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Everything posted by mhielte
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
mhielte replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely! It's correct of course to draw an unsettled conclusion from the charts but the video you link to explains the nuances of the output very well. It is telling to see the usual names pop up when low pressure is dominating as they take great pleasure (yes, they really do) in stating that conditions every day will be rainy and cold. Guess what? We've had trough domination this week yet sveral days here, and in other places, have been usable and fair thanks to the nature of showers being hit and miss. Next week will be the same. Then you get these short windows (Fri/Sat) when the nearby heat pump pays a passing visit and you're reminded that's actually against the norm and a real treat. I daresay 7-10 days ago the GFS/ECM whatever had the trough slap bang over us rather than just to the west. Yes the outlook isn't brilliant in the next 7-10 days, but it isn't the washout that some want it to be edit: point proven above! -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
mhielte replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would also like to know the answer to this from @damianslaw. Unlike the other posters who have a clear agenda, Damian is very knowledgeable and level-headed, so I am keen to know his reasons behind writing off the entirety of summer -
Random question: Does anyone have a working link to a Bridlington webcam that shows the beach? I'm struggling to find anything online TIA!
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
mhielte replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bring it on, let's get a more changeable and unsettled period out of the way early July, perhaps for a couple of weeks and then by the time the school holidays come round bring back a limpet UK high -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
mhielte replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An outlying GFS and a dodgy seasonal I think! -
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
mhielte replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I wouldn't worry about any mid-level cloud turning sunshine hazy. Developments will be explosive later, as was illustrated yesterday. Cells reached maturity very fast indeed and once we get going properly, we'll know about it. Plenty of time for those in the risk areas. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
mhielte replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is definitely not a warm outlook to close out May (and meteorological spring), but I'd hold off saying it looks firmly unsettled (it doesn't). GFS looks rotten for Iberia, not the UK. -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
mhielte replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would think as the system pushes northwards that those in the snow at first - so the south - would see it turn back to rain as the milder air heads in. Could be a tricky commute though! -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
mhielte replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ties in with Thursday's Met Office warning text with areas in the south of the warning zone occasionally seeing sleet or rain, especially at lower elevations. It'll be a fluid situation for sure! -
Any thing today is just a bonus, one would think. I'm not convinced even if we do get something from the southwest today that a) it'll be of any notable intensity and b) that enough will fall to settle. That being said, the Met Office apps are bullish for this afternoon so I guess we will see. Eyes to the skies
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
mhielte replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not sure there has been any real trend south of Thursday's system in the last day or two - merely just run to run variation. There was a trend south, a more marked one, before then which brought the likes of the far N of England/borders out of the game - basically the northern portion of the Met Office warning area. Since then though, it has been more about today's system being further north. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
mhielte replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Isn't the low already on its way back south by then anyway? It does pivot back overnight into Friday. If we could see the Thursday 18z FAX it would likely be a little north, no? -
GFS has our region at zero or negative dewpoints throughout, so I think it won't matter much if the temperature is above freezing. Given the precipitation should be decent as well, evaporative cooling will play a part, too. As you have said as well, GFS has provided us with a nice southward shift this afternoon. ARPEGE 12z remains consistent to its earlier runs as well.
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
mhielte replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know not far from me in Sheffield there was a surprise snow event on a Sunday in December. It was at the beginning of that cold spell and it was not forecast. The small area of precipitation gave many areas there a good covering that didn't shift for a week. As you say, no point worrying about precipitation as the models will chop and change -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mhielte replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When has it ever been useful to average out the temperatures and weather conditions across an entire country? Especially one as varied as the UK. I just do not understand such a viewpoint. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mhielte replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wise words, Nick. Especially that last line given some of the usual dramatics this morning!