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LetItSnow!

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    Cold winters and cool summers.

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  1. Metwatch A lot of notoriously bad summers had a lot of convective episodes and severe storms.
  2. richie3846 The little variance in the percentages hides large differences as stated. If I had selected years from before then it would be relatively dryer. Variability as part of the cyclical pattern has always existed but seemed to be rather more polarised in the mid-20th century.
  3. Long post coming up but I thought it's interesting. Mods can move this if they think it's better somewhere else. The "is it getting wetter?" question is interesting, so I thought I'd put the anomalies of each decade of the past 100 years, though since we're only in 2023 I'm doing it like 1914-1923, 1924-1933 etc. The anomaly I'm using is the all time UKP average from 1766 to present day so it takes into account all wetter and drier phases. Also, since these are just slices of ten years in time you could say it's rather arbitrary, but it's a crude way to see if the percentages are going up or whether they fall in line with natural variability. The all time annual rainfall average is 922mm. 1914-1923: 926.4mm (101%) 1924-1933: 962.7mm (104%) 1934-1943: 912.8mm (99%) 1944-1953: 914.6mm (99%) 1954-1963: 931.6mm (101%) 1964-1973: 910.1mm (99%) 1974-1983: 929.2mm (101%) 1984-1993: 925.6mm (100%) 1994-2003: 969.2mm (105%) 2004-2013: 956.3mm (104%) 2014-2023: 1012.1mm (110%) Interesting things to point out: The UK has always had a cyclical pattern between dry spells and wet spells, often alternating between them every 3 to 10 years. In the earlier part of the record when temperatures were a lot colder, this pattern still occured but often with the die loaded towards dryer than average conditions. In the 20th century both ends became more extreme with stark contrasts in rainfall between decades; for example, the 1910s-1920s was generally wet, but the 1930s-1940s generally dry, the 1950s and 1960s saw the polarisation increase even more, particularly the 1960s when the first half of the decade was very dry, but the second half exceptionally wet. These polarising extremes reduced into the 1970s, 1980s and into the first half of the 1990s as the wet spells and dry spells became shorter, leading to more of an "average" results. From the late 1990s onwards as temperatures have increased the results are showing the same as the earlier half of the record, but instead of the die loaded towards dry it's now loaded towards wet, which makes sense as warmer air holds more moisture and our climate is dominated by the Atlantic. However, despite the past ten years being anomalously wet, it isn't unprecedented; 1874-1883 had an average of 1017.2mm despite occuring in generally dryer times, which means despite the die being loaded in favour of one outcome, natural variability will still be at play. The moral of the story; we're getting wetter, but don't rule out an anomalously dry period that lasts 5 to 10 years, but err on the side of wet being perhaps the "norm", at least for the forseeable future (next couple of decades; the effects of a moving Hadley Cell and other unknown variables may change this outlook into the latter half of the 20th century, but if our Atlantic remains dominant then expect those storms to be juicer than ever!).
  4. The early hours of September 1st, 2017 brought unexpected but very severe thunderstorms to the south-east of England. Not only was it the intensity that makes them memorable to me but also the fact that (as far as I remember) they were largely unforecast and occured in a cool pattern. Proof you don't need heat to get big storms. After a brief warm spell, the closing days of August 2017 were cool/very cool with a slack NW flow. As high pressure built in from the mid Atlantic, a shallow trough became embedded in the mix and brought instabillity into the 1st. You can see the trough develop and pass into the low countries on the synoptic charts. I remember vividly being at home during the evening listening to music with my headphones in minding my own business when a flash from behind distracted me, only to my surprise there be a vivid lightning show. I checked the radar and a rash of severe thunderstorms were clung onto the south-east. Over the course of a couple hours the storms remained slow moving with torrential rain practically staying in place as storms back-built, dumping copious amounts of rainfall and causing localised flooding (coming after a locally exceptionally wet summer too). Most notably however was that despite it being night I could make out that there seemed to be a tornadic element with the clouds rotating and I did see what looked like a funnel cloud/tornado develop in the sky out my bedroom window, but didn't end up coming to much. It remains one of the most intense thunderstorms I've witnessed along with June 25th, 2016 (unbeaten to this day) and October 23rd (or 24th), 2022. Do you have any memories of these storms? Were they as intense in your area or was it a New Ash Green special?
  5. Sun Chaser My main memories of June 2017 other than the hot spell were just unsettled. The minima was the second highest on record for June behind... 2016. As mentioned, early June was extremely unsettled with gale force winds on the 6th that nearly took out our old shed! After another bog standard hot spell in early July the summer left and never really came back. At least locally, summer 2017 was exceptionally wet with frequent thundery downpours. The frequency of thunderstorms (I lived in NW Kent at the time) between late June and early September, in particularly late July, was quite remarkable. I remember the most intense of downpours on the 23rd. In our old garden we had a beautiful array of flowers and herbs including plenty of lavender and the whole garden was an absolute luscious green. August was mostly cloudy and cool bar the warm end which only got up to about 28-29C. We had torrential thundery rain on August 9th which lasted ages and was one of the wettest days in my records at the time. So my main memory of summer 2017 was often cloudy, cool and wet but with frequent violent thunderstorms, including a surprise thunderstorm on September 1st which I may make a historical thread about.
  6. Isn't our climate mostly unchanged since 20 years ago though? The biggest difference is we didn't have heat spikes then, but many 2000s summers were indifferent to poor with a couple good ones in the mix and the winters were still mostly mild with infrequent snow until a brief window of snowier weather from 2008 to 2013. Even the annual C.E.T. interestingly remained quite static until 2022 and 2023 which we're still waiting to see if it's the new normal or whether it will drop to the 10.2-10.7C window for the next 5-10 years. To me it feels like it's just a slightly warmer and quite wetter version of what we had. I think the 1990s was just a decade in which was natural variation enhanced by climate change for its unusual frequency of better summers which balanced the unusual frequency of poor summers in the 1980s. It will be interesting to see natural variability play out albeit with the elephant in the room a constant driver.
  7. January 2024 really did the heavy lifting for sunshine this past winter. Away from eastern Scotland, unexceptional totals in the other two months lifted it into the above average region for the east but many parts of the country had extensively dull weather even by the 1961-1990 average interestingly.
  8. matty40s Until for most the snow turns to sleet then turns to rain and then the rain will be even heavier and last for even longer of the year! UK seems to be a good example of this.
  9. We think it's bad now but I just read a Met Office Monthly Weather Report for June 1964 that claimed it was the fifteenth successive month that was duller than normal!
  10. WYorksWeather I agree. Hot summers suck. I love any negative anomaly I can get, I don't care what month it comes. I like to know it can still happen. Every year the blue anomalies on maps shrink more and more... There are plenty of summers in the past that people can brush off as bad because of a lower C.E.T. but they were probably pleasant, like 1969. August 1981 was sunny, very dry and often warm but didn't get above 28C all month, but I'd take that over August 1995 any day. Cool doesn't equate bad and warm doesn't equate good, just look at summer 2020 or summer 2004 for example.
  11. I genuinely ignore the CFS and every LRF since I started getting into weather properly since I was 12, it's served me well. If I had to guess for 2024... Going against the grain and going to say we'll have a cool summer, at least for modern times, we'll have an annual maximum around 32C and it'll be considered poor but not horrific, sort of slotting in with the kinds of summers like 2015, 2009, 2002, 1998, 1993, 1981 etc. It probably won't be massively wet though wouldn't rule it out. But I think at least one month will be dry and decently sunny. Overall a mixed bag, rather cool, forgettable.
  12. The winter of 1962/1963 gets deserved praise for its extreme cold but the the following winter set a record in its own right. The winter of 1963/1964 is the driest winter on record going back to 1766 with a seasonal total of a paltry 88.9mm. December 1963 had a C.E.T. of 2.6C and an average of 30.1mm, the driest for 30 years. The month began with low pressure close to the south-west but high pressure quickly built. This period was generally very grey and misty and became gradually colder with freezing fog, though western areas saw some sunshine. Colder mid-month with easterly winds. It remained mostly dry but sleet and snow showers peppered the south-east. A more substantial push of cold air on the 19th brought widespread snow with up to 3 inches of snow from "Aberdeen to Durham". The run-up to Christmas was cold and frosty with lots of winter sunshine and harsh frosts, but the wintry theme wasn't to last for Christmas as winds returned to the west and it remained foggy, particularly in the south-east, with only light falls of rain and mild temperatures and anticyclonic gloom non stop from the 23rd to the 28th. "Rainfall was less than 25 per cent of the average over some east coast areas of Scotland, south-west Scotland, North and West Wales, the Midlands and over parts of Sussex and Kent; many places in these areas had between two and three weeks without measurable rain from the 1st. It was the driest December at Edinburgh since 1908." January 1964 was somewhat milder with a slightly cooler than average C.E.T. of 3.4C; the driest since 1880 with an average of 26.4mm. There wouldn't be a drier one until 1997. The month began with rain restricted to the far north-west. The first ten days of January 1964 were generally very dull with lots of foggy anticyclonic gloom. A slight change as a weak trough moving westwards with cold air aloft gave some snow and sleet in the south and though most places saw feeble amounts, the south coast did surprisingly well. Parts of the south coast saw up to 12 inches of snow with 6 inches covering the South Downs, but amounts were small further north. This quickly thawed but high pressure remained in control with cold but sunny weather. Bright conditions were shortlived as anticyclonic gloom prevailed with the 19th to the 23rd being particularly foggy with unbroken fog for four days in the Yorkshire region. It eventually turned somewhat more unsettled at months end with the 29th and the 31st being the only days with widespread rain. Northern and eastern Scotland as well as parts of northern England were sunny but elsewhere it was very dull. It was the dullest January since 1912 at Worthing. February 1964 was the mildest month of the winter with a slightly mild C.E.T. of 4.5C and an average of 32.4mm. The month began with something out of character; unsettled weather! It began changeable and unsettled with even the south having some heavy rain on the 3rd, but high pressure quickly built it turning it sunny and frosty, though cloud filled in eventually with a return to foggy conditions. It remained generally dry until the 14th when a week of cold weather from the east followed bringing moderate snowfalls to the north of England from the 16th to the 19th. 10 inches lay at Forest in Teesdale and low-ground in the Midlands and north-east generally saw a 1-2 inches and 3-4 inches respectively. As milder air encroached from the south-west on the 22nd parts of south-west England saw about an inch of snow as did eastern Scotland on the 23rd. The month ended mild with outbreaks of rain, fog and even some thunderstorms. Temperatures got up to 15C on the 24th and 27th. Says a lot about our current climate that the driest winter on record had more snowfall than most winters since 1988!
  13. All the more notable for coming after an extremely dry winter, the driest ever recorded in fact. An extremely dry year, though oddly it seems March 1964 was a wet one and was the sole very wet month of the entire year.
  14. WYorksWeather Could be pleasant in the south but that chart while mild doesn't exactly scream walk in the park conditions as those flabby westerlies look like they'd bring a fair bit of cloud and even outbreaks of rain further north.
  15. Summer8906 I've also got the hunch that winter 2024/2025 may be the lucky one for coldies. If we do see a slight reduction of temperatures due to the Hunga vapour dissipating + when we go back to La Nina we may have a bit more luck for winter cold spells in Europe in the 2025-2028 window I feel. Back to spring at hand and this wet spell we're in, if you look back in history at all the wettest years, they are usually followed by a cluster of dry/dryer years. It can happen you can get stuck in a rut of wet weather. I just looked through the data and 1875-1883 was extremely wet with 5 of these years having over 1,000mm and two of them over 1,100mm! The driest of the lot was 1881 which was still wetter than normal at 966mm. Generally though I think we can expect a drier couple of years, perhaps even very dry, but climate change may affect that and I'd expect more average with one dry year than a flip to extreme dryness. Once again back to 2024 and I said for a while that I felt a 1998/2007 spring was on its way and it's somewhat come true so far. If this March ends up warm and wet that'll be somewhat like March 1998 and then I am convinced we'll April and May be contrasting months, one relatively cool (or maybe even below the 1961-1990 average) and one be warm, sunny and dry. I think April 2024 will be the cool and wet one and then we'll see our first properly dry month in May 2024. Similar to how May 2001 broke the deluge.
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