Continental Arctic Front
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can't wait for the winter with this figure! hehe -
i'm holding back for a little month because it's still not evaluated by the prof. team. But when the blocking gets in the forecast around the end of november-dec and the OPI team aproves this OPI score then i will start to get excited (and more then usual! )
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OPI back to -1.89. Strange, in my opinion the 12z was better then the 06z.
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Beautiful 12z, the low pressure is even more scattered then in the 06z and higher geos above the arctic.
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That's a very nice value! If the OPI truly is right this year then it's gonna be an exciting winter to watch the models when the blocking begins to start in dec-jan.
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i'm looking at the 12z right now, and based on this run i see more blocking then the 06z on +96hr, so you can be right. i'm also glad to see that the OPI has dropped again in the 06z. The change of ending below -1.5 is realistic i think
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The current 12z is also not good, the vortex is activating it seems.
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Me neither, but -1.8 is also a good value, the "breaking point" was -1.5 OPI i thought? And thats true about UKMO, but the model calculates more pressure over eastern Siberia on 144hr, i dont see that in the EC and GFS run.
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OPI update.. -1.86, well i didn't see that one coming! Especially when you saw the graph of past year when it was stabilizing.
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It seems that this GFS oper has the least blocking if you compare with EC00z and GEM12z. Looking forward to EC12z.. Hopefully the OPI doesnt becomes more then -2.5.
