LetItSnow!

Metwatch Back in the days when weather used to be real weather!

summer blizzard 1818 seems to have a blistering June-July pairing with a CET of 16.4 and 18.2 respectively. August 1818 didn’t wanna play ball though at 15.3C. Extremely dry summer though oddly despite August being the coolest month it was the driest with a paltry 20mm on the EWP series. I imagine 1818 must’ve been very blocked, a very meridional type pattern that aligned well for UK heat at first but then changed to lots of cool but dry weather later. I imagine if it had existed, the synoptic charts would have a lot of HP over and to our west. 2001 a much more straightforward British summer type fare and one I’d be fine with.

May 2018 was for the true summer lovers as it had the warmth and sunniness as well as explosive convection. May 2020 was more for the nature walk type who just enjoy bright and comfortable weather. I preferred May 2020 as it seemed far sunnier and pleasant and had some interesting synoptic variation, though the storms of late May 2018 were awe inspiring.

There is no direct correlation between the weather in spring and the following summer, but there are many examples of years that had “dismal” springs that had nice summers after then. At a browse I can see: 2013, 1996, 1983, 1975, 1969 *Edit 1969 is an interesting summer, definitely forgotten. Not an all time classic but it seems to have been very pleasant. June 1969 was very sunny and apparently the sunniest on record in London at the time, though temperatures were a little below average due to some cool nights. July 1969 seems to have been a month punctuated by two extremely wet spells early and late but warm and dry during the middle third with the temperature up to 32C on the 22nd. Very dry in Scotland and dry overall except where the rains came on the 6th and then the 28th/29th, the latter of which seems to have been ferociously thundery. August 1969 seemed to have a bit of a NW/SE split, very dry in the NW but wet and dull in the extreme east but for most quite good. For the 1960s standards it would have been gorgeous. I’d take it over 2022 any day.

I thought this video was great. It may not be perfect but we’re making more progress than I thought we were. I do believe it’s possible we could avoid the very worst. Also seemed to dispel the emissions myth.

Metwatch The definition of spring-like is iffy in this country when you can have such Aprils such and 2011 and 2012 contrasting eachother. But what I meant, and maybe ir was not the best word to use, but that early flowering and budding and such remarkably persistent mildness meant that the month felt like a particularly gnarly spell of weather in late March or April. The mildness combined with the local exceptionally early budding and flowering meant that to me it was spring-like, but not everyone has the same definition.

Sun Chaser Just not with the July 2023 bit tacked on after?

ANYWEATHER Certainly will feel cold if we get cold, wet and blustery north-easterly winds! I imagine the feels like temperatures would be quite the picture on the 0z around the 26th with 40-50mph NE winds around north-east coastal areas with heavy rain to boot. But it may not be that bad, little movements in where the low eventually ends up could make such a large difference as to whether it’s just showery and chilly or cold and miserable. Shades of 1998/2007 yet again…

Alderc 2.0 Most peoples projections are based on their own preferences. Unless you’re a hardcore analytical weather buff or are really good at putting biases aside, “forecasts” are going to be an extension of what people want to see. Lots of people on here who like hot summers are dead set on a hot one, people who like it cool thinking it’ll be cool. I try to remain unbiased as possible. If it looks hot I’ll say it’s hot, if cold, then cold.

Even if somehow seeding was involved, it’s not going to create the instability provided to make the storms happen, it would just add to their intensity slightly. It also doesn’t account for the thundery outbreaks in other countries in that region of the world. Simply, it’s a convective spell of weather due to unstable weather patterns. It’s so frustrating seeing the comments on the DM site (what else can you expect) just spout absolute nonsense over things they know nothing about. Copious mentions of Lynmouth when a basic understanding of a synoptic chart and convection dispels the theory entirely. These theories keep persisting because people don’t understand the facts so it’s easy for them to assign it to whatever their enemy is. Happens all the time even with non weather related things. Rant over. The rain in some of those videos really was monstrous though, just sheets of it cascading down. I’d love to know the rainfall rates. The amount that must have fell to cause the water to forcefully destroy buildings like that is enormous. The videos of Lamborghinis plowing through floodwaters couldn’t be more telling of our situation really. All the material riches don’t mean a thing when the earth itself is against you!

Winter 2010 without a doubt. Coldest and snowiest though nowhere near as good further south, especially once we got to February, but up north it was a very harsh winter, I think it may have been the most severe in Scotland since 1963 or at least on a par with 1979. Spring 2016 because it was variable. March had some wintriness early on, then a long nice anticyclonic spell and then very stormy at the end. April had the cold end. May was quite nice though nothing to write home about. There was a very beautiful day on the 9th when we got up to about 25C. Summer 2011 because it was often cool but not with the floods of 2012 and I do remember some very severe thunderstorms on the 28th of June. Very comfortable summer with only one notable hot spell coming at the end of June. Autumn 2016 because it was such a beautiful season that really highlighted the best of each month and had beautiful colours, the most vibrant I’ve ever seen. September was interesting for the heat and storms, October was often pleasant and November felt like a proper old school affair with limited mild weather and while mostly dry it did have some stormy weather on the 20th too. Unfortunately the winter that followed was far less pleasant. Add a December 2010 to the end to classify as winter and the year would be even better! That would make a funny ole year though, generally average to below average conditions persisting but with a very warm September.

Another interesting observation on the 0z that I glossed over is the chart for the 26th. Now don’t expect this to verify but it’s a good example of how cloud and wind so heavily impact surface temperatures. The chart is for low pressure to be in the North Sea bringing gusty NE winds. The uppers are unexceptional but the projected daytime highs are pegged into single digits for many under a mass of cold rain. How much cloud and rain pepper the UK as we go into late April will determine how chilly it’ll be. The suns strength will easily lift temperatures into double digits even with chilly uppers. As my above post basically says though, details will be firmed up on (apologies for double post, feels like bad manners but it’s pretty quiet and I thought it was helpful).

Alderc 2.0 Low pressure to the south can sometimes equate to high pressure overhead or nearby which usually leads to easterly winds. Something like that occurred last year when there was an extensive trough across southern Europe in May 2023 which lead to quite a lot of flooding, but we kept high and dry under high pressure and that kept on through June. Now those easterlies can prove fatal for eastern coastal locations as many saw last year.

MP-R We disagreed about this before. Before I said “Well down here most days ranged between 11C and 15C and while it was very dull and very wet, blossom, bushes and even some trees began to bloom early in the month and there was that spell on the 15th which saw temperatures in the mid-teens. Plus the CET was in the mid 8s up until like the 20th.”. If you have a zonal set up in March or November I don’t really think it feels that different, it’s just the mind that makes March feel better because you know you’re on the way to brighter days eventually whereas November you know you’ve got a long way to go. This country’s climate has the novel quality for every season to be able to feel like any other season extreme cases - 6C days in June, 21C days in February etc.

Wondering if this is a brief hiccup in an overall warm period like the second half of September 2022 or whether there’s a fundamental pattern shift starting to take place. The parallels to 1998 and 2007 I’ve spoken about at length both featured these shifts. The shift occurred around this time in 1998 but started showing its signs in May in 2007. Both times it wasn’t a clean cut shift, May 1998 being very warm and dry and the first half of June 2007 being warm, though dull. Eventually though they broke the anomalously warm conditions into the summer. Wonder if this is a sign of that… Time will tell. MP-R To be fair, you can flip the word form spring like to autumn like however you wish. We can all agree one thing it wasn’t though: winter like!