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Nouska

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Nouska last won the day on September 19 2016

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  • Gender
    Female
  • Location
    Surrey and SW France.
  • Interests
    Learning a new science to keep the ageing grey cells out of mischief.

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  1. For somebody under severe drought restrictions, the mind boggles at the inches of water about to fall on Texas!

    model_model_modez_2017082500_168_490_220

     

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. Nouska

      Nouska

      I am in the Lot et Garonne - on a map of France, half way between Bergerac and Agen.

    3. karyo

      karyo

      Ok I see, a fair distance from Ariege.

    4. Nouska

      Nouska

      Oops - a malfunction of the image saving device. Latest run of ECM has even higher totals.:help:

      TEXAS.thumb.png.49e8c04a781c73e0ce173c661060fd55.png

       

       

       

       

  2. I've recently been reading the write up on the persistent Arctic cyclone of August 2016 ..... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.757/full Are we going to see a reprise for 2017?
  3. Tropical Tidbits has a useful feature for looking at the Atlantic basin - you can go back three days on the model and thus see where this low has genesis. The energy is generated from the remnants of tropical storm Emily and a train of little tropical waves that are circulating round the high. Emily over Florida on first of August. Then follow the run and see the development. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017080300&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=114
  4. Very simply, tropical convection needs a moist atmosphere at height to get the hurricane building towers to develop and thus form a stable core. The dry Saharan air aloft inhibits this ability and it also cause disruptive shear. There is a very strong CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) due in the Atlantic next week - that should moisten out the upper layers and may lead to some development for later in August. Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Environmental Conditions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1
  5. Nouska

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    If you read any of Ant Masiello's tweets you'll have noticed that he was suggesting the Atlantic would become more active after the solar burst in mid July. Might just be coincident but pattern changed substantially following the most recent geomag events. Some recent research and it is not behind a paywall. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2782/full A useful tool for checking detail on current activity. https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/
  6. I cannot answer for Singularity but I take it that he refers to the lack of a proven connection in the literature rather than a lack of understanding among the scientific community. I've not seen any teleconnection graphics on any of the big science sites that point to a strong link between Pacific placed convection and UK summer weather. There is a tentative suggestion that Indian Ocean activity may have more influence. As an aside and purely just a thought - the last time we saw such a UK centred cut off low - solar activity was rapidly declining and looked very similar to this:- Another summer where long range models showed vast swathes of positive heights but failed to pick up the tiny and persistent trough that blighted UK summer.
  7. It's one of this seasons hatchings - typically uniform grey except for the 'baby' speckling on the breast feathers.
  8. Re the conversation about Yorkshire - checking the 00Z ECM det and 06Z UKMO (via London WAFC) looking pretty cloudy and wet tomorrow afternoon. As of this recent run, thunderstorms are expected at 15Z as witnessed by the CB hazard charts.
  9. It does! Read numbers from right (10hPa) to left (70hPa) for progression downwards. Months are the second column on the left. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat
  10. The French models have soundings and hodographs - ARPEGE for all UK and the south only on AROME http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_arpege.php?region=uk&ech=3&mode=2&wrf=0
  11. AROME has a little patch of 33C NNE of London - you might be right in your assumption. Fun to see what the model anticipates for tomorrow in sim-sat IR format.
  12. The week three ECM height anomaly chart shows lower heights straddling the north of the UK and the focus of the ridge down to the SW. This configuration shows a rainfall deficit. We know that the models, particularly GFS, have been frequently trying to introduce low heights in the late stages of the runs but as time counts down, the ridging has the won the day. Whether it continues to be the case, time will tell. So far, this summer, the EC has had a better performance than it did in winter - it would be very unusual for no breakdowns in summer and even if two weeks hence turns out as modelled, that is no predictor of what is in store for the rest of summer.
  13. Arpege showing a little pocket of 27C for the north of London and the first 40C of the summer for down here. As I said in a status comment, forecasts for here will see June 2003 well beaten - l wonder if some of the suggestions of dangerous heat will come to fruition?
  14. I've lifted this from the in depth model thread as it seems pertinent in view of the lovely 12Z run from the GFS. Nice assessment from GP, all based on teleconnections. You are suffering the 2007 bit currently (get it out of the way quick ) but the 1995 redux is showing in all its glory from next weekend. Just a reminder of what the charts looked like for back then. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=6&hour=12&year=1995&map=0&region=&mode=2&type=era
  15. Nouska

    Summer 2017 Discussion

    He might not be talking nonsense as far as June is concerned - newly updated EC seasonal has a warm but very wet outlook for this month. You'll all be pleased to note that the picture for July and August is for above average temps with a very dry signature.
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