feb ……….so here we are. Surely you cant really think every eye candy chart will come off , I'm afraid chasing the dream happens every winter and yet we still come back. Enjoy the next chase , which will start next weekend and IMO be fruitful for many
  9. I'm much more positive about cold hitting sooooon , background noise was for a colder end to Jan and a cold Feb , currently there is an indication this is on course . The MO also hints at this , the Models so far today are looking at a wintry outlook too , details will always be uncertain at this range . I'm anticipating some decent charts as we approach the end of the week into the weekend.
  10. I'm happy with the pattern change if ECM is to be believed , it could well make the last week of Jan quite interesting
  11. Have to say GEFS are interesting, and Easterly is still being sniffed at
  12. Lets just remember 48 hours ago , ECM charts were being posted with BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM as a headline Things can change quickly
  13. Can someone tell me 'if' ICON is so good why do people say " the big 3"
  14. Exactly , why can't people get that into their heads , yes commentary on runs is ok but to rule out other scenario's before seeing the ENS is foolish
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