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Everything posted by Generalelectrix

  1. [email protected] all Impressive thundersnow event over parts of Netherlands and NW Germany. Lucky buggers there Regards Ralph
  2. @ Mapantz: Thx for info, was it this chart you meant?: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif In this case it shifts to Denmark, and thats why I will wait till lunchtime tomorrow, draw end conclusion then Cheers Ralph
  3. Hi, it is most probably going to boil down to a nowcast event in the end, Lets closely check out the coming model runs and take it from there, see how things pan out, Vivensworld wrote a post pointing in a such direction. Too much can change at short notice before the anticipated event, we have witnessed this so often now. Things will get interesting as of tomorrow noon or so (model wise) Regards Ralph @ Alexisj9: There have been a couple of Sting jet events since 1987, the event needent be termed as apocalyptical, it is just an area where even stronger winds get mixed down to the surface from the jet at high altitude and should be taken into account..
  4. Hi @ all I hear talk of bombogenesis Theres no balls like snowballs wrote: Ferocious jet stream N.Atlantic. Developing wave mid Atlantic. Will cross central UK Thu night. Gales S. Snow N.Eng. very interesting second chart, cheers for posting Note the back bent occlusion, one of the signatures of a Keyser-Shapiro type cyclone..... somebody was asking about the possibility of a Sting Jet event... We shall have to watch the IR Satpic closely for an obvious dry intrusion then. regards Ralph Edit: @ Luke: Nice to see you in the forum again mate!
  5. Quote Poseidon: " Had a "nearly" thunderstorm cell here yesterday. Very low, very dark cloud base with a long swirling well defined gust front. Behind was that weird coloured sky that you sometimes get with a thunderstorm. Rained for a while with some gusty wind but no sferics in the end. It did produce plenty of lightning when it hit the North Sea though.." Jep, observed that one near Rayleigh yesterday evening. You could literally see the cloud base lower and the convection grow deeper as the cell started to draw in moist warm air from the North Sea. (The water is quite warm right now) Impressive it was. The cool gusts was the cold wind in the upper layers getting mixed down to ground level under the convection.. Ralph
  6. [email protected] all Had some business to do in Essex yesterday and it was evening when I was returning home via the Dartford bridge. At that time some forcing occurred and showers were popping up everywhere. Sometimes a traffic jam on the Bridge can have its positive aspects, the view was quite spectacular Unfortunately they were quite high based and low topped, so no T&L but did get a bucketing though near the Gatwick turnoff on the M25. Would have liked to post one or two charts explaining why that was so yesterday but the netweather server just doesnt seem to accept uploads from me, strange, but maybe its because Im just too daft or that Im a Kraut Next couple of days looking bleak, we need some more sustained warm weather to kick off some decent convection, hope next week pans out (although the different models have outputs which almost contradict each other) Lets wait and see. Cheers Ralph
  7. [email protected] all Interesting convection today in the London area, am there right now and took a little time to observe a promising cell developing NE of Farnham. followed it a bit toward Elstead, it fizzled shortly afterwards. Too high based and flat topped, no deep convection there. Also a (local?) dry intrusion had taken a substantial bite out of the Cb halfway up. Small dry intrusions can aid convection by causing evaporative cooling on the outer side of the cloud but today was just too much.... Hope something happens while im in the UK Cheers Ralph
  8. @ John Holmes: yes, indeed so, the upper layers ahead of warm fronts have such a high layer of moisture in them that the sky tends to get hazy and full of cirrus patches that the contrails arent easy to make out anymore, especially the closer the warm front gets to your location. Those contrails also consist of ice crystals, even if the warm air aloft preceeding the WF is not as "cold" as usual, it is nevertheless still below freezing point. Interesting to learn about the MINTRA level, it surely was important during daytime raids under clear skies, if you look at old footage you can see that piston engined planes running on petrol also spewed out a great deal of water vapour, and that made those flying fortresses visible from far, hence sitting ducks... Ralph
  9. [email protected] To answer Speedways question: Yes, your observation is connected to the rise of moisture level in the upper atmosphere, this is normally the case ahead of a cold front or disturbance, where large amounts of moisture are transported to high levels by deep convection such as Cumulonimbus clouds. (Thunderstorm exhaust gasses, so to speak ) This moist air is transported aloft ahead of a frontal or storm system and when jet aeroplanes fly through this level of air the hot exhaust gases from the turbines, which contain a lot of water as a product of the cumbustion of kerosene, will condensate to form ice crystals, the so called contrails. If the weather conditions are stable upstream and air aloft is dry the ice crystals sublime (go from a solid form directly to gaseous form) and the contrail disappears soon after the plane has passed. If the level of moisture is high then sublimation cannot take place and the contrail will stay in place for a long time or even spread when enough moisture up there spawns the formation of more ice crystals. Just for interests sake: have a look at an actual (not progged) Skew-t diagram made a few hours before a cold front crosses over. Ralph
  10. Hard to determine exact position of front right now: Cold sector getting a move on eatwards in the south, warm sector bulging back westwards in the midlands and to add some spice to it all a convergence line northwards. Quite tricky, ey? Ralph
  11. .....outflow triggered from the main storm, lets hope this organises and doesnt turn into a convective mess! Its reachin quite far south, maybe thats what the Heathrow mets were anticipating.. Ralph
  12. Looking at the Satpic loop, I would say: defo Right moving supercell. Can anyone of the spotters east of the storm confirm a rotating meso? cheers Ralph
  13. No, but also a good feature: Its a feeder line or flanking line, thats where the moist "Thunder Food" is getting drawn into potentially "El Brumo II" Ralph
  14. @ Speedway Slider: Supercell tracks are more often than not hard to predict, ATM it looks like a hit for Birmingham, Arnie better fire up Brumcam ..if it however takes on pronounced right-mover characteristics theres no telling where exactly it will go. Anyone in the vicinty who can confirm a rotating Meso (updraft) and the direction of rotation? Ralph
  15. @ Nick: If spotters further along its path up north can confirm a rotating meso in 30 minutes from now it can definitively be classified as such. Ralph
  16. Hi all That swindon storm has the potential for supercell classification soon, and I dont think its going to lose strength in the close future, its journeying along along what seems to be a line of convergence or a dryline... EL BRUMO II in the making perhaps? Ralph
  17. @ Reevesie1: Yes, but they probably are unsure as to where to position it, hence the delay, they are probably awaiting the last model run before the event and then draw serious conclusions from the SECOND LAST one Ralph
  18. Quote AWD: "Anywhere in C/S England. SE England, The Midlands, The West Country, East Wales, East Anglia and Southern Northern England look the place to be tonight. Anything could happen anywhere in the above areas. " Thats put the whole situation in a nutshell, with emphasis on "could" and "anywhere" The model outputs are running around in circles ATM, now it looks like quite some action for the west midlands in the early morning hours for a change, and I will await the last run before the event to see how it is NOT going to take place! (this is especially referring to GFS) We wait and see.... Ralph
  19. [email protected] Quote Willsy: "anyone recon last night was an mcc? (mesoscale convective complex) " no, definitely not, a MCC should have an area of cloud top 100000 sq kms at -32 deg C and 50000sq kms at -52 deg C and in addition maintain these properties for at least 6 hrs to be classified as such. Last night just was an organised squally line of storms, didnt even make it to a bow echo judging from the radar images, mind you it was close to becoming one by a whisker, an intensity I personally hadnt reckoned with TBH. Am pondering the charts right now Re tonight and tomorrow, surprise in store? Have to wait one further run.... Cheers Ralph
  20. Quote"just as we'll you don't live in Germany ,you would need a nappy , ........ " @ Mokidugway: Harhar, I AM in Germany on work ATM Had planned to come over to the UK over the WE, but who knows..... Ralph
  21. Hi @all Beginning to look very interesting surprisingly early in the event already, wow.. Harry posted a question a bit earlier on: quote:"Does anyone have any thoughts on the potential for an MCS Saturday night also?" This model is pretty much more often correct than not IMO http://www.modellzentrale.de/WRF/animate2b.htm?../12Z/?25?h/maxDBZ_eu.png?3?0 Edit: Excuse moi, I thought this link would send you straight to the Piccie, but it doesnt, so you have to download all images and then forward click to Sat 19 Jul 06z Shows some whopper storm with max dBz of 60+ (!!) predicted radar reflectivity spanning right from London to Dover. Havent seen this predicted for quite a while. That could be our Saturday morning MCS, and what a violent one.. Might be useful to keep an eye on the next runs. Here the link: http://www.modellzentrale.de/WRF/index_all_en.php (click on sim. reflectivity/shear) We wait and see, huh? Ralph
  22. [email protected] @ Greenday: No, the dryline will be further south today, I expect it to extend from about Basle in Switzerland to Salzburg, Austria. This line will separate moist, unstable airmasses in the north from dry "foehn" air immidiately north of the alpine ridge. Strong foehn winds coming from the south are expected as of this afternoon as the low pressure area moves in from the west to southern Germany, creating a pressure gradient over the alpine region. I expect violent developments along this dryline over northern parts of Switzerland, southern Germany right into Austria with large hail and strong wind gusts due to the effect of evaporative cooling in the dry airmasses! As I am currently working there I will take off a bit earlier than usual this afternoon and position myself somewhere in the southern part of the Black forest, it will either be a corepunch for me or maybe some spectacular photos of isolated cells immidiately to my north, strobing away in the evening light. We shall see.... Will report back Ralph
  23. @ Flashbang: Thats where I would have headed too, we would probably have met had I made it to the UK yesterday Ralph
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