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mhielte

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    Barnsley
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    Thunderstorms, music, sports, TV and film.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms

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  1. I think I would complain if that verified in mid-December; the 850s aren't nearly cold enough for anything other than a bit of wintriness further north. It'd be cool and showery elsewhere with a keen windchill but not nearly cold enough for snow. Then again, it's one chart deep in FI and not really worth any serious consideration
  2. I mentioned over on TWO that those automated figures are at odds with their own article on the website which talks up the heatwave potential with low 30's possible further south, high 20's widely. I expect the automated figures will rise this weekend, but perhaps not too dramatically.
  3. I think 'very cold' is a rather extreme description!
  4. Yep, a lot of respect to those who are putting their reputations on the line! Wouldn't want to be in charge of forecasting this setup
  5. Why is it highly unlikely to come off? The ECM has been very consistent recently with the easterly cluster on the ensembles an ever-growing presence. It's far from certain, but I'd say the chances are pretty good
  6. The 6z is about as bad as it gets. Hoping it is a big outlier on the ensembles. I'd rather it go zonal than back to the featureless crud of this output.
  7. That isn't at all surprising. Our little island makes a big noise It's another reason why I'm staggered some can dismiss our cold prospects given the spread of options available. I'd love to be confident about our chances for sustained cold but it is impossible to be! Time to enjoy the New Year northerly and see what the models tease us with afterwards
  8. That's not enough for people though. They want snowmaggeddon and a standard northerly with coastal snow showers is not deemed good enough. We are treated to more data than ever to pore through and it has made us greedy and unappreciative of our climate unless it is extreme.
  9. Credit to you if you can call two weeks ahead so confidently! Sod's law might back you though...
  10. Huge scatter after the 7th though. Really anything could happen! Exciting but nerve-wracking all the same.
  11. Really value analysis like this. Great post That said maybe we know too much sometimes. I'm sure I was far less stressed than this viewing the 5-day forecast on Ceefax back in the day. Page 406 I think it was
  12. Well he can, and he did. However the GFS op is way out on its own after the 6th. Matt is a knowledgeable chap but he jumped the gun a little on this one!
  13. Neither is the GFS. You forget that when the ECM ballsed up the Dec 2012 easterly, the GFS correctly predicted the Atlantic making inroads. We can rank and slate the models all we like, but ignore any output at your peril.
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