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neige57

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  1. neige57
    Increased WAVE2 this morning and WAVE1 still holds up, it has not changed compared to yesterday concerning What is interesting is that we are not far from a reversal of zonal winds and it will be monitored. In any case, the strong QBO- is doing his work
  2. neige57
    you speak of détermiste GFS? because the GFS // this is another story and very different. Do not look at the GFS détermiste soon to be replaced
  3. neige57
    ECMWF confirms the great potential this evening with a huge pressure on the Polar Vortex Even better on the JMA 120h deadline
  4. neige57
    With a strong QBO- on several levels, it could all go very fast, can be faster than that suggested the current stratospheric models. I just signal that will reach the peak QBO- in the heart of winter combined with a weak El Nino. The QBO- will be around -25 during December and January, with a peak at the end of the year. A figure as low in the heart of winter was no longer produced since December 2005 closely followed by December 1965 and that's all
  5. neige57
    http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=9061.0
  6. neige57
    study or not study, it does not work every time. There has been intense warming in the stratosphere for many winters at high solar flux. The solar flux alone can not have a direct impact on the stratosphere, it's just not possible. We must look at all the solar parameters (solar flux index KP, AP, SSN etc) so there is a real impact. There is also the El Nino phenomenon that comes into play. Winters El Nino / QBO- were very often sudden stratospheric warmings despite a very high solar activity
  7. neige57
    In this case, you explain to me why the winters were cold during the winter of 1968/1969 (flux averaged 160) or the winters of 1957/1958 (QBO +) or 1958/1959 (QBO-) with a solar flux around 190 on average. I think most people within this forum have nothing including the role of solar activity. No it is not the solar flux to look out but KP index (currently down as often in this solar cycle 24) because this index is directly related to solar flares. Then the AP index, the most important Solar flux 167 is currently linked to the only task that remains on the sun, the largest disk and facedown including. In fact, the sun is quiet
  8. neige57
    I have news, the forecast based on the OPI and SAI index will be released Monday, November 10 see here: http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?board=21.0
  9. neige57
    I think it would be reliable even if we must always be careful. But the parameters as the strong negative QBO, El Nino and low current low solar activity (solar flux below 120) are in favor of a regular hot stratosphere
  10. neige57
    wow, ECMWF pulls no punches this morning with a weak polar vortex completely Further increase in wave 1 am in the medium term, a good sign
  11. neige57
    In any case, the polar vortex is seen to be disturbed medium term, continuing October What huge difference compared to the same period in 2013
  12. neige57
    yes that's right
  13. neige57
    Do not worry, very quickly in early November
  14. neige57
    -2.1 / -2.2 Should be the final figure, the second lowest since 1976 and just behind 2009
  15. neige57
    It is even a sudden change in the latter GFS definitely a connection with the fall of solar activity since 2192 sunspot is gone. We know that a quiet sun influences the effects of QBO- the stratosphere during a weak El Nino. There is strong reason to be optimistic this winter even if the snow fell over western Russia which is far from catastrophic the contrary http://www.solarham.net/xray.htm
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