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Flash bang flash bang etc

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Flash bang flash bang etc last won the day on May 30

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  1. Looks like a little shower has popped up right outside our window
  2. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Yeah I was also considering Mallorca. There’s an awesome wine dispensary in Palma - was a spring discovery and I really want to go back
  3. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    I was considering the same thing next year - such is our dire situation at present in the U.K. My main consistent gripe is we seem to always end up in a situation where there’s heat but no PPN, CAPE but no viable trigger, moist air but with no energy or lift to make it do anything - or any other combination of mitigating circumstances which leads to nothing. To top it all off we appear to always have a stubborn cap in place, and most frustratingly 80% of storm setups just fail seemingly because they can. I’ve been looking at Slovenia for a September holiday - they have amazing storms almost every week without fail. Had enough of getting old watching chances fizzle away - I want storm action!
  4. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    I agree ppl need to understand slight warnings are just that and not get their hopes up - but I still consider today a bust due to unexpected cloud coverage.
  5. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    I look at it like this these days: forecasts are there to assist with the safety of the public, and not to provide pointers for enthusiasts. So use them at your own risk! Edit: UKWW and CW are kind of exceptions
  6. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Don’t estofex use a system similar to the highways agency? - what I mean is like on motorways where they bolster their reporting of immediate and near-future traffic with historical data, Estofex shore up their model predictions using data from similar setups in the past. Whatever the secret is it just seems to work
  7. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Ooh I just found this: https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp nice little animation
  8. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    I don’t like Estofex anymore for the very reason that they are so accurate - and seem to never put the U.K. in a risk zone
  9. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Tony mentions capping on UKWW: ”IMO today's outlook has ultimately become dependant on a fine line of condusive conditions. A number of small convective cells have tried to punch through the cap but quickly subsided. This is very evident if we re wind radar so far today. We are now approaching a point where we lose surface heating and the any results will be unlikely based on the overal synoptic set up.For me, I see the classic condition of a strong mid level cap as was very clear within the 12z Larkhill ascent. This is why there were isolated pockets of strong dbz shown, but which just as quickly dissipated. The evidence is already shown, and it would have required some big surface warming with moisture to overcome this layer.” (Couldn’t remember how to put this in quotes) He also mentioned the potential of cold-pooling too - so like you say looks like we’re good for a few hours yet Edit: is mid-level cap the same as a warm nose?
  10. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    I’m still learning about warm noses - probably what I thought was a cap
  11. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Completely agree that lack of any real heat was a primary issue today, but there’s still something of a cap to be overcome - just looked to my eye like the larger cells of the CZ have been spreading out rather than up
  12. Flash bang flash bang etc

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Intra cloud perhaps?
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