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LetItSnow!

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  1. You put it in much more detail that I could. Amazing that 30C was exceeded so late in the season.
  2. On another note completely, it seems like a trend for extremes in weather in years ending ‘95. 1695 — Extremely cold year, second only to 1740. Severe winter, very cold spring, remarkably cold summer with great rains and then a very cold autumn. 1795 — Coldest January on record in an overall exceptionally severe winter. Cold and wet spring. Exceptionally dry & warm September. Very mild December leading to one of the warmest winters on record. 1895 — Extremely cold winter, one of the coldest Februaries on record. Exceptionally warm, sunny and dry September then exceptionally cold October. 1995 — Extremely wet winter, early May heatwave, remarkably hot and dry, arid summer; the driest summer on record. Hottest, sunniest and driest August on record. One of the warmest 30 day non calendar periods on record. Extremely wet September. Exceptionally warm October. The coldest temperature ever recorded in the UK, -27.2 at Altnaharra (?) on Dec. 30th. A very dry and and an exceptionally sunny year. 2095 — ? So you can see a trend for pronounced weather events in these years. Who knows what 2095 will be. Hoping more setting records for cold than heat… The funny thing is if I live to an old age I may very well get to experience 2095 as I would be 94!
  3. I don’t think anyone is trying to get away from that. He’s just stating that a some steady drop is likely to occur and would probably take us below 16. 15s are my feel at the moment (as of what output I saw earlier)
  4. This warm September is good cause to make a thread regarding this unusual pair of months, and why those wanting a cold October need not despair! After an indifferent summer, Sept. 1895 was a very warm month with a C.E.T. of 15.4. It was warmer than July! Nights were close to normal but by day, Sept. 1895 ranks 2nd hottest, only beaten by 2006. It was also a very dry month with an average rainfall of 23.3mm. Much of the south of England had barely any rainfall and most fell during thunderstorms on the 6th/7th. Unsurprisingly, it was also a very sunny month. Many stations recorded their sunniest September on record at the time. Hastings recorded 171% average sunshine. A warm pattern is established very early on with a hot push of southerly winds on the 2nd. The very few traces of rain fell courtesy of weak pressure associated with hot southeasterly winds on the 6th. This feature was so weak that by the following evening, pressure had already rose, thereby killing off any thunderstorms. I can't find any reports on any individual storms but apparently they were juicy! A briefly more unsettled period followed but high pressure was never far away from the southeast. High pressure was dominant again by the 15th and was going nowhere fast. Upper air temperatures fluctuated during this period but days stayed warm. A brief spell of colder weather, albiet still dry, came on the 20th. This was the coldest part of the month with frosts in the Scottish mountains. The coldest weather was very shortly followed by the warmest. September from this point was entirely HP dominated with very warm southerly winds. There were some unusually hot temperatures recorded, record breaking for the time, with temperatures in excess of 27C recorded in many places. In some areas, the month was over 3 degrees above the then-average. The comes October... October, 1895 was an exceptionally cold October, being one of the coldest on record with a CET of 7.1. Rainfall was unremarkable at 113.3mm. The month was mostly just very cold, with no remarkable falls of rain or gales reported. Despite the cold, sunshine was once again above average, notably so in places. However, the month began very warm with the remnants of Septembers heat. 25C was recorded at Hillington on the 1st. An active cold front swept in on the 2nd, probably accompanied by heavy rain, gales and thunder. This would have felt very shocking after a month of fine weather. It then stayed generally very unsettled. It wasn't until the 16th that the true nature of the month came to be, as cold air swept south, albeit within high pressure. By the 22nd, strong northern blocking and low pressure in the Azores let very cold air in from the Artic region. From the 22nd to the 29th, snowfall was widespread, particularly in the north and west. Temperatures were very cold, particularly at night, and on the 23rd/24th and the 28th-30th temperatures got down as low as -8C at Llandovery, -7C at Blackpool and Carlisle. Amazingly, the following October would be colder, but that autumn deserves its own thread which I may do next. While November, 1895 wasn't a particularly interesting month, it's notable for being warmer than the preceding October. It's generally a mild and wet month with lots of low pressure and SW winds, but it has a very short but fairly intense cold snap on the 24th with a great deal of snow. It has a CET of 7.5 and an average of 122.2mm The following winter of 1895/1896 turned out to be a mild but exceptionally dry winter.
  5. Won't go off topic but surely France/Spain must have had an exceptionally wet year...
  6. Not checked model output today but guessing a slightly warmer option is favoured. Yesterday some of the models were showing some genuinely autumnal weather like the GEM.
  7. Might have a go at making my own historic weather videos in the near future, inspired by good ole Gavin at GWV. ☀️ 

  8. A quick look at the models shows a cooler outlook into the second half of September than what has been seen so far. One to watch out for as that will pummel the CET figure into the 14s or 15s. I’m not too confident of a 15.5-16.0+ finish now but output could change. It’s nice to see the onset of autumn though. Once mid-September arrives I lose interest in hot weather. We’ll see if this trend continues.
  9. I hope to see a winter like 1683/1684 in my lifetime. Some may say it’s not possible but I still believe. 337 years later and it’s still not been beat in the record book. Winter 2021/2022 I dare you
  10. Wintry showers and hard frosts to end September? I’d take it. Interesting output from the ECM but I never take anything at day 10 too seriously. Would be funny if we had similarly cold conditions in Sep/Oct as in April. If I had a penny for every time a “no way that could happen” chart actually happened I might be close to purchasing a Freddo.
  11. An unusual occurrence in what was in most areas a dry month in a dry autumn. Fascinating read.
  12. I’ve always been sceptical of those types of forecasts anyway. I really don’t believe that things like a small window of rainfall or temperature or how the autumn pattern is have much to do with anything with how the following winter will pan out, but that’s just my opinion. In terms of this September, did not see it coming! But caution to those who think 16+ is nailed on, it’s definitely not. September is a cooling time of year and any northerly snap late in the month + downwards corrections could see us dip, but regardless of that, it’s very most likely coming out warmer than average. The question is how much? Only last year September tricked us with its warm first half…
  13. I remember reading about 1540 being an absolutely extreme summer across the UK & Europe. Some of the reports, particularly on the advanced growth of fruits and such, really paint how extremely hot it must have been. If only we had 500mb charts and the C.E.T. series as old as that. Reports show a very mild and dry winter, very warm spring and then an exceptionally hot summer with water shortages by May (Italy). Even Scandinavia reported a lack of rain. Research seems to suggest it’s on a par with 2003, but there’s a 20% chance it could have been hotter than that. I can’t imagine the same type of set up in the modern age.
  14. It's been five years since, what is in my opinion my favourite autumn in living memory. What I loved about it was the variability and sheer lack of windstorms which gave an incredibly colourful display of leaves. Let's take a look down memory lane. Sep. 2016 was the warmest September for ten years, mostly down to an exceptional heatwave mid-month. The month opened generally unsettled but quite warm in the south. The 3rd was a rare cloudy, wet and windy day with low pressure overhead, but it wasn't to last. By the 7th we began to draw up very warm air from the south; 29.3C at Gravesend. A brief cooler interlude preluded an exceptional hot spell and some big thunderstorms. On the 13th, courtesy of a heat low across France, we dragged up some exceptionally hot upper-air temperatures. This led to 34.4C being recorded at Gravesend (good ole Gravesend). This was the hottest day of the entire year, extrodinarily late. Big thunderstorms followed. The second-half of the month was much quieter, generally on the dry side but with changeable interludes. Never overly cold either, just seasonable. Overall a very memorable September, especially after quite a mixed summer. Oct. 2016 was a very quiet month with very little in the way of stormy weather, something which aided a fantastic display of colour on the leaves. It was a very average October for temperature, but more noteworthy was how dry it was, under 40% of the average rainfall. Only E. Scotland recieved near-average rainfall. It was also the sunniest October on record in N. Scotland and sunnier than average overall. It was a very easterly month. D espite this, the month did start unsettled under a weak trough. I remember this well, as this brought a sharp drop in temperature and some heavy showers, much needed as it had been bone dry since early July. It didn't last, and soon a Scandinavian high began to take control. A lot of the upper air temperatures throughout this month would have been quite chilly. Sunshine totals weren't particularly high on the east coast, indicative of cloudier, drizzly weather there. I just seem to remember this month for being utterly and wholely benign. It was lovely... if you like that sort of thing! I'm quite surprised looking back at how snowy these synoptics would have been if they occured just two/three months later! The month ended very warm however, with 22.2c at Trawscoed (Dyfed) on the 31st. Nov. 2016 was a much colder than average month, in complete contrast with September. It was also very sunny, widely so. It was, in my experience, probably the wintriest month of the whole winter. It was colder than the December and February it preceded! It bean wintry and on the 5th/6th we had a northerly plunge. It didn't bring any snow to me in Kent but I remember it being cold, frosty and clear, the perfect Bonfire Night conditions. A more changeable period followed and the 14th/15th brought the mildest feeling part of the month. I remember the 15th being very dark, dank, mild and humid. It was the only day of the month like it. Colder conditions soon followed. The 20th/21st brought the only real stormy weather of the entire autumn, but even this was atypical, with low pressure coming up from the southwest. I remember this night quite well. Very windy and wet with very heavy showers tracking northwards. That cleared very quickly and then the month ended under an anticyclone. This period of weather was my favourite of the entire season. This was very cold where I am. From the 25th to the 30th there were some very cold nights with days barely getting much above freezing and sparkling sunshine. It was the perfect way to close a wonderful season. The autumn itself came in very close to average in terms of temperature, but was much drier and sunnier than average. What are your thoughts on this autumn? Are they as fond as mine or do you prefer proper wet and windy autumns like 2000 & 2019?
  15. From my personal experiences: I spent June & July in Kent and August near Carlisle. June: Exceedingly cool, very wet and very dull until the 22nd. I remember hanging out with friends on the 22nd just before the hot spell and we were remarking how it was the first sunny, warm day in what felt like a month. The heat at the end of the month I remember, but I don't remember it feeling out of the ordinary. I know cool air from the North Sea or something like that stopped us from exceeding 33-34C that day. The thing I remember most about it was the incessant heavy rain. It started on the 4th, which I actually remember being thankful for, as the ground was a little dry at that point. Then it never stopped. I remember a period around the 10th-13th that poured and poured. I was in Maidstone at the time. We missed the worst but I remember radar watching and areas to my north like Snodland got hit hard. Then they were in the news for recording in excess of 100mm in one afternoon. I also experienced strong thunderstorms on the 17th and the early hours of the 25th. July: Thoroughly unremarkable until the 25th, then remaining unremarkable afterwards. Most of my memory recalls the first three or so weeks of July being changeable with sunny days mixed with the odd cloudy and cool one, but never anything that remarkable. One exception was on the 20th when I actually witnessed one of the most intense rainfalls I've ever seen. A storm rumbled up and gave Maidstone an absolute monstrous deluge, to the point that water was flowing up to our front door. The sound of the rain was so loud. Then of course came the heat on the 25th. I generally remember feeling miserably hot and humid in my victorian terrace. Didn't last long though, it turned much cooler by the 26th with more thunderstorms. I remember the wind blowing through the house feeling cold and the constant rumbling of thunder and lightning strikes despite it still being late. The final days of the month did a 180 and it was very cool, cloudy and generally poor. August: Very wet and dull. The least memorable of the three months as I didn't really witness much in the way of the extreme weather. The entrance to the month was unsettled but humid. I remember around the 9th there being an unusually warm and windy way. It was very wet and rain fell frequently. Maps confirm that NW England had a very wet August so that confirms my memory. Just really miserable a lot of the time, but there were some sunny and warm spells. I think the warmest I experienced that month was a very benign 26C. I did experience some torrential rain on the 18th that, while not the most extreme, was pretty monstrous. September: Thought I'd add September too. I spent the first-half of the month in the north but came home on the 21st. Whenever I see this month regarded as warm I'm always a little confused as any warmth in the south I missed out on. The first half I remember being very benign. Sunny/mixed clouds kind of days and some chilly nights. By the time I came home that's when autumn really kicked into gear and it didn't stop raining. That pattern persisted until mid-March. Overall, I enjoyed it. I enjoy unusually cool and wet conditions in summer from a meteological standpoint, so Jun. 2019 particularly interested me. I genuinely believed we were on our way for our coldest June since 1991 but the hot end spoiled it. I also think July was spoiled by the heatwave at the end as that was turning into quite a benign but pleasant month. By August, things in my personal life had gotten quite stressful so the unremmitingly dull and wet weather only compounded that, despite my aforementioned usual enjoyment of such conditions. Take the heat spikes out and I would have enjoyed it much more.
  16. Favourite 1) April through June - love this time of year for the pretty flowers, blossom, trees coming into leaf, spring showers and the overall increasing light. 2) September & October - the slow descent into cooler and crisp weather and the beautiful leaves. 2016 was a particularly good autumn as the sunshine and lack of wind gave beautiful displays. 3) February & March - the general feeling that the worst of the winter is over and the hope of spring 4) July & August - I'm cheating but I couldn't not mention them as the sunny, warm days and the overall joy of summer is lovely. However, hot spells like 2019 & 2020 can make it unbearable. Least fond 1) November into December - not bad if cold, snowy and overall seasonable, but when mild, it can be unbearable. the seemingly unending mild dross and lack of light can really be hard to cope with. 2) January - same as above. if it's cold and snowy it's fine but when mild it can feel like forever. I particularly remember the winter of 2020 seemingly lasting forever. 3) I don't really have a third. These are all general answers and can be different based on the year. For example, autumn 2016 I found beautiful, whereas autumns like 2014 seem boring and dull.
  17. As we progress further into September and October, any easterlies will quickly become quite cloudy, raw feeling and drizzly
  18. Absolutely fascinating read. As someone who is very much a person who loves sorting through data AND has a passion for weather and meteorology, I just want to say thank you for putting in the effort to post all this. It must take so incredibly long. It is much appreciated
  19. Thoroughly pleasant feeling day, no oppresiveness to the heat like you get in midsummer. Longer nights lead to more pleasantly cooler evenings too. Got me hungering to be by the sea
  20. At least 2016/2017 benefitted from a seasonabl January... Not sure about in the north but down in the south I seem to remember Jan. 2017 seeming seasonable most of the time and we even managed a decent snowfall on the 13th. There was also a bit of a forgotten easterly in the first-half of Feb. 2017 though I don't seem to remember anything about it so there must be a reason it's forgotten about! After a decently frosty & cold November it was a let down. I'm off course! I gave my predictions and I still think 21/22 will be the one to deliver the goods properly this time. 20/21 was a teaser... I hope
  21. What's reflective of the very low pressure dominated, snowy winter is that while most cold winters are drier than average, 1978/1979 was a much wetter than average winter. This was mostly down to a very wet December, but January and February had more "rainfall" than you would assume cold months would. Jan. 1979, despite averaging sub-zero, has an EWP of 89.6mm and Feb. 1979, 72.8mm. Spring 1979 was also very wet as well as cold. I believe I read it ranks in the upper echelons of very wet springs in the 20th century. March and May were particularly wet. Overall, Dec. 1978 through May, 1979 looks like an incredibly hard time for the weather. June/July, 1979 must have been a Godsend in comparison, despite not being overly special in the record books.
  22. Interesting compared to spring 1963 which was actually quite mild. Particularly March and April
  23. The Christmas & New Year period of 1923/1924 featured a close call to some extremely cold air but was a case of bad (or good, depending on your viewpoint) luck! To set the scene, Nov. 1923 was one of the coldest November’s of the 20th century. In comparison, the first half of December was much milder with a strong westerly flow and spells of unsettled weather and high pressure alternating. All change on the 18th as high pressure begins to retrogress and by the 19th we’re in a very cold northerly wind. A very expansive region of cold air is beginning to build over Scandinavia, but blocking isn’t strong enough to hold and we end up in a chilly northwesterly instead Christmas Eve finds another short lived northerly burst bringing snow showers and then on Christmas Day, mild air from the Atlantic moves in courtesy of an area of low pressure This brought widespread frontal snowfall. A white Christmas for most. A closer view shows another round of northerly (NNE) winds bringing in another round of cold air. What’s notable to me is the depth of cold across Scandinavia; minus 15-17 is widespread but there’s a patch of close to minus 30 at 850hpa! The westerly push is too strong and any cold air is pushed away into the 29th. New Year’s Eve 1923 is, once again, very close to being cold, but we’re under the influence of mild westerlies By early January, 1924 the cold pool is still over to our east, seemingly not going anywhere and still quite intense. It isn’t until the 9th when, bizarrely, an undercutting low ends up dislodging the cold pool and sending it over Scotland and Shetland. This looks like a proper dumping of snow across the Midlands, northern England and Scotland. Impressive how the cold pool is still existent at this point Finally by the 12th the cold has dissipated and we’re in a very mild southwesterly. Overall Jan. 1924 was actually quite a mild month. If there hadn’t been such an influence from the Atlantic this could have been a lengthy cold spell for the history books. But alas, it didn’t quite work out that way. Must have been intense across Europe though. Would be frustrating to witness something like this, though at least we did get some snow events from it. Reports from this spell: Dec. 1923: Very snowy in the north, 17 days of lying snow at Deerness, 11 at York and around 2-6 in the London area, mostly occurring around and on Christmas Day. Up to 6 inches snow across Yorkshire on Christmas Day and 8 inches in Glasgow, the heaviest fall since 1890. A very active thunderstorm reported on the 19th with vivid lightning display in the Southampton area. Jan. 1924: Overall a mild month but with a very snosy spell the week ending the 12th. The 9th was the coldest day of the month with most stations not exceeding freezing, and some reports of 25F being the maximum temperature that day. Also on the 9th, the heaviest snowfall in many years recorded across northern England with severe drifts. London had its snowiest spell for many years.
  24. While not as severe in the records, reports show that 1978/1979 was an especially rough one to deal with.
  25. It’s things like that that can hammer down the C.E.T. I’m looking forward to the prospect of some beautiful chilly nights with frost and fog. Winter is coming
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