LetItSnow!

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

CryoraptorA303 I disagree about the browning of grass in summer comment too actually. Many summers you can have a slight discolouration. I can recall 2013, 2016 and even August 2020 before the brunt of the unsettled weather. I don't think it's an every year occurence though, but it is common. Grass and mud are quite fickle at surface level. Similar to how mud can become dry and cracked after a dry week or two even if its been unsettled (depending on soil type and area I suppose, but I've definitely seen that).

The 12z of the GFS sees a similar progression albeit in a slightly position. Perhaps a cool, wet and windy end to April on the cards.

While waiting for the 12z to roll out I couldn't help but notice how much of a big deal the GFS 6z made of low pressure around the 27th/28th. Wet and windy the name of the game here and only rather below average temperatures away from where rain may keep the temperatures down more notably. It does seem weaker pressure of some sort will be the dominating feature of late April, but whether it is slack pressure with showers or a return to notably wet and windy weather, it remains to be seen. If it does turn like this then April will go down as a thoroughly wet and dull month. Even this drier spell has seen showers on most days here in London. I'm seriously impressed at how long this wet spell has lasted. No drying out round here!

In yet another series of funny repeating patterns, the Aprils of 1814, 1914 and 2014 have all been well above average for temperature. The way we're going it may be a safe bet to assume April 2114 will be too!

Here's an interesting one, the anti-1740. The real 1740 is by far the coldest year ever recorded. Using the C.E.T. and limited data/reports from this year, here's what its anti may look like. I imagine a year in the 2020s or 2030s could read like this, so it's written in the style of that rather than as "anti-1740". The C.E.T.s are not calculated by the opposite anomaly but by each months relative ranking in the C.E.T. Jan 7.1 Feb 7.3 Mar 6.8 Apr 9.7 May 13.9 Jun 16.0 Jul 16.5 Aug 16.7 Sep 12.8 Oct 14.3 Nov 9.2 Dec 6.0 - 11.36C This winter was extremely mild. It included a notably mild January and February, both of which were in the 'top-5' of coldest such-named months. Using the CET series, both January and February averaged above 7.0C, the only time this has ever occured. An exceptionally severe south-westerly gale on the 11th of January accomapnied by remarkably mild temperatures in the mid-teens. London saw its most damaging windstorm since 1703. Much of southern England was completely frost free during both January and February. A notably wet January across England & Wales. Heavy rainfall over the winter culminated in severe flooding in March. Following a warm winter, a notably warm spring. Temperatures on the 16th of May rose to 32C in London, breaking the record for the earliest 90F ever recorded. A very warm June followed. After a period of unexceptional temperatures from July to September the anomalous warmth returned in October, breaking the record for warmest such-named month by over 1C. Unusually warm from the 9th to the 12th of October with temperatures into the upper 20s. Alternatively, the C.E.Ts relative to their rankings at the time instead of all time. Jan 7.5 Feb 8.5 Mar 7.9 Apr 10.5 May 13.8 Jun 17.0 Jul 18.0 Aug 18.0 Sep 11.5 Oct 14.3 Nov 8.6 Dec 7.3 - 11.91C

Metwatch Interesting that it's turning into another month with the brunt of the warm anomalies in England, especially the south. Considering the month is only slightly above average in Scotland, will this colder second half lead to just an average month for temperature in Scotland? Granted the anomalies are against the 1991-2020 averages, so no - but for the current era maybe. Only at the 19th and a large swathe of northern England and southern Scotland are exceptionally above normal for rainfall. Granted its only the 19th but sunshine tracking to be pretty dismal everywhere. Absolutely no surprise given the south-westerlies that dominated the first half.

jamesthemonkeh Dare I say that looks a tad unstable, showery at least, with strong April sunshine and slack pressure. Could be a few rumbles with that.

Metwatch Back in the days when weather used to be real weather!

summer blizzard 1818 seems to have a blistering June-July pairing with a CET of 16.4 and 18.2 respectively. August 1818 didn’t wanna play ball though at 15.3C. Extremely dry summer though oddly despite August being the coolest month it was the driest with a paltry 20mm on the EWP series. I imagine 1818 must’ve been very blocked, a very meridional type pattern that aligned well for UK heat at first but then changed to lots of cool but dry weather later. I imagine if it had existed, the synoptic charts would have a lot of HP over and to our west. 2001 a much more straightforward British summer type fare and one I’d be fine with.

May 2018 was for the true summer lovers as it had the warmth and sunniness as well as explosive convection. May 2020 was more for the nature walk type who just enjoy bright and comfortable weather. I preferred May 2020 as it seemed far sunnier and pleasant and had some interesting synoptic variation, though the storms of late May 2018 were awe inspiring.

There is no direct correlation between the weather in spring and the following summer, but there are many examples of years that had “dismal” springs that had nice summers after then. At a browse I can see: 2013, 1996, 1983, 1975, 1969 *Edit 1969 is an interesting summer, definitely forgotten. Not an all time classic but it seems to have been very pleasant. June 1969 was very sunny and apparently the sunniest on record in London at the time, though temperatures were a little below average due to some cool nights. July 1969 seems to have been a month punctuated by two extremely wet spells early and late but warm and dry during the middle third with the temperature up to 32C on the 22nd. Very dry in Scotland and dry overall except where the rains came on the 6th and then the 28th/29th, the latter of which seems to have been ferociously thundery. August 1969 seemed to have a bit of a NW/SE split, very dry in the NW but wet and dull in the extreme east but for most quite good. For the 1960s standards it would have been gorgeous. I’d take it over 2022 any day.

I thought this video was great. It may not be perfect but we’re making more progress than I thought we were. I do believe it’s possible we could avoid the very worst. Also seemed to dispel the emissions myth.

Metwatch The definition of spring-like is iffy in this country when you can have such Aprils such and 2011 and 2012 contrasting eachother. But what I meant, and maybe ir was not the best word to use, but that early flowering and budding and such remarkably persistent mildness meant that the month felt like a particularly gnarly spell of weather in late March or April. The mildness combined with the local exceptionally early budding and flowering meant that to me it was spring-like, but not everyone has the same definition.

Sun Chaser Just not with the July 2023 bit tacked on after?

ANYWEATHER Certainly will feel cold if we get cold, wet and blustery north-easterly winds! I imagine the feels like temperatures would be quite the picture on the 0z around the 26th with 40-50mph NE winds around north-east coastal areas with heavy rain to boot. But it may not be that bad, little movements in where the low eventually ends up could make such a large difference as to whether it’s just showery and chilly or cold and miserable. Shades of 1998/2007 yet again…

Alderc 2.0 Most peoples projections are based on their own preferences. Unless you’re a hardcore analytical weather buff or are really good at putting biases aside, “forecasts” are going to be an extension of what people want to see. Lots of people on here who like hot summers are dead set on a hot one, people who like it cool thinking it’ll be cool. I try to remain unbiased as possible. If it looks hot I’ll say it’s hot, if cold, then cold.

Even if somehow seeding was involved, it’s not going to create the instability provided to make the storms happen, it would just add to their intensity slightly. It also doesn’t account for the thundery outbreaks in other countries in that region of the world. Simply, it’s a convective spell of weather due to unstable weather patterns. It’s so frustrating seeing the comments on the DM site (what else can you expect) just spout absolute nonsense over things they know nothing about. Copious mentions of Lynmouth when a basic understanding of a synoptic chart and convection dispels the theory entirely. These theories keep persisting because people don’t understand the facts so it’s easy for them to assign it to whatever their enemy is. Happens all the time even with non weather related things. Rant over. The rain in some of those videos really was monstrous though, just sheets of it cascading down. I’d love to know the rainfall rates. The amount that must have fell to cause the water to forcefully destroy buildings like that is enormous. The videos of Lamborghinis plowing through floodwaters couldn’t be more telling of our situation really. All the material riches don’t mean a thing when the earth itself is against you!

Winter 2010 without a doubt. Coldest and snowiest though nowhere near as good further south, especially once we got to February, but up north it was a very harsh winter, I think it may have been the most severe in Scotland since 1963 or at least on a par with 1979. Spring 2016 because it was variable. March had some wintriness early on, then a long nice anticyclonic spell and then very stormy at the end. April had the cold end. May was quite nice though nothing to write home about. There was a very beautiful day on the 9th when we got up to about 25C. Summer 2011 because it was often cool but not with the floods of 2012 and I do remember some very severe thunderstorms on the 28th of June. Very comfortable summer with only one notable hot spell coming at the end of June. Autumn 2016 because it was such a beautiful season that really highlighted the best of each month and had beautiful colours, the most vibrant I’ve ever seen. September was interesting for the heat and storms, October was often pleasant and November felt like a proper old school affair with limited mild weather and while mostly dry it did have some stormy weather on the 20th too. Unfortunately the winter that followed was far less pleasant. Add a December 2010 to the end to classify as winter and the year would be even better! That would make a funny ole year though, generally average to below average conditions persisting but with a very warm September.

Another interesting observation on the 0z that I glossed over is the chart for the 26th. Now don’t expect this to verify but it’s a good example of how cloud and wind so heavily impact surface temperatures. The chart is for low pressure to be in the North Sea bringing gusty NE winds. The uppers are unexceptional but the projected daytime highs are pegged into single digits for many under a mass of cold rain. How much cloud and rain pepper the UK as we go into late April will determine how chilly it’ll be. The suns strength will easily lift temperatures into double digits even with chilly uppers. As my above post basically says though, details will be firmed up on (apologies for double post, feels like bad manners but it’s pretty quiet and I thought it was helpful).

Alderc 2.0 Low pressure to the south can sometimes equate to high pressure overhead or nearby which usually leads to easterly winds. Something like that occurred last year when there was an extensive trough across southern Europe in May 2023 which lead to quite a lot of flooding, but we kept high and dry under high pressure and that kept on through June. Now those easterlies can prove fatal for eastern coastal locations as many saw last year.

MP-R We disagreed about this before. Before I said “Well down here most days ranged between 11C and 15C and while it was very dull and very wet, blossom, bushes and even some trees began to bloom early in the month and there was that spell on the 15th which saw temperatures in the mid-teens. Plus the CET was in the mid 8s up until like the 20th.”. If you have a zonal set up in March or November I don’t really think it feels that different, it’s just the mind that makes March feel better because you know you’re on the way to brighter days eventually whereas November you know you’ve got a long way to go. This country’s climate has the novel quality for every season to be able to feel like any other season extreme cases - 6C days in June, 21C days in February etc.

Wondering if this is a brief hiccup in an overall warm period like the second half of September 2022 or whether there’s a fundamental pattern shift starting to take place. The parallels to 1998 and 2007 I’ve spoken about at length both featured these shifts. The shift occurred around this time in 1998 but started showing its signs in May in 2007. Both times it wasn’t a clean cut shift, May 1998 being very warm and dry and the first half of June 2007 being warm, though dull. Eventually though they broke the anomalously warm conditions into the summer. Wonder if this is a sign of that… Time will tell. MP-R To be fair, you can flip the word form spring like to autumn like however you wish. We can all agree one thing it wasn’t though: winter like!

0z sees a prominent Euro trough by Thursday the 25th which brings in a very cool north/northeasterly wind. This forms a meandering low pressure system centred over the south of the country by Saturday the 27th. In the extended range, pressure remains generally weak to our south with a cool E/NE flow. This is a marked change to the precocious spring so far across northern Europe. The 0z pans out quite similarly to the 18z so perhaps there is traction that unsettled weather may return to finish off the month. This pattern of low pressure overhead will usually bring sunshine and showers but a north-easterly flow, especially with warmer than average SST anomalies in the North Sea may aid with a lot of cloud development. A very dull, chilly and raw spell focused on southern and eastern England may be on the cards for the rest of the month. Combined with a very wet and dull half to the month, perhaps April 2024 is shaping up to be one of the wettest and dullest in quite a few years, particularly in the east. Of course the final outcome is yet to be resolved but with north-easterlies likely on the cards, I’ll highlight the remarkable variety of the synoptics this month: This month is reminding me of an April version of September 2022, running ridiculously warm then turning much colder.

B87 I disagree entirely. Until about the 20th it was running warmer than an average April and there were many days in the low to mid teens Celsius including some days in the upper teens. No denying the month was springlike to me even if it was dull and wet.