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mhielte

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Everything posted by mhielte

  1. Absolutely! It's correct of course to draw an unsettled conclusion from the charts but the video you link to explains the nuances of the output very well. It is telling to see the usual names pop up when low pressure is dominating as they take great pleasure (yes, they really do) in stating that conditions every day will be rainy and cold. Guess what? We've had trough domination this week yet sveral days here, and in other places, have been usable and fair thanks to the nature of showers being hit and miss. Next week will be the same. Then you get these short windows (Fri/Sat) when the nearby heat pump pays a passing visit and you're reminded that's actually against the norm and a real treat. I daresay 7-10 days ago the GFS/ECM whatever had the trough slap bang over us rather than just to the west. Yes the outlook isn't brilliant in the next 7-10 days, but it isn't the washout that some want it to be edit: point proven above!
  2. I would also like to know the answer to this from @damianslaw. Unlike the other posters who have a clear agenda, Damian is very knowledgeable and level-headed, so I am keen to know his reasons behind writing off the entirety of summer
  3. Random question: Does anyone have a working link to a Bridlington webcam that shows the beach? I'm struggling to find anything online TIA!
  4. Bring it on, let's get a more changeable and unsettled period out of the way early July, perhaps for a couple of weeks and then by the time the school holidays come round bring back a limpet UK high
  5. I wouldn't worry about any mid-level cloud turning sunshine hazy. Developments will be explosive later, as was illustrated yesterday. Cells reached maturity very fast indeed and once we get going properly, we'll know about it. Plenty of time for those in the risk areas.
  6. It is definitely not a warm outlook to close out May (and meteorological spring), but I'd hold off saying it looks firmly unsettled (it doesn't). GFS looks rotten for Iberia, not the UK.
  7. It has always been marginal for the very low lying areas <100m, that's not changed. My current work location is above 200m in north Sheffield and it's 8-10cm comfortably away from roads and pavements.
  8. I'm working IT in north Sheffield today and it has picked up a fair bit in the last half hour. Surfaces that were struggling to get cover are now completely white. As Tim says other surfaces have quite a bit already.
  9. Please ignore the graphics, they are irrelevant today. It's 9:30am. Those in the amber warning need not worry.
  10. Would think as the system pushes northwards that those in the snow at first - so the south - would see it turn back to rain as the milder air heads in. Could be a tricky commute though!
  11. Ties in with Thursday's Met Office warning text with areas in the south of the warning zone occasionally seeing sleet or rain, especially at lower elevations. It'll be a fluid situation for sure!
  12. Yes little faith in this snizzle this morning, perhaps something a bit better scraping in later on, as per the warning. For now the light stuff is up in the clouds and evaporating before it precipitates.
  13. Any thing today is just a bonus, one would think. I'm not convinced even if we do get something from the southwest today that a) it'll be of any notable intensity and b) that enough will fall to settle. That being said, the Met Office apps are bullish for this afternoon so I guess we will see. Eyes to the skies
  14. I'm not sure there has been any real trend south of Thursday's system in the last day or two - merely just run to run variation. There was a trend south, a more marked one, before then which brought the likes of the far N of England/borders out of the game - basically the northern portion of the Met Office warning area. Since then though, it has been more about today's system being further north.
  15. Yes the 06z is better than the 00z for the reasons Paul states above. Overnight into Friday morning looks very snowy as the system pivots back southwards.
  16. The UKV and other hi-res models show today's rain/sleet/snow mix heading into the south of the county. I think some will be at risk of snow from the bigger showers coming inland from the North Sea, too. There is quite a lot going on, it must be said!
  17. Isn't the low already on its way back south by then anyway? It does pivot back overnight into Friday. If we could see the Thursday 18z FAX it would likely be a little north, no?
  18. More in line with the 12zs from GFS and ARPEGE models this afternoon A consensus emerging, dare we say it?
  19. GFS has our region at zero or negative dewpoints throughout, so I think it won't matter much if the temperature is above freezing. Given the precipitation should be decent as well, evaporative cooling will play a part, too. As you have said as well, GFS has provided us with a nice southward shift this afternoon. ARPEGE 12z remains consistent to its earlier runs as well.
  20. I know not far from me in Sheffield there was a surprise snow event on a Sunday in December. It was at the beginning of that cold spell and it was not forecast. The small area of precipitation gave many areas there a good covering that didn't shift for a week. As you say, no point worrying about precipitation as the models will chop and change
  21. When has it ever been useful to average out the temperatures and weather conditions across an entire country? Especially one as varied as the UK. I just do not understand such a viewpoint.
  22. Wise words, Nick. Especially that last line given some of the usual dramatics this morning!
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