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Flash bang flash bang etc

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Everything posted by Flash bang flash bang etc

  1. I’m an idiot If I’m getting in any way excited about an ‘event’ that isn’t acknowledged by either Estofex or UKWW
  2. Mixing out air masses, wind too strong, wind too light, CAPE too high (heard that one before), meagre lapse, meagre sheer, food shortage, brexit, Harry & Meghan... Could be anything
  3. The only discernible difference would be the sea temps in the channel, which could help imports across, and help maintain coastal convergence - which could be a good trigger for afternoon activity (provided enough solar heating can occur)
  4. Anyone looking for euro storms to pass the time check this out: webcam.salou.cat:8889/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=3332 Some good elevated lightning on show here. Appears to be heading closer to the cam over time
  5. I think -ve CGs can be pretty destructive in their own right, but a +ve one is almost exclusively so. The voltages involved in either are quite astonishing, but the difference is quite significant - especially considering that a +ve travels a lot further through the cloud so there’s a lot more energy to be discharged. -ve strikes are often quite feint and anaemic, but the right frame of a capture can make it look a lot more like a positive - so you’re probably best judging it from a video clip to see how many pulses there are. The noise is also a fairly good identifier - like you say there’s regular rumbling thunder and then there are the proper bangs. In the few stormy moments granted to the south so far this summer I think the only positive strike I know of was the one that exploded a nearly tree and set the grass on fire. The sound alone suggested to me that was a proper positive strike. Huge bang. My rule: if it scares the s4it out of you it’s probably +ve lightning
  6. Look on sat. Looks like a huge cloud bank. Wonder if this is still developing to the point where it will produce showers?
  7. Again my theory about the lightning detection apps seems to be supported by real world evidence: Yesterday blitzortung was showing a lot more of the strikes that were appearing on the Lightning Alarm app. My theory is that Blitzortung is calibrated to pick up more significant strikes which are likely to be CG and/or positive (I’m assuming positive intra-cloud is possible never really thought about this) whereas other apps tend toward the elevated stuff and a large proportion are of the IC and/or negative. Yesterday demonstrates that due to conditions (low based, long land track and surface nature of the storms/squall) along with anecdotal evidence as noted above that these strikes were more powerful and tended W toward the + CG variety. In nearly all cases the LA app picks up far more sferics regardless of the storm type (perhaps some of these are multiple detections of the same strike, and some could also be false strikes due to an abundance of incoming data / scatter effect) and I’m assuming this is predominantly due to all reasonably mature storms invariably having at least some kind of elevated activity. Hoping this is of interest to some, as I’m finding it a really useful tool at the moment to distinguish the mode of storms, which helps determine their likely duration and ultimate fate
  8. I can note one similarity - they are usually both incredibly unreliable
  9. That seems unlikely. It’s probably showing development of cells in the channel during the night hours into Friday
  10. I’m in hackney tomo. Good times for the south - an area with a fantastic track record for storm forecasts
  11. Yes, but the cake mix won’t rise properly if you set the oven to the wrong temperature
  12. Superman slowed the earths orbit and It meant he went back in time. That’s probably more likely than two UK storm seasons in the same year
  13. Good cloudscapes today. Definately some rotation in those sharp thundery showers. One rumble and one flash seen over near Chertsey earlier. Then watched clouds for a bit near Woking. Hardly ‘thunderstorms’ but still enjoyable slow moving showers. The heaviest stuff back up near Wembley now
  14. Big boom of thunder as I was walking out of work. Nothing after that - and lightning only showing up on the app (nothing on blitzortung) so I’m assuming intracloud / elevated lightning. Seem to be under a convergence - showers training over this spot (Sunbury)
  15. “End of forecast period” suggests that this risk is possibly going to head eastwards after 6am... is this correct? That would be good if it did
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