Nouska

I've already posted some of the interesting results from the European SWARM satellite but this is really intriguing in light of some research that links solar core magnetism to that of the core of earth. A jet stream accelerating at high speed, in high latitudes, deep in earth's core - could this have any implication on the surface patterns? Hopefully the courtesy link to full article works - it looks rather long. http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2859.epdf?referrer_access_token=5mBZ_WSWTB7UhGSeCnNSItRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PmsEc3G31WFfVT1PriGtJTaR0HLPfAWbii_7PtlU1mK7i05sQIIH1nSzUJZB1m_vk9uJQKnYUCPnpl0urzXsKW_ytxvFrbabjaBglf7nUGEQ5-jXvyVihVn2iAaocIiKbGCX3Ocg0snCWB7QS43VpOr0ydw6nH8yn6Im2tiC-Q8Q%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.com

An earlier paper talks about autumn/early winter response being a negative NAO one - this new work is more region specific but maybe assume the NAO comment is as before? http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/screen.seaice_atm_impacts.jclim13.pdf I do think it has a place in an in-depth model thread as long as we stick to the subject with reference to models and not the debate on causes. I'm sure we were seeing modelling difficulties last autumn due to the incredible temperature contrasts at high latitudes. Edit to include another recent paper on the same subject. http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/51159/1/jcli-d-15-0316%2E1.pdf The model simulation in two monthly segments - showing the parameters we all look at in the NWP.

I think people get carried away, thinking the SPV is gone, when looking at only the 10mb temperature plots. It is in a very healthy state currently.... Forecast is for another displacement episode at the end of the GFS run - almost an end of January redux ... @Singularity - the papers/write ups you refer to are near the end of the previous stratosphere thread. One heavily pointed to a super Nino connection - another said that the signal was not of tropical origin, rather from mid latitude wave activity. I don't see any anomaly during the '97 -'98 progression.

There is a Climate Science forum on here - crying out for some interesting debate from new contributors - this is not the place for it, but just regarding the part of your post I have highlighted. http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2017-8/cp-2017-8.pdf @sebastiaan1973 Low solar influence on European winter temps reanalysed over a 350 year time span - only 10% fit into that category! There's no reason to suppose one of your good winters can not be replicated in the not too distant future since those occurred during and just after last minimum - another minimum fast approaching.

UKMO and here's the actual sea level pressure to date. They really pinpointed the centres of high pressure well but they had a mare in the Temp department for Eurasia.

Agree with the previous comments re QBO etc but have to take issue with your reference to the SAI. It was a marker for European cold - spot on for this winter! The bulk of mainland Europe has had few mild episodes and some of the cold ones have been exceptional. It is sad you were not able to share that but there is always next winter when the other pointers to cold may be robust enough to get it over the North sea. Just to add - did anybody look at the post I made last night about an almost identical phase/timing of MJO in 1988 - the Greenland high did not materialise till two weeks after peak of phase 8.

We are nearly there at 10hPa .... and slowly reducing below that level - bar upsets like last year, it should be east by the business end of the year. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2016.dat http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2017.dat Just to add the last four solar rotations - geomag remaining low but check out the years on the link below to see what it looked like during and after minimum in 2008 and 2009 http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html

Hi, John - a question. I'm useless with all the criss cross lines on the skew T diagrams - prefer the cuts on Meteociel. Today is just a flat strat picture but tomorrow shows plenty of lift to get convective cloud higher up and blown in. Is that just a matter of slightly colder temps aloft than today or some other ingredient? Cut is from Lincolnshire out into N Sea. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupes_arpege.php?region=uk&ech=3&mode=2

Oh Nick, sheesh! It's not an Indian Ocean Dipole - that's neutral currently. It is an IOBW (Indian Ocean Basin Wide) cool event. There's a different atmosphere response to that.... if you want to be driven mad or drive the readers to the drinks cabinet. In the dropdown menu. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/month.html

A bit more time now and have been able to look at month specifics - the 1988 event is probably the closest to what is anticipated in the forecast - the other years had different timing and little foibles of amplitude and direction. Forecast. Feb '88 The composites for February and March 1988. The ERA reanalysis for 15th February onwards as it's interesting to see what weather patterns went with it. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=2&hour=0&year=1988&map=0&region=nh&mode=2&type=era Only part of the story and events in the stratosphere may completely change the picture anyway. @nick sussex mostly solid Nina.

Very briefly as I'm not at home for all the desktop links. An animation of the 200 hPa stream function (jet stream level) of the different phases of the MJO. The little phase 'clock' (top right) shows the heights building over eastern Canada and Greenland as the 'hand' passes through phase 8 -1. http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html That's a very rough interpretation as it is not a fixed entity - depends on season and amplitude as well as Kelvin waves and tropical cyclone activity.

Be careful when looking at composites for MJO phasing. Joe Bastardi tweeted something yesterday - February high amplitude phase 8 was rare in the record. That made me have a look at the years and do my own composites. The years are 2001 - 1999 - 1990 and 1988. I've include 2008 as the CHI progression was much higher amplitude than the OLR one - not sure if that makes an overall difference. The composite reanalysis of the five years for February and March. Composites, by their nature, are a blend of the years involved but could there be a clue in the above as to what to expect in a few weeks time. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/index.html

This thread is looking rather lonely and the other one, I hope, has reached its nadir today. People are fretting about the Scandinavian block sinking but have they really looked at why that is being modelled. An animation... Where's the Atlantic in the picture? It is not sinking because of a raging Atlantic jet stream riding over the top - it is being sunk by a huge chunk of Siberian vortex putting pressure on it! What happens when you sit on a big round beanbag; it squishes out to the sides ...on one side is Greenland. As @MattHugo says in the model thread, give it time and have a bit of patience.

Even the GFS has easterly winds over the UK till late next week and with the forecast windchill - it will feel very cold to the bulk of the population watching his forecast. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-moyen/3h.htm http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/windchill/3h.htm

Would that not be a perfect opportunity to use the new 'slower' model thread. I'm sure many of us would like to read the explanation and reap the benefit of all your years of experience. There are statistics for Europe - the WMO collate them but only update monthly. @johnholmes link for WMO verification. http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

Psssstt...... The daily ECM 00Z may not have been great but the monthly run from same time frame comes up with goodies.

Surely Ian Fergusson is talking about the upper cold pool needed for instability for convective shower development. That has certainly been reduced and moved south in comparison to the midnight run. 00Z 12Z Fiddling with reverse on the ARPEGE. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php There's enough dubiety and options to make dissection useless at this point in time.

Since there is a lull between model runs, let's take the link for the UKMO 168 hour forecast and use it for what it is designed for - ie tropical weather forecasting. The three main models at the day seven period. You may wonder why I'm using a southern hemisphere view - it is best for looking at the broader picture MJO as it spans the equator. GFS UKMO ECM That all looks in good agreement - there's a function, top left, (pink strip right above chart) for looping comparison of the models for each day of forecast; very useful! Anybody spot some tropical situation for ECM to be out of step? https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ For people new to this, Adrian Matthews offers simple to understand discussion and animations of how the atmosphere responds. http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html On the subject of what interactions are taking place above the North sea and the land mass of the east coast - try using the vertical atmosphere forecast from the GFS. Main page for making your own cut. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupes_gfs.php I've done one from Lincolnshire out into the sea to let you use the parameters without fiddling about. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupe2.php?mode=1&archive=0&ech=81&x1=258&x2=441&y1=52&y2=51&latlon=&newmode=1&couchehaut=250&couchebas=1000

The BBC weather men talking as if this is a key ingredient.

Oh yes indeed! I bet there are few examples of that in the archives - stunning wedges of heights over both ends of the axis - that split should last a while.

@skifreak I would think it is fairly rare. Working purely from stratosphere profile analogues, takes me to February 1991 and March 2013 for similar 850 temperatures. 1991 2013 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=2&hour=0&year=1991&map=1&region=&mode=2&type=era http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=3&hour=0&year=2013&map=1&region=&mode=2&type=era On the ERA link you can view a variety of parameters at six hourly time steps in the format of a model run. Goes back to 1979.

Yes, 144 hours on latest run .. wind direction and thetaE for same timeframe. There will be a raw windchill at the surface but it doesn't produce the goods that people are looking for.

No technical SSW in 1991 but this year following a very similar script as @bobbydog has been commenting on in the model thread. Strong warming end of January '91 (Note core cold centred to north of UK as was the case last week.) The vortex partly splits into two lobes and is rapidly followed by development of Scandinavian high pressure. I cannot see if this is up or down influence as no archive of the different levels from back then. The vortex reformed by mid month and allowed the Atlantic train back on the tracks. Looking at the GFS strat forecast and reading between the lines of a Fergieweather tweet about GloSea - a proper and lasting split may follow this one but as to what the surface conditions would be to see out February and usher in Spring ..... We know a cold March can follow a decent split from the events of 2013 but the picture is far from the scattered vortex profile that was present at this stage in 2013. An edit to add the archived MJO chart from February 1991 - similar phasing to current forecast but a much lower amplitude.

This will please those who were looking at comparisons with 1991 - similar distribution of the separate lobes and a proper split this time. 06Z1991

No wonder there is a red warning out for wind - this is the forecast mean 2 metre wind speeds.