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neige57

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Everything posted by neige57

  1. neige57
    Increased WAVE2 this morning and WAVE1 still holds up, it has not changed compared to yesterday concerning What is interesting is that we are not far from a reversal of zonal winds and it will be monitored. In any case, the strong QBO- is doing his work
  2. neige57
    you speak of détermiste GFS? because the GFS // this is another story and very different. Do not look at the GFS détermiste soon to be replaced
  3. neige57
    ECMWF confirms the great potential this evening with a huge pressure on the Polar Vortex Even better on the JMA 120h deadline
  4. neige57
    With a strong QBO- on several levels, it could all go very fast, can be faster than that suggested the current stratospheric models. I just signal that will reach the peak QBO- in the heart of winter combined with a weak El Nino. The QBO- will be around -25 during December and January, with a peak at the end of the year. A figure as low in the heart of winter was no longer produced since December 2005 closely followed by December 1965 and that's all
  5. neige57
    http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=9061.0
  6. neige57
    study or not study, it does not work every time. There has been intense warming in the stratosphere for many winters at high solar flux. The solar flux alone can not have a direct impact on the stratosphere, it's just not possible. We must look at all the solar parameters (solar flux index KP, AP, SSN etc) so there is a real impact. There is also the El Nino phenomenon that comes into play. Winters El Nino / QBO- were very often sudden stratospheric warmings despite a very high solar activity
  7. neige57
    In this case, you explain to me why the winters were cold during the winter of 1968/1969 (flux averaged 160) or the winters of 1957/1958 (QBO +) or 1958/1959 (QBO-) with a solar flux around 190 on average. I think most people within this forum have nothing including the role of solar activity. No it is not the solar flux to look out but KP index (currently down as often in this solar cycle 24) because this index is directly related to solar flares. Then the AP index, the most important Solar flux 167 is currently linked to the only task that remains on the sun, the largest disk and facedown including. In fact, the sun is quiet
  8. neige57
    I have news, the forecast based on the OPI and SAI index will be released Monday, November 10 see here: http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?board=21.0
  9. neige57
    I think it would be reliable even if we must always be careful. But the parameters as the strong negative QBO, El Nino and low current low solar activity (solar flux below 120) are in favor of a regular hot stratosphere
  10. neige57
    wow, ECMWF pulls no punches this morning with a weak polar vortex completely Further increase in wave 1 am in the medium term, a good sign
  11. neige57
    In any case, the polar vortex is seen to be disturbed medium term, continuing October What huge difference compared to the same period in 2013
  12. neige57
    yes that's right
  13. neige57
    Do not worry, very quickly in early November
  14. neige57
    -2.1 / -2.2 Should be the final figure, the second lowest since 1976 and just behind 2009
  15. neige57
    It is even a sudden change in the latter GFS definitely a connection with the fall of solar activity since 2192 sunspot is gone. We know that a quiet sun influences the effects of QBO- the stratosphere during a weak El Nino. There is strong reason to be optimistic this winter even if the snow fell over western Russia which is far from catastrophic the contrary http://www.solarham.net/xray.htm
  16. neige57
    Congratulations and I am very widely. As some would say, be patient
  17. neige57
    I completely agree with you. In my opinion, the IZE could be lost if a SSW would be realized for example early in the season for example late December or mid-January. That is why I have big doubts about this index and very little back up because only until 2011 (while the OPI index goes back to 1976). Personally, I would rather use the IPO index and ISC without hesitation
  18. neige57
    still no weakness of the wave 1 long term. It lasts for a month now, a very positive sign
  19. neige57
    Their forecast comes out in early November
  20. neige57
    I for one OPI index is stable now and oxcille between -1.5 and -2.5 so the final figure should be within this range at the end of the month which is well below
  21. neige57
    made in, everything depends on the shape of the axis and the inclination of the polar vortex and all that, we know that early November
  22. neige57
    I see a lot of people have not really understood the role of solar activity. There may well have peaked at 200, there will be no impact on the earth as these peaks are too short in time and in addition to all that, the CME thrown into space were rare even now . You will see that once this big stain is gone, the flow will drop again in the 120 flux is close to 200 mainly caused by the large spot. Elsewhere it's still flat and we can see the disappearance of spots on the northern hemisphere. All this to say that even the flow to 200, there will be no impact on the land because it does not last long enough For there is an impact on the earth, it would have the solar flux is greater than 150 for at least one month minimum which was never the case in this cycle 24 except during the fall of 2011 and early this year but nothing since . And also that the CME are many and thrown to earth (and not on the other side)
  23. neige57
    Please, post your message of this kind elsewhere in this part of the topic. Tastes, the desires of each is not on this topic, it pollutes more than anything else, thank you
  24. neige57
    negative but I would have loved to work on
  25. neige57
    except that in December 2011 and January 2012 was very soft on Europe. The cold snap in February 2012 was a stroke of luck, thank you Russian anticyclone. And case studies from February 2012 was explained by Riccardo. The cold snap was expected three months in advance
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