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Nouska

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Everything posted by Nouska

  1. For somebody under severe drought restrictions, the mind boggles at the inches of water about to fall on Texas!

    model_model_modez_2017082500_168_490_220

     

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. Nouska

      Nouska

      I am in the Lot et Garonne - on a map of France, half way between Bergerac and Agen.

    3. karyo

      karyo

      Ok I see, a fair distance from Ariege.

    4. Nouska

      Nouska

      Oops - a malfunction of the image saving device. Latest run of ECM has even higher totals.:help:

      TEXAS.thumb.png.49e8c04a781c73e0ce173c661060fd55.png

       

       

       

       

  2. I've recently been reading the write up on the persistent Arctic cyclone of August 2016 ..... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.757/full Are we going to see a reprise for 2017?
  3. Tropical Tidbits has a useful feature for looking at the Atlantic basin - you can go back three days on the model and thus see where this low has genesis. The energy is generated from the remnants of tropical storm Emily and a train of little tropical waves that are circulating round the high. Emily over Florida on first of August. Then follow the run and see the development. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017080300&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=114
  4. Very simply, tropical convection needs a moist atmosphere at height to get the hurricane building towers to develop and thus form a stable core. The dry Saharan air aloft inhibits this ability and it also cause disruptive shear. There is a very strong CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) due in the Atlantic next week - that should moisten out the upper layers and may lead to some development for later in August. Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Environmental Conditions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1
  5. If you read any of Ant Masiello's tweets you'll have noticed that he was suggesting the Atlantic would become more active after the solar burst in mid July. Might just be coincident but pattern changed substantially following the most recent geomag events. Some recent research and it is not behind a paywall. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2782/full A useful tool for checking detail on current activity. https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/
  6. I cannot answer for Singularity but I take it that he refers to the lack of a proven connection in the literature rather than a lack of understanding among the scientific community. I've not seen any teleconnection graphics on any of the big science sites that point to a strong link between Pacific placed convection and UK summer weather. There is a tentative suggestion that Indian Ocean activity may have more influence. As an aside and purely just a thought - the last time we saw such a UK centred cut off low - solar activity was rapidly declining and looked very similar to this:- Another summer where long range models showed vast swathes of positive heights but failed to pick up the tiny and persistent trough that blighted UK summer.
  7. No, but there should have been a super-majority built into the vote, as there usually is on major constitutional change. This to take account of a minority who will vote by reason of protest/ keech stirring/ ignorance.
  8. It's one of this seasons hatchings - typically uniform grey except for the 'baby' speckling on the breast feathers.
  9. Re the conversation about Yorkshire - checking the 00Z ECM det and 06Z UKMO (via London WAFC) looking pretty cloudy and wet tomorrow afternoon. As of this recent run, thunderstorms are expected at 15Z as witnessed by the CB hazard charts.
  10. It does! Read numbers from right (10hPa) to left (70hPa) for progression downwards. Months are the second column on the left. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat
  11. The French models have soundings and hodographs - ARPEGE for all UK and the south only on AROME http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_arpege.php?region=uk&ech=3&mode=2&wrf=0
  12. AROME has a little patch of 33C NNE of London - you might be right in your assumption. Fun to see what the model anticipates for tomorrow in sim-sat IR format.
  13. The week three ECM height anomaly chart shows lower heights straddling the north of the UK and the focus of the ridge down to the SW. This configuration shows a rainfall deficit. We know that the models, particularly GFS, have been frequently trying to introduce low heights in the late stages of the runs but as time counts down, the ridging has the won the day. Whether it continues to be the case, time will tell. So far, this summer, the EC has had a better performance than it did in winter - it would be very unusual for no breakdowns in summer and even if two weeks hence turns out as modelled, that is no predictor of what is in store for the rest of summer.
  14. Arpege showing a little pocket of 27C for the north of London and the first 40C of the summer for down here. As I said in a status comment, forecasts for here will see June 2003 well beaten - l wonder if some of the suggestions of dangerous heat will come to fruition?
  15. I've lifted this from the in depth model thread as it seems pertinent in view of the lovely 12Z run from the GFS. Nice assessment from GP, all based on teleconnections. You are suffering the 2007 bit currently (get it out of the way quick ) but the 1995 redux is showing in all its glory from next weekend. Just a reminder of what the charts looked like for back then. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=6&hour=12&year=1995&map=0&region=&mode=2&type=era
  16. He might not be talking nonsense as far as June is concerned - newly updated EC seasonal has a warm but very wet outlook for this month. You'll all be pleased to note that the picture for July and August is for above average temps with a very dry signature.
  17. A new paper looking at long period central Pacific ENSO trends. Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15386 Discussion highlights. Taken together, our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has had a profound effect on SSTs in the CP, whereby anomalous warming over the last decades is accompanied by an increase in interannual variance. NIÑO4 SST values over the last two decades are likely higher than natural variations over the last 818 years, owing to a combination of relatively high CP ENSO activity and a late 20th century warming trend. In light of our results, it seems plausible that the dominance of CP ENSO extremes in the first two decades of the twenty-first century may continue, albeit with some important caveats. First, the global climate impacts of future CP ENSO extremes will critically depend on the evolution of the mean climate state in the tropical Pacific36,37, which itself is poorly constrained at present. Second, the new Taiwan tree δ18O record is the newest addition to growing archive of high-resolution paleo-data sets that can be used to probe the sensitivity of tropical Pacific climate to a variety of external climatic forcings over the recent past. One such example comes from the early- to mid-Holocene, when some models and data suggest that processional insolation forcing may have driven a shift towards greater CP ENSO activity and less East Pacific ENSO activity37. Should the dominance of CP ENSO extremes continue in the coming decades, investigations of the causes, and consequences, of any past shifts towards CP ENSO may provide some clues about future tropical Pacific climate trends and their global impacts.
  18. How much of that is because we are being 'primed' to dislike the man? Some elements of the Labour package are less than ideal but as for the man himself, I see nothing to deserve the media hounding he has been subjected to. Too much made of dismissing his negotiating skills - for the horse trading to come, the calm and passive may be more effective than the strident and abrasive posturing we see currently. I have no vested interest in either party - just an observation - psychology is a strange beast and there are many ways to 'skin a cat'..
  19. Could it be because it is such an ugly and clumsy way to examine a sensitive subject. The majority of rapes go unreported but now, nine months down the line, the authorities are going to have to back track all these reports and consider evidence available. There are likely to be many more rapes reported - just in case - I believe it is necessary to prove that you reported it at the time? A saving in one department will be a cost to another and police investigations don't come cheap! My suggestion would be a sliding scale of tax credits for a maximum of three children and leave it at that.
  20. There would have been no Brexit effect under any other administration ... I doubt even the Tories expected it, in reality!
  21. For once, not behind a paywall. http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14375#f2
  22. I see the NCAR CESM is the only model in the N. American suite that does not develop a proper Nino signature for the summer. It is quite alone in having a cold patch in the ENSO region for this month and next. It's also forecasting a warm summer for the UK... All the outlooks from the suite here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/
  23. Great report there! Would you say that it was a bona fide case of the polar vortex visiting the UK? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=12&hour=0&year=1906&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep
  24. After another false lead in February - where to, this month.... I doubt it will be average but best to pick that as options seem to be either very mild or quite cool - depending on ridge/trough placement. 6,8C.
  25. This is true - but the Brits have settled under the auspices of the EU and it is necessary, IMO, for some directive to be issued. Can you imagine the furore if some countries allowed continued residence and others deported should some nasty 'tit for tat horse trading' ensue in acrimonious negotiations!
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