LetItSnow!

WYorksWeather I forgot to add that I don’t believe April 2024 will be the one to do it. My CET guess for example

BlueSkies_do_I_see While I agree with the sentiment that it’s much harder, I disagree with this. February 2018, March 2018, November 2019, July 2020, January 2021, April 2021, May 2021 and December 2022 show it is still possible and even in a warming world our local SSTs will vary between years. It’s not too crazy a concept to me that 2024 could have a below average month. The persistent, exceptional warmth will eventually break even if only for a little while.

WYorksWeather Perhaps a greater deviation of annual rainfall from Scotland and the south of England by this theory. This summary is interesting. I've thought that summers of the future may swing wildly between extremes of dryness and wetness between summers; summers like 1976 followed by summers like 2012. A more blocked pattern in summer doesn't always guarantee it will land in a hot position. But basically sounds like rain is the name of the game. Interesting that the Hadley Cell isn't taken into account for winters. Perhaps even AGW will never overpower the mighty Atlantic. Extended cold season probably just means extended autumn... Though I have wondered that if winters were more blocked in Europe, that even though the earth would be warmer, less power from the Atlantic may allow cold pools to develop over Europe? Cuz in my head, many a mighty cold pool in recent years has easily been swept away from the Atlantic and sent warm air bathing over Europe. If the Atlantic was weaker then maybe Scandinavian highs and such would last longer and therefor be able to pack a punch. We know with warming of about 1-1.5C we can still see cold pools develop of an extreme intensity so maybe they would fester over Europe with little forcing. Overall trends do show that UK rainfall tended to be dryer when it's colder so it makes sense for it to be wet when wetter. We've not seen any proof of the more blocked winters yet... Apologies for being all over the place but no one knows for sure anyway.

SunnyG To be fair we did have some very mild days around the middle of the month but my memory is saying they weren't all that bright. Do I dare bore members of this website with a third set of predicitons?

I suspect there will be a lot of cloud and rain associated with low pressure next week but if the wind does swing to the south and there are any sunny spells then no doubts in my mind parts of Kent and East Anglia could reach the upper teens Celsius, on the assumption the model is undercooking the temperatures. Projections of where the low will be could make the difference between a pleasantly warm spring day and an absolute washout so perhaps one to watch, though don't get your hopes up. I predict low pressure will have the ascendancy surely due to the atmosphere looking very juicy in NW Europe next week.

Metwatch Wish that the Met Office hadn't stopped doing their in depth reviews and surveys in the early 1990s. Indeed when it comes to the Monthy Weather Reports there is an odd gap at least in searchable data from 1994 to 2000.

Checked and I was right as for about two days we had this lovely warm ridge We had another short lived warm spell on May 6th too but generally the spring was very cold. I remember it well.

I feel like we'll tick down somewhat into 2025 and maybe even 2026 if we go into La Niña and lose some of this water vapour effects and maybe that'll give a false sense of semi-normality but it makes you wonder if we get another Super Niño between 2027 and 2040 how warm that could tip the scales.

Summer8906 April 2013 is a month with interesting variety from memory. The month started completely frozen and I remember being in the back of the car on the 4th with gale force, I think north-easterly winds, driving snow and no vegetation. Could have been a mid-January winter storm. However, I remember warm sunshine late in the month, so much so that we drove with the top down. It was a gloriously sunny afternoon and warm from memory with it being our first day in the low 20s, think it was the 23rd. Didn't last long before it went cold again but that couple days stopped the month from being extremely cold.

Crystal ball? More like plastic cube. April's guess is already very unlikely!

kold weather The north poor/south ridgey type summer further fuels my feelings of a 1998 type summer Summer8906 Pretty sure it was generally quite wet albeit with normal interuptions from April 1993 to February 1995. 1993 was a very wet year with 1013mm and 1994 had 1050mm. Probably why, along with better infastructure, the extreme drought of summer 1995 wasn't a hazard like 1976 was. Of course the biggest difference being at that time there was a stable cycle between drier couples of years and wetter ones whereas now the die is loaded in favour of wet... just like in older, colder, times it was loaded to dry. I really do think though this will let up soon... but soon could be second half of April or it could September; first week of September knowing the sardonic nature of the UK climate.

Summer8906 Locally April 2023 was very wet as was the opening ten days or so of May. If high pressure hadn't taken over in the second half of May then it would have been an extremely wet spring, but seeing as the summer before had been so dry and the winter wasn't overly wet, I don't think it was too bad. Plus, my own preferences enjoy it. Indeed I don't remember spring 2023 feeling all that gloomy. March 2024 has felt gloomier but perhaps that's a mind set thing. Checking the outlook for the next ten days, it still shows a lot of low pressure but with that mild southwesterly element. Funny how, particulalry in spring and autumn that a south-westerly and its polar opposite, north-easterly, can bring some foul conditions. Northeasterlies at least have the benefit of winter/early spring/late autumn snow. The long term average for April is 58mm and I can see 2024 surpassing that. If we have a very wet first half then probably 50-70mm at least nailed for the UKP. I sense volatility and expect heavy rain, and particularly thunderstorms, will be the name of the game this spring, though I think May 2024 will be the most likely to have a hot week. I feel an early summer this year.

Shillitocettwo I'm not actually sure this might happen since if the winds do turn south-westerly then even if the days are relatively unexceptional, the nights will probably be quite mild + April is a rapidly warming month, though you can't rule out a very cold spell at some point and very mild winters do have a tendency to save their last laugh for April; see 2016, 1998, 1989 for example. I actually even saw heavy snow in April 2019 (and May) locally after that warm February.

Summer8906 1947 truly the year where all the seasons were turned up to 200%. Probably the most extreme year the UK has ever seen. It had extreme cold, extreme heat, extreme rainfall and flooding, extreme drought, extreme sunshine amounts, extreme sunshine defecits; truly a year of the ultimate extreme and probably a year we don't ever see the likes of again unless blocking becomes the norm later the century and even then, who's to say the winter would pack as much an oomf. Funny quirk how 1947 was the ultimate seasonal year and 1974 (the numbers flipped around) was the total opposite with the year being anti-seasonal. Using that logic, 2032 one for the history books?

May edit this closer to the time if any changes show up in the models but I'll enter with 9.4C and 135mm. I think the very unsettled weather will prevail through a lot of the month but I would be surprised if we don't tap into some warm or very warm air at some point during the month and I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere exceeds 25C this month. I would go warmer but I feel like exceptionally warm and exceptionally wet isn't very common in April so I'll be rather tame with the warmth. There is a plume of it to our south and I think even if we avoid it there'll be quite mild nights a lot.

B87 Interesting that cluster from 1979-1981. Key difference to now is that March 1979 and March 1980 probably had melted snow make up some of that total! 1981, 2023 and 2024 a whole lotta rain.

B87 Down here yes but parts of Scotland managed 21C on the 17th of April last year. You often see locally warm temperatures up there at that time of the year. Probably something to do with geography, very strong sun and high pressure oriented in the right place.

Summer8906 The odds of October 2024 being excessively wet must surely be lower due to the fact that we've had an (IIRC) unparralelled run of wet Octobers since 2019. October 2024 being another really wet one would be silly. Regardless of what the summer is like, a dry, anticyclonic October would sweeten the kiss of the death of summer a LOT. I don't really care about cloudiness and I certainly don't care about the rain (I'm the only one enjoying the novelty of this current spell) but the light levels are really rough to me sometimes, especially over the past season which for personal reasons was quite taxing. It just doesn't help. I think when it's the dark months of the years it cheers you up to have a stonking big Scandi high blowing a winter wonderland your way, so by all means, if high pressure wants to dominate in late 2024 then may it do so in that fashion please! Meanwhile before then a 2001 style summer will do just fine. No big stonking heatwaves please. I want to feel normal 23C, bubbly clouds and a gentle breeze, who could want more?...

For some reason my intution says autumn 2024 will see lots of high pressure overhead and to our east. Maybe like 2007 how after an extremely warm period we sort of ran out of steam and tended to be average to a little below pretty much all the way through until 2013 with warm interludes. Now, I'm not suggesting we're going to have a span of colder years until 2030, though unlike some I do believe absolutely that they are possible and will occur again. I have this intuitive feeling that the high pressure will dominate through the end of 2024 and give us quite a festive Xmas period and that winter 2024/2025 will be our first real winter in years, though that could vary anywhere from 2020/2021 intensity to full on 1962/1963 (I wish!... you never know (don't tell me the statisitcs of how rare that would be, I know!!!)). Getting a bit ahead of myself there.

Summer8906 Summer8906 Had my go at a little forecast. One thing you'll notice on the map is the anomalously high pressure beginning to inflate to our south. 50 years ago this pattern would have dug further south but as we've seen a lot recently, we end up on the boundary between low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure to our south. Already got the gut feeling it's a preview of another scorching summer to our south. Oh how nice it would be for normal weather again... Not any time soon!

Very unsettled outlook for the first week or so of April at this time. Low pressure dominating with no doubt copious showers and longer spells of rain at times. Rather cool feel but signs of a southwesterly element setting up around the 5th which gets the 5C uppers into the south of England which could mean any sunny spells could be decent. I also wonder if these moisture laden southwesterly winds may be conducive to thunderstorms or at least thundery showers in places. Wouldn’t be surprised if there could be a bang here and there as we go into April. From just a quick analysis, overall a very unsettled start to April with a lot of rain and perhaps some thunder. I’d imagine mostly unexceptional temperatures but the south could climb into the upper teens if sunny spells developed. Of course it’s also worth pointing out the details are yet to be firmed up on closer to day ten and either high pressure may ridge closer than anticipated giving a chance of some warmer, drier days, particularly in the south, or that the low pressure may dig a little further south and the mildness is reduced. Warm air surging northwards through Europe could fuel low pressure our way so one to watch out for. Either way, take the opposite advice of The Weather Girls and don’t leave those umbrellas at home!

Summer8906 Current output shows that we eventually pull a southwesterly flow with the low pressure so ending up rather mild but probably not overly warm if cloud amounts are high. If anything just looks like a similar pattern to the predominant pattern since last autumn. First week to ten days of April could be really wet. A significantly drier an average April already looking on shaky ground. Still, could be some convective material in those southwesterlies. Plus low pressure in April usually is conducive to some good storms. Reckon there could be some fun to be had there. Otherwise more rain, this time between 10-18C probably.

I think unsettled conditions will prevail until the autumn but I do feel the autumn will be a dry one, perhaps very dry one, and fine like in 2007.

raz.org.rain To be fair, two weeks away in model terms is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. I would expect 20C in April though as that’s very normal. You record the first 20C in April on average anyway. I think the last time we failed to was all the way back in 2012.

SunnyG We’ve got a thread for it by now, don’t worry