LetItSnow!

Very interesting 12z from the GFS. Different from the get go as the build of pressure actually has an imbedded trough so this would be quite cloudy and perhaps with patchy bits of rain. Then the ridge behind the Iceland low helps to bring a northerly punch at day 10. While I do think this is probably an extreme signal, it's not entirely unfeasible. That ridge in the Atlantic will play a crucial role into whether we retrogress or whether it amplifies a UK high. Proper northerly too with the -5 line clearing the whole country. This would bring frost even to the south which would be a bit of havoc for gardeners due to early spring growth. This would probably bring some cracking convective material too. The usual caveats of time apply... I have a feeling that by around the 17th we'll either be heading for the beach or heading for the wardrobe to dig out our winter coats. The set up is rather similar to April 1995 which after an exceptionally warm first-half (10.2 up til the 15th) became cold mid-month with some potent northerlies. It is a matching analogue year I've heard funnily enough.

Frigid Good! A semblance of normality would be great, please.

Summer8906 The summer of 1978 had a EWP total of 209.5mm which is 92% of the normal. June and July were near-normal but August was dry (though for era it probably was slightly drier than normal) with 77% of the norm. Had the synoptics of the autumn occured during the summer then perhaps 1978 would have rivalled 1976...

Summer8906 The 1960s - 227.3mm (99.4%) | The 1960s looks to have seen healthy variation between some fairly wet summers and some dry ones. 1960, 1966 and 1968 were very wet but none of the summers in either direction were record breakers. The 1970s - 188.2mm (82.3%) | A very dry decade for summers, dryer than the 1990s! 1971 and 1974 were the only wet summers, the rest ranging from dry to exceptionally dry. Of course, 1976 was the driest summer on record at the time but now sits and 2nd place behind the aforementioned summer of 1995. Perhaps comments of summers getting wetter is actually a reaction from a generation accustomed to dry summers? But that leads to an interesting question about longer term cycles, so here's the average summer rainfall for each decade for the 1900s up to the 1950s and see if we see any trend. 1900s - 226.3mm (99%) | Generally varied with few extremes except 1903 which was very wet. 1910s - 228.4mm (99.9%) | Once again varied, but with more extremes. Includes the wettest summer on record which is 1912 with 409.7mm. Also of note is how extremely dry the summer of 1913 was with just 114.4mm, only 50% of the normal. Only 1976, 1983, 1995 and 2022 have been dryer since. Also drier than 1911. 1920s - 230.0mm (100.6%) | Another varied decade, but 1921 was the only notably dry summer. 1927 was extremely wet with 336.8mm (147%), perhaps a bit of a forgotten dud summer. Might do a historic thread on that one. 1930s - 216.4mm (94.6%) | Perhaps not as dry as you'd think but there were a couple of really wet ones including 1930, 1931, 1936 and 1939 which somewhat offset the dry ones. 1940s - 204.1mm (89.3%) | Getting dryer... 1946 was the only notably wet one and 1949 was exceptionally dry. 1950s - 244.2mm (106.8%) | An unusual frequency of very wet summers despite a couple dry ones. 1950, 1953 and 1957 were wet while 1954, 1956 and 1958 were exceptionally wet. So the trends show that the first 30 to 40 years showed little trend either way in summer rainfall, but a sharp decline occured from the 1970s until the mid-2000s, so it echoes my comment of: "Perhaps comments of summers getting wetter is actually a reaction from a generation accustomed to dry summers?". I suppose it also adds more questions too. Was the period from the 1970s to the mid-2000s part of the warming trend where we expected to see a drying trend for our summers or was it a part of natural variability? Are the wetter summers of the past 17 years reverting to a wetter phase that'll last 30-50 years or is that climate change interfering with a natural dry cycle? So many questions and variables and not to be answered on this thread so please direct them there instead, but very interesting nonetheless.

Summer8906 I agree with you in terms of it being unusual and probably would have probably been a couple degrees lower 20 years ago in the same set up. I suppose one can forget the strength of the April sun though and in any upper of 5 or higher it really doesn't take much to become quite warm.

raz.org.rain These laws of balance have been awfully lop-sided for the past ten or so years though, my only caution with this belief! But such an extreme that's lasted for long does mean the longer it goes on the more likely it is to end but I don't believe it'll "balance" itself out due to recent historical trends but we'll see!

Signs of potentially quite a potent little feature on Monday on the 6z. The worst of the winds are reserved for the south coast but it's a notably windy day for April. April 2024 is certainly bucking the usual anticyclonic nature of the month of April so far. After that, the signs for a solid area of high pressure are somewhat shakier than my post the other day but this run does manage a pleasant ridge by the 12th and the 13th, though the uppers are actually relatively average with this so perhaps temperatures restricted to the mid to upper teens, still pleasant and we may even have the semblance of a cool night! Unsettled again by day ten though so no signs of a pattern flip so far.

This is why even if this year had featured persistent north-easterlies instead and was *still* dull I would much prefer it because at least it would be seasonal for February and March + snow potential. I would much rather take dreary and cold in the winter and early spring than dreary and mild. It's why I don't think I would have been too annoyed by early 1986. I was young but I somehow remember spring 2013 being less drab than 2024 has!

Weather-history Especially interesting to me because this was my nearest town growing up (unfortunately). I wonder if these were two unrelated events or slight evidence of a very wet but convective summer like 1912 and 2012. The east seeing two heavy rain events implies perhaps that the first half of July was blocked to our north with troughs bringing rain and storms. It was certainly not an overly cool summer though so perhaps a mixed bag. These reports don’t paint a picture of the whole summer but suggest it could have been yet another unsettled and thundery 12 summer.

CryoraptorA303 Considering you'd expect an April night to hover around 3-5C in some places it's the anomaly equivalent of a tropical night in July. Can't help but feel that the extreme mildness in an odd way is making things feel less spring-like now. Local blossom and daffodils are already mostly gone and we're in a weird gray zone where the spring flowers seem to be passing their best but the trees haven't come out yet, which combined with static mild temperatures and low sunshine levels and gusty winds is making it feel like autumn. At least in a cold spring, even though growth is delayed, it comes out gradually and you can get a pretty late bloom. Bear in mind I don't live in the countryside so it may look different there, but it's very nature-y locally with a wild array of trees and flowers in a park behind my house - and I can say that it just feels so, so dull. No spring joy, just constant November - and it doesn't help with the freaky synoptics going on at the moment. It would be nice to have a UK/Scandi orientated high with chilly nights but warm days but instead it's just extreme...mildness. Bland. It didn't bother me so much in the winter or even last summer (and also July and August last year were unexceptional for temperature unlike currently) but it all feels malevolently grey at the moment. Got a feeling this will come to typify 2024 as a whole but things could change. It certainly feels a LOT different to where we were at this point in spring in 2022 which had been very sunny so it felt pleasant and cheery. A lot of 2022's weather (apart from the scary heatwave) was very happiness inducing and I imagine 1995 must have felt that way, but yeah... I'd much rather the opposite right now and have a raging NE wind with exceptionally low temperatures because at least there'd be some snow and some novelty.

Weather Enthusiast91 If you get an unstable northerly at this time of year you end up usually getting crystal clear sunshine but also convection + further north you can even get some decent snowfall out of it. Meanwhile, mild and wet south/south-westerlies at this time just feel wrong. The synoptics we have currently remind me more of early autumn rather than early spring. Everything about 2024 feels malevolently grey!

This windy but warm low pressure set up reminds me of an April version of August 2019. I remember this day well, it was blowing a gale but warm and humid at the same time. I wonder if it'll feel the same this weekend. Perhaps rather troubling that the uppers this weekend may be warmer than then though!

Summer8906 Summer8906 I averaged out the last ten summers (2014-2023) for the EWP and it basically came out average to the long term mean. Summers are definitely wetter compared to the 1990s, but 1990s summers were exceptionally dry (as a whole compared to average). In fact, the 1990s climate fit the idea of wetter winters and drier summers very well. Out of interest I looked at the summer rainfall anomalies of the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and 2014-2023. Here are the results: 1980s - 210.5mm (92.1%) | Surprisingly, the infamous decade of summers ran pretty dry. None of the poor summers were extremely wet and some were drier than you may think, for example; 1981 had 141.4mm which is just 62% of normal and drier than all but four summers from the 1985 to 2023 (drier than 1989 too). 1986 was also slightly drier than normal despite that poor August. 1990s - 195.3mm (85.4%) | An exceptionally dry decade for summers with only three years wetter than average (The summers of 1992, 1997 and 1999). The infamous poor summers of 1993 and 1998 were both dry and the decade included the driest summer on record to date, 1995 with 66.9mm. 2000s - 228.8mm (100.1%) | This decade was running on a par with the 1990s for summer dryness up until 2006 with 2004 being the only wetter than average summer (yes, even 2002 was marginally dryer than average) but then the trio of very wet summers from 2007 to 2009 brought the count to very slightly over 100%. 2010s - 236.9mm (103.6%) | Whether a natural cycle back to wet, climate change induced or a mixture of both, the 2010s brought the return of regular unsettled summers, including 2012 which is the 4th wettest on records. The summers that weren't exceptionally wet tended to range from near normal to pretty wet and there were only two dry summers the whole decade, 2013 and 2018. 2014-2023 - 225.3mm (98.6%) | The loss of 2012 brought the total down and the very dry summer of 2022 alongside 2018 also added in reducing the averag, but that may be due to the wet summers of 2019 and 2020 not being into the exceptional category to balance it quite back to 100%. Still the signal remains changeable as 2023 proved to be a wet summer. Now we wait to see what the summer of 2024 will add to the table.

Weather-history Each month getting into the 30sF and 78F the maximum? Sounds very cold. Unfortunately we dont have any data in terms of synoptic charts but I imagine a very northerly dominated summer, though being much drier than 1912 and 2012 it may have been “better” than all three. The only data I could find for 1712 was just the C.E.T., no handwritten reports or anything, but it did have a warm June.

Spring growth seems well advanced locally. Many trees are into their early leaf stage with a definite green look coming into life for most trees. Blossom and daffodils are all fading fast. If we get any very warm weather this month then I feel a very early summer look. Wouldn’t be surprised to have full growth by May if these anomalies persist. And yet somehow it still feels like November.

Relativistic Unless there’s some date in May from ages ago that was a missed opportunity type event like September 1988 and June 2019, the earliest is when in the mostly mild and bland summer of 2000 the 20C grazed the southwest coast on June 18th, 2000

This model run seems frighteningly close to our discussion the other day! Perhaps I wasn't entirely on the silly juice (I don't think it'll verify though) @WYorksWeather

A curious quirk in the British weather records is a string of awful summers in 12 ending years. This'll be a long one so you've been warned! The summer of 1812 we have comparitively little data, but records show it was an exceptionally cold summer even for the time with a C.E.T. of 13.8C. It came off of an extremely cold spring and was particularly wet in May and June. 100 years later and there came a summer where "poor" may be an insulting understatement even to the iciest hearted coldie. The "summer" of 1912 is one of the worst summers ever recorded in the UK with an average of 409.7mm of rain in the EWP data series, the WETTEST summer ever recorded. It was also cold with a C.E.T. of 14.3C, with one particular month doing the heavy lifitng, but we'll get there... June 1912 was an exceptionally wet month (duh) and it was rather cool too with a C.E.T. of 13.9. What makes the month notable is the remarkable abundance of thunder. The 15th was the only day of the month where thunder wasn't recorded. The month began cold with snowfall on the Welsh mountains on the 4th. There was plenty of thunderstorms and widespread falls of 25-50mm. The 7th was a very wet day with widespread falls of 50-75mm of rain across the south-east. The 9th was the most destructive day of the month with severe thunderstorms reported in all districts. Over in Ireland the town of Collooney saw 3 inches of hail lay on the ground and parts of the town were swept away. The 15th being the only thunder-free day didn't mean it was free of rain though, further widespread falls of 40mm fell on this day. The 17th was perhaps the wettest day of the month with widespread falls of 25-100mm in the north and parts of Wales with 134.6mm at Copper Mill. The month wasn't without heat as this preceeded a hot spell that lasted about three days with temperatures peaking at 29C in Isleworth (Hounslow) on the 22nd. Only the far north was dry. A large swathe of western England saw anomalies of over 300-375% of the normal rainfall. It was dull everywhere with sunshine anomalies under half in the west and the north, though remarkably it was sunny in the south-east with sunshine anomalies around 110-120%; Greenwich had 123%. How this happened, God knows. July 1912 was a month of two-halves in many ways. The volatile weather took a break in the first half and there was even some very hot weather. It's the least poor month of the summer with a C.E.T. of 16.1C and an EWP of 94.4mm, so only average temperatures and fairly wet still! The first half generally saw high pressure around and dry weather. Whilst June saw rain every day in many places, there was a spell of total dry weather in many areas seeing up to 11 consecutive days without rain (wow). Despite this, it was generally very overcast a lot of the time. The month briefly turned very hot from the 12th to the 17th with the temperature peaking at 33C at multiple London stations on the 12th. There were some tropical nights too with parts of the south having minima as high as 21C on the 16th. The extremely wet and very thundery weather that characterised much of June generally returned for most from the 19th onward. Despite being generally dry many areas saw falls of 25mm on rain on most days. The north-west was particularly wet with between 150-300mm of rain falling between the 23th and 27th alone. Away from eastern and south-eastern coasts where it was dry it was generally very wet despite a dry first-half. Parts of Kent and Yorkshire had under half but much of western England had totals over 200%. It was dull everywhere except the far north, even in places where it was dry; York had 46% rainfall yet 44% sunshine. Forget every sense of what a poor summer month is as you're about to witness the very worst naturally possible without a volcanic winter. August 1912 has a C.E.T. of 12.9 (no typo!) and an EWP of 192.9mm. It is the coldest, wettest and dullest August ever recorded and the most extreme of any month ever being the first (and I think only?) month to ever take three records. You'll be shocked by the stats! The early part of the month saw the only semblance of warmth all month with 23C at Greenwich on the 4th. Only very scattered places in the south even reached 21C all month with many parts in the north and west only reaching 18C; Aberdeen only saw 16C. Widespread severe thunderstorms from the 7th to the 10th. The exceptional rainfall totals of this month are mind boggling. The usually dry Norfolk saw over 250mm in places. Many locations ranging from the south-west to parts of Wales recorded over 300mm with the most extreme examples being around Snowdonia with 635mm. Only the extreme north was dry with around half the normal in lucky Fort William. Sunshine was remarkably low with parts of the south-east having as low as 30%. Glasgow and Eskdalemuir had 10%!!!. By the far the most remarkable event occured late in the month. Trevor Harley writes: On the 26th a deepening depression brough severe weather to East Anglia, resulting in the Great Norfolk Flood. There were 206 mm of rainfall at Brundall, and 186 mm of rain at Norwich, with the rain continuing for 30 hours from the 26th into the 27th. The pressure at Great Yarmouth was 978 mbars. 100 mm of rain was widespread over Norfolk and Suffolk, with a westerly gale. The worst flooding caused by rain in East Anglia on record. Norwich was cut off for two days, with over 40 bridges destroyed, with flooding 15' deep in places. spreading out for 40 miles. Three people drowned, an one particular variety of Norwich canary was lost. Much of the Fens stayed under water through the following winter. 100 years later and 1912's little sibling let it be known that not even climate change would stop the legacy from continuing! The summer of 2012 may not have been as cool (15.27C) but it was every bit as wet with an EWP of 375mm, the 4th wettest summer on record. If not for a less exceptional August it could have easily taken 1912's place as wettest. I don't have to remind most of you how bad the summer of 2012 was as about 99.9% of the people reading this will have experienced it, so I'll be a little less full on with the stats. June 2012 kicked things off with a bang with an EWP of 160.1mm, the WETTEST June ever recorded. It was cool too with a C.E.T. of 13.5C, actually cooler than June 1912. It's also the dullest June on record for the UK as a whole. The month quickly turned unsettled after a hot end to May. The 3rd was the first true day of the summer we'd all come to know with torrential rain and temperatures struggling to exceed 11C north of London; Emley Moor (East Yorkshire) had a high of just 6.3C. Temperatures fell as low as 2C across East Anglia on the 5th. This was followed by an unusually wet and windy spell from the 7th to the 9th; In mid-Wales a major rescue effort was needed after severe flooding caused by prolonged heavy rain. Villages in Ceredigion were cut off with houses and caravan parks being flooded. Gusts of 62 mph. were recorded at Plymouth (Devon) on 7th and of 82 mph. at the Needles (Isle of Wight) in the early hours of 8th. Exceptionally cool and with localised flooding from the 11th to the 15th. After a chilly start on 13th when Santon Downham (Suffolk) dipped to 0.4C many places on the east coast failed to exceed 13C. Briefly dry and fine before further unsettled weather. Still, Northolt managed a tame 23.3C on the 20th with much of the SE around 21C. Foul conditions on the 21st; Heavy rain and high winds momentarily put out the Olympic flame and forced Blackpool's evening celebration indoors as the relay reached its halfway point. A grand outdoor finale had been planned in the seaside town but torrential and wind reaching up to 50mph curtailed the day's events. A trip to the top of Blackpool Tower was cancelled and, with the tower in sight, the flame went out as the squall worsened in the early evening. The month then briefly turned warmer but not without the summer's most infamous and iconic weather event, the supercell storms on the 28th. They've been well documented elsewhere on this site so go search! Leicestershire Tornadic Supercell Storms of 28th June 2012 | hinckleyweather's Blog HINCKLEYWEATHERBLOG.WORDPRESS.COM Every so often a weather event occurs that is so extreme and so sudden, that it can’t possibly be forecast or expected to happen in any particular location. The 28th of June 2012 was such an occasion when Hinckley... Still, the only warm weather of the month however brief was reached with 28.6C at Swanscombe (Kent) as the south-east missed the storms entirely. July 2012 was a cool and wet month, both cooler and wetter than July 1912 with a C.E.T. of 15.6 and an EWP of 120.4mm. The month was saved by a warm and sunny final week. Low pressure controlled the weather throughout the early period of the month with bands of rain giving way to sunny spells and heavy, thundery showers which were slow-moving at times. Some exceptional rainfall totals were recorded during this period. A month's worth of rain fell across Devon county over 24 hours on the 8th, with Yealmpton, Modbury and Ottery St Mary being among the worst areas hit. The council said initial estimates had revealed the clear-up costs would be more than £1m and the repair bill to Devon's highway network more than £3m. According to the Environment Agency, up to 90mm of rain fell in parts of south Devon and up to 120mm in parts of east Devon. It remained very cool, showery and with some further severe thunderstorms during the middle of the month. The first true fine spell of the summer for most from the 21st to the 26th with temperatures widely in the mid twenties, peaking at 30.7C at St. James's Park in London on the 25th. This broke by month's end with some severe thunderstorms on the 29th (One of the meanest looking clouds I've ever seen!). August 2012 was the warmest month of the summer and of any of the summer months discussed, with a C.E.T. of 16.7C and it has an EWP of 94.2mm; wet but not exceptionally so - and actually dry in the south-east. It was dull with around 86% of the average sunshine. An unsettled start with further thunderstorms. Slow-moving thundery downpours on the 5th caused localised flooding of properties and travel disruption invarious parts of England, Wales and Scotland. Worst hit were Pembrokeshire, Cheshire, Devon, Tyneside andthe Scottish Borders. Heavy showers led to further flooding in Tyneside on the 6th. Hotter around the middle section of the month with high pressure building bringing fine and dry weather for a time. Unsettled mid-month with thunderstorms but then turning hot with 32.4C on the 18th at Cavendish (Suffolk) the hottest temperature of the year (and actually lower than the max in 1912). Flooding in Northampton on the 15th with the Grovesner Shopping Centre being closed for flood damages. Minimum temperatures into the 18th remained above 19-20C in parts of East Anglia and SE England. The heat cleared but the summer wasn't without further unsettled weather and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms broke out on the 25th (Rainfall so heavy it almost flooded the shops at Lakeside I was in with my parents at the time!). Parts of Cumbria were hit by flash flooding after a night of heavy rain on the 30th. 40mm of rain fell in less than three hours, affecting areas including Sandwith, Egremont, St. Bees, Beckermet, Gosforth, Ravenglass and Seascale. A train carrying workers to the Sellafield nuclear plant derailed when it struck a landslide south of St Bees, near Nethertown, at about 0620 GMT. The passengers were rescued and put on a replacement train, but it was forced to stop because of another landslide. Torrential downpours in the Isle of Man led to the closure of a number of the island's roads. An unusually cold end to August with several places reporting their lowest-ever August temperature, including Aviemore -1.8C, Benson 2.1C and Bradford 2.8C. For those reading whom are immortal, perhaps book your holidays abroad in the summer of 2112.

WYorksWeather It's whether we end up shifting the HC far north enough to have a persistent influence. Indeed I can imagine summer rainfall overall not changing much due to those hot, dry summers being alongside very wet, humid and poor summers.

raz.org.rain I think it's a case of the specific type of eruption. Many cause cooling due to the reflection of sunlight back into the atmosphere, but some increase the temperature I think due to water droplets or something. I'm not a scientist as you can see. The latter may be giving some extra oomph to the warmth across the world right now. Part of why I think 2025 and 2026 may be a temporary pause as the effects of that fade out a little and other factors too (Famous last words). In his case though he meant the traditionally understood eruption.

Summer8906 Yes, you can add September 2000-April 2001 to that. I mistakenly miscalculated the January average (The all time average is only 82mm and January 2001 was 84.4mm so it technically counts). We've beat 1960-1961 and 2000-2001, pretty exceptional! Unless I missed some, I couldn't see any that lasted more than 6-8 months.

Summer8906 I do think I'll live to see the first 1300mm EWP year on record. I'll probably live to see the first 12, maybe even 13C year in the C.E.T. Also speaking of those extremes, 1852 was quite like 2020 because the spring was very dry; March and April only averaged 17mm and 20mm! May was near normal though. Yet the year averaged 1,213mm and had a 202mm November! Imagine if 2024 pulled a 200mm month out the hat. We haven't had one in 121 years. If any year was gonna do it... I went through the entire data set and I cannot find anything longer than the 13 month period from January 1872 through to January 1873. The time length I could find closest to where we're at right now was 8 months, the exceptionally wet period from July 1960 to February 1961 as well as the infamous September 2000-April 2001 period. We've surpassed those though as we're onto month number 9. To break the (I'm assuming) record, we'd need to keep above normal precipitation until August 2024 and make it 14 months. The all time averages for April through July are: April: 58mm May: 64mm June: 67mm July: 79mm August: 83mm We wouldn't need a washout neccesarily to make it. With that the case, it would be fascinating to see if we break it, though knowing the chances we'd probably get a dry May scupper the chances. Not sure many would be sad about a dry month though! I kinda would like to see it be broken at this point as, as stated, we wouldn't need an absolute washout to do it.

Summer8906 I'm also scrolling through the data, though just the EWP data for now. One thing I've realised from looking at the data is that, a lot of people have spoken about wet years in recent times having unusually dry months within them (see February 2023 for example) and how it's a sign of ever growing erratic rainfall, but historically it seems that a lot of these exceptionally wet years through times have been interspersed with very dry months here and there (further adding to the perhaps unprecedented run we're in now), so I don't think it's a new thing for us to see those rapid shifts within wet years.

CryoraptorA303 Perhaps a thread deep diving the summers of the 1960s would be interesting. I get a kick out of rummaging through data like no one else so I'd love to do it, just if anyone else would read it. You're right to suggest that they weren't always bad. Some truly were (1965 is a good example and just a plain odd year) but some were cool but weren't always low pressure dominated. Relates back to what I was talking about with Summer8906 how older summers had less forcing due to a weaker Hadley Cell so polar maritime air was more frequent which while cool, can be quite bright in the summertime. Also convective. It wouldn't surprise me if some of those 1960s beat recent summers for sunshine.

Summer8906 It would be the ultimate British irony if the Hadley Cell rose far enough to all but kill our winters but also grot up our summers as well. Instead of a future of 1995s, just a sea of warmer 1974s...