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  1. Lots of words being thrown about that are going completely over my head. Is a plume good or bad? (bearing in mind i'd like warm and dry weather) Are we on a knife edge in terms of thunder and heavy rain? To put in to simple words, i'm going to Glastonbury and will be on site Tues 25th - Mon 1st July and not knowing what weather I could be getting is breaking me!
  2. Just a point from a casual observer with very little knowledge of how to evaluate the model outputs, it would be shame for posters who articulate their points in such a good way to be put off posting due to the apparent trolling coming from others.
  3. Could someone explain to me (in layman terms) what FV3 is and why it's output is different from the standard GFS output? Is one considered more accurate / has a higher change of verifying than the other?
  4. As it's a bleak morning outside and the mood in here is seemingly low thought i'd just say a huge thanks to all who share their interpretation of the model outputs. I tend to only frequent or "lurk" within these forums in the run up to my beloved Glastonbury festival to see what ground conditions will be like in the weeks leading to it and also for overhead conditions when i'm on site myself. I love reading everyone's posts (although given it's only 2 and a half weeks away i'd love them to be more positive!) It's great to see how passionate everyone is! Keep up the good work all
  5. I've been following this thread with great interest. Thanks to all those who take their time to dissect the models for us less so able! Currently in the process of sending out a communication to all of my staff (Bristol / SW based) regarding the forecast disruption over the course of tomorrow and Friday. Looks to me as if we may get off lightly down here however...!
  6. On the plus side that'll mean the grass seed I put down last week will finally get a decent watering! On the down side the breakdown is happening all to close to Glastonbury for my liking with not too many signs of changing before I go to the festival on Tues 21st...
  7. I too am watching this breakdown with vested interest. The models don't look good for those in the South West who would love to see a continuation of dry weather (especially those at Glastonbury) It'll be interesting to see if the GFS pushes the low further South so the UK gets away with a near miss rather than feeling the full force. Is it likely that the rainfall will be heavy? or are we talking mm's rather than cm's?
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