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Geoffwood

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  1. Hi Interitus. Thanks for the link. I've spent some time on KNMI trying to view NCEP CFSR, but there appears to be a problem locating the 'land/sea mask'. I've mailed the siteminder to see if it can be resolved.I am intrigued by this data set as it doesn't follow the 'normal flow' as viewed through certain sites. I intend to contact Maine University to ask them why, from all the models, they choose CFSRv2. Hopefully they will be aware of the differences and be able to enlighten me. BTW. Do you have any particular faith in any of the models and if so, then why? Not a loaded question. Just inter
  2. I've just overlaid ClimateReanalyzer for this year to end of August with Dr Ryan Maue's data offering to view the correlation. It's obvious that the two are 'singing from the same hymn book'. There is a slight vertical offset due to differing climatological baselines. CR uses 1979-2000, where Dr Maue uses 1981-2010, giving different anomalies. CR is not at daily resolution, I only had time to plot at 5day intervals approximately.
  3. Hi BFTV. Thanks for the link.From the above, I am surprised at the temperature difference shown for 'surface' as opposed to 1000mb as a default. 1000mb is significantly warmer than the surface!!!! Anyway, I am pleased that you are happy with NCEP CFSR as it is described as a 'state of the art','high resolution', 'third generation model'. I still remain uncomfortable with the lack of correlation between NCEP data as processed by NOAA and that same data shown as a time series by Maine University and Weatherbell's Dr Maue. As far as I am aware what is taken is the input data from the start of
  4. Hi BFTV. Hope you are well. Interesting to see the NCEP CFSR data you have provided. I've spent some time looking at similar data provided by Dr Ryan Maue through Weatherbell' open site and 'climate reanalyzer'; http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalysis_monthly/tseries.php If you select CFSR it shows NCEP CFSR Temp at 2m 1000mb September World This shows five Septembers from 2002 to 2007 above 15.8degC! I am a little disappointed at the level of disagreement between the two data sets and yours given their common data source. For instance you have Sept 2015 as the warmest on record at
  5. stewfox, "Topology the holy grail that's used to explain the differences but is it ? How do we know that in the Arctic winter, without the constraint of the Canadian and Siberian coasts, sea ice wouldn’t be increasing there, which would perhaps make this Antarctic phenomenon less of a peculiarity?" We don't know stew', because of the topology.
  6. 4wd. I find it strange that more often than not hemispheres are treated separately. Granted they differ due to topology but sometimes we have a parallel experiment. When polar jet streams become meridional from zonal in both hemispheres and one has less ice and the other more, we have to be careful about blaming it upon sea ice, for example. I find it very difficult on either post to not encompass both in my reasoning. What do you think?
  7. mullender83, Phenomenal. Look forward to seeing this on the news tonight! Do you not feel that the media and scientific opinion and consensus are going to be proven wrong in due course?
  8. mullender83, hopefully Antarctic sea ice won't go up any higher. The heat capacity and thermal lag of the Southern Hemisphere makes Antarctic sea ice a long term integrator of thermal change. Obviously the heat entering the oceans and the illusion of back radiative forcing are insufficient to stop the sea freezing when it should (according to mainstream climate science) just melt away. Maybe something more obvious, like changes in the energy supply, the old bright thing up above that climate science forgot. Perhaps. Hey, is mentioning the current and prolonged solar downturn off topic here?
  9. Stewfox, I think you are seeing through some of the wool being pulled. If it's warmer ice melts if it's cooler water, either fresh or salt, freezes. Well spotted that less ice forms near the melting area. Ice makes a great integrator of flux, unlike temperature which is a non linear and already averaged function, the average of which is dependent upon the weighting algorithm.
  10. stewfox, "I hope so because you have already been told and you seem to encourage confrontation This thread has been without it for the last 3/4 years." Sorry that you feel that way stew'. Sometimes I can't help coming back with a little humour and bending the rules a little. It's a weakness! It was never my intention to offend. We are all adults, I assume, and capable of defending our opinions. I am quite sensitive to arguments that individuals cannot substantiate from basics. If I sense that then I will make comment. I react to others and treat them largely as they treat me. I have
  11. oldsnowywizard, thanks for the reply. Yes DMI is showing rapid, systematic decline and as you report, without the often massive spiking up we often see. The drivers that produce these spikes are the key to understanding the winter high temp anomalies. They are likely to be due to circulation patterns. It is interesting but obvious to note that if we believe that the climate can vary, then ocean heat content does not buffer this effect. Rather the effect drives the flux into or out of the ocean. May seem backward, but every temperature downturn is immediately preceded by warmth and vice ve
  12. Ok. So I could be in trouble if I stick this in here! Cryosphere showing 'all time record high extent' for Antarctic sea ice! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html Guess that must be the warming effect of CO2?
  13. Is observation of current levels of Antarctic sea ice considered off topic? Is consideration of global sea ice off topic?
  14. Hi knocker. Thanks for the reply. You say, "I don't rule out natural variations and never have done but I don't know enough about 1850 and 1903 to give a detailed answer." Well you know the North West Passage was open those years because it was navigable. What would your 'gut instinct' tell you about Arctic conditions during and around those years, with knowledge that you believe rapid changes are 'unnatural'? You also say, " But regarding the Halocene as you no doubt already know the temperature construction is very complicated. It varies regionally, seasonally and from early, middle and
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