Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

Members
  • Posts

    1,764
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Everything posted by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

  1. MIA - this is the bit that I'm very interested in (and somewhat concerned by). My basic understanding is that two particular elements are helping drive our, (as in the UK), recent (i.e. the last 18-24 months) dominant weather (procession of low pressures, very limited settled dry weather): 1. The reduction in the temperature difference between mid-latitudes and the Arctic weakening the northern polar jet and causing it (combined with other factors you've mentioned) to persist on a more southerly track. 2. Generally warmer air, therefore holding more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall associated with the procession of depressions. If this is generally correct does that not mean that this type of pattern is going to persist for potentially many years (at least in human terms i.e potentially 5-10 years) until the next 'level' of climate change kicks in and we move to the next phase? (however that manifests itself).
  2. I posted the above two days ago, so I thought it might be interesting to see how this experimental AI based model is looking now for the same timeframes: I'd say that's not bad at all, and certainly a bit more consistent than most of the main models? Interestingly it's also now showing the beginnings of retrogression later in the run: So whilst it seems the most likely outcome next week is a UK centred HP, (so cold, frosty, foggy but not a great deal of precipitation), this may indeed be the 'hors d'oeuvres' for those hoping for something more wintry.
  3. As this is all still well in FI I'm usually loth to comment (T90 is about where I start to get interested), but given the hysteria in here I thought I'd post the ECMWF Graphcast Google AI take on this (and I believe this model has been verifying better than any of the 'big 3' recently). Probably useful to view these with one eye on the latest UKMO output: So as some people have already pointed out, there's at least an evens chance this upcoming spell is a UK high setup, so cold/foggy, but mostly dry. And after that, the most common evolution is a south-easterly sink. Nothing decided yet, but a little early for euphoria/hysteria I'd have thought.
  4. Yes it's a bit sad, and yes it's criminal damage so someone might get fined for it, but the huge outpouring of grief over this single tree seems rather disproportionate given it's one sycamore. How many ancient oaks are being (needlessly) felled for HS2? How many mature trees are being felled every day for some spurious reason or other? Does this mean we're all going to be applauding the eco-activists who climb into trees to stop them being felled? (I hope so). If this results in a real increase in people standing against destruction of natural habitats then great, but I have my doubts......
  5. I think this would have a negative effect on the NW forums, both in terms of sowing discord and also potentially discouraging people from posting. The 'Like' option is at worst harmless and at best a positive encouragement (we all like a bit of community approval, no-one likes being judged negatively). If the worry is that posts liked multiple times get highlighted then stop highlighting posts, and associated gimics such as 'Won' days.
  6. Yes EVs are heavier and can accelerate harder, but are still a tiny minority of overall traffic. ALL cars have become much bigger and heavier over the last 20-30 years. However the major contributor to poor road surfaces is the huge cut to local authority funding which has happened over the last 12 years.
  7. Yep, the forecasts over the last 48 hours all had two fronts, the first less intense front passing across us this morning, followed by a second more active front, which is currently developing over North Wales and Midlands. Certainly there has been a northward shift of approx. 50 miles, which does move the 'marginality' line corresponding further north, but all along the amber warning was only for the higher parts of the western Pennines anyway. 50 miles, in forecasting terms, is inconsequential, so thus far it is still largely as was expected.
  8. Buffalo webcam, looks quite cold.......... Buffalo, New York – Elmwood Avenue North – Mr. Pizza - FirstWebcam FIRSTWEBCAM.COM Buffalo, New York Elmwood Ave. North from Mr. Pizza
  9. Went for a walk above Marsden today, a cm or two of snow on the ground, freezing fog and icy stretches. Some interesting icing on the fences along Standedge:
  10. Well the oil companies knew about it long before 1988: What Big Oil knew about climate change, in its own words THECONVERSATION.COM Transcripts and internal documents show how the industry shifted from leading research into fossil fuels’ effect on the climate to sowing doubt about science.
  11. Out on the bike today, 60 miles round the locality, and whilst it was hot it wasn't debilitating. However, I was shocked at the state of the reservoirs I passed, Brownhill, Winscar, Woodhead, Digley, Dowry, Readycon Dean, Scammonden all at best 50% full - if we don't get some meaningful rain over the next 6 weeks water shortages look very likely.
  12. Lets hope so Karl, and whilst other models are not quite as bullish as the GFS in terms of the strength of any high pressure and it's ability to deflect depressions up towards Iceland rather than across the UK, there does seem to be a general consensus at medium range i.e. T144-T192, that pressure is going to rise in our neck of the woods, which seems to be being encouraged by a retreat of the PV towards N.Canada rather than Greenland where it has been for the past few weeks: PV now: PV in 7 days: Thus allowing more persistent heights, (whether that be through a displaced Azores high or a more robust Euro high, or a bit of both), to build near or over the UK. But how accurate this forecast lessening of the PV over Greenland is, and consequently the associated depressions it spins up, remains to be confirmed - it'll be a few days yet before we can be more certain. But fingers crossed!
  13. Yes same here, some 55 mph gusts being shown on local weather stations, which is quite unusual this close to the town centre. Loads of litter being blown around in the air, which is often the best gauge of gust strength round here............
  14. After this Thursday / Friday's brief cold incursion the models all seem to be in agreement in the medium term of a much more familiar winter pattern for the UK, Azores high firmly ensconced to our SW, any high pressure to E / NE locked away over Russia, large low pressure systems being spun up to our NW, and being driven eastwards by a strong flat jet. In my experience once this pattern takes hold (as the models are currently suggesting that it will) then it can take quite a while to break free from it, and whilst I don't want to be Mr Gloomy (from a cold perspective) it wouldn't surprise me at all if we're soon in the 'lets see what the New Year brings' mode of model watching...........
  15. Largely unexpected 4 hours of snowfall just coming to an end, and giving 2-3 cms of cover. I wonder if we'll see a bigger fall the rest of this winter.......
  16. There is of course another vitally important consideration here in terms of the 'costs' i.e. economic damage of racing to a low carbon world - there is much evidence that whatever we do the world is headed for a huge economic 'shock' (to put it mildly). A quick illustration - 20 years ago the energy required to extract and refine oil was 10% of the output, i.e. for every ten barrels extracted the equivalent of one barrel was used up to get those ten barrels; that figure is now 25%, so for every four barrels extracted one is used up just getting the four, and this is predicted to deteriorate over the next twenty to thirty years to the point where we will be expending as much energy extracting and refining as energy generated. It doesn't take a genius to work out what effect that will have on the global economy......... This isn't about 'peak oil', we're not talking about supply drying up, that won't happen, it's about the economic viability of the process of utilisation of a particular energy source. So, there is in fact an entirely economic reason to get off our fossil fuel reliance asap, as the cost of failing to do so, even without climate change, is going to make the apparent costs of that transition seem inconsequential. Here's a link to one article, which includes links to some very detailed academic research: Oil System Collapsing so Fast it May Derail Renewables, Warn French Government Scientists – Byline Times BYLINETIMES.COM Forget ‘peak oil’. Nafeez Ahmed reveals how the oil and gas industries are cannibalising themselves as the costs of fossil fuel extraction mount
  17. Not so often a depression has such a visible centre just from rainfall radar patterns, but this is today's little feature: Quite impressive I thought.
  18. I've tried to remain positive this summer, and up until mid-July, at least for more northern parts, the summer was generally pretty good, but there's no way to sugar-coat the latest output from both main models, the next two weeks (at least) looks dire if you're after genuine summer weather i.e. full days of blue skies and warm temps. The set up is about as bad as it can be - a large trough anchored across the GIN corridor throwing an endless stream of depressions across the UK, pushing any ridging attempts by the Azores high to our south, and keeping any high pressure to our east firmly blocked over eastern Europe. Unfortunately we are currently in a period where anyone looking for a return of proper summer is looking well beyond the next two weeks, which of course takes us towards the back end of August, and whilst late August / early September can bring very nice weather, it doesn't bring scorching long hot days or true heatwaves. If we were going to see any more of those types of weather, it needed to be happening in the next two or three weeks, and it looks like that can now be safely written off.
  19. "Write-off"??? Since the beginning of June the weather has been by and large shorts and T-shirt weather, more than warm enough to enjoy being out and about most days. There have been a good few really nice days, and I can't recall a single 'howling gale, cold and rain' day since the end of May. Sure next week is a bit more unsettled, but it's not going to be wall to wall cold, wet and windy, and there will be dry and bright periods, before hopefully things start to settle down again (I know this is way out in FI but just to illustrate): In other words British summer weather.
  20. No need to panic about charts 10 days hence, especially rainfall charts. For the same date from latest GFS: To me the medium term semi-reliable outlook isn't looking too bad at all: And the longer term outlook is, as always, FI, with currently no particularly strong signals for anything - we might see a summery spell, we might see a 'May '21 revisit', or we might just see standard UK summertime weather.
  21. Fairly grey and still this morning in Hudds so I thought I'd get out on my bike. Went along A62 through Marsden and over Standedge, was pretty foggy at the top, but almost immediately cleared and by the time I'd dropped down to Diggle it was bright sunshine. Followed the road round then back up past Dovestones, again was bright sunshine all the way up, but I could see the fog bank at the top. Sure enough almost exactly at the crest I was back into fog, and by the time I got to Wessenden Head it was really thick (not that that seemed to be having much effect on the speed of the passing cars, and lights are obviously optional............), and bl**dy freezing, so very glad I'd decided to put on all my cold weather gear. Dropped down to Digley, turned left at Holme, and then grey all the way back through Holmfirth, and no chance to warm up all the way home, so was glad of the hot bath when i got in. A real example of an east - west split today, one of the rare occasions when I think I'd rather have been in Lancashire!
  22. Well, a really nice day here, the odd light shower but predominantly sunny - and for the first time this year I can feel some real warmth in the sun out of the wind. Probably about 2 cms of lying snow this morning, which is still largely intact in the shade, but mostly gone where the sun has got to work. Whilst this is a decent cold spell, sitting in the sun this morning having a cup of tea has really got me looking forward to spring.........
  23. I don't think the wind direction is due to veer to a true easterly until Thursday, (and then only briefly before swinging to a southerly), and by then it's pretty slack so largely irrelevant
  24. Agreed, but that is about cut-off time for heavy showers, especially in terms of progress inland. After that isobars widen as HP exerts more influence, wind slackens, and convection reduces, making it largely dry for the bulk of our region for tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday (the first Atlantic front dies over Ireland) and Friday. After that it's less certain, but right now we're looking dry and cold for the next seven days from midnight tonight.
×
×
  • Create New...