LetItSnow!

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

CryoraptorA303 I disagree about the browning of grass in summer comment too actually. Many summers you can have a slight discolouration. I can recall 2013, 2016 and even August 2020 before the brunt of the unsettled weather. I don't think it's an every year occurence though, but it is common. Grass and mud are quite fickle at surface level. Similar to how mud can become dry and cracked after a dry week or two even if its been unsettled (depending on soil type and area I suppose, but I've definitely seen that).

The 12z of the GFS sees a similar progression albeit in a slightly position. Perhaps a cool, wet and windy end to April on the cards.

While waiting for the 12z to roll out I couldn't help but notice how much of a big deal the GFS 6z made of low pressure around the 27th/28th. Wet and windy the name of the game here and only rather below average temperatures away from where rain may keep the temperatures down more notably. It does seem weaker pressure of some sort will be the dominating feature of late April, but whether it is slack pressure with showers or a return to notably wet and windy weather, it remains to be seen. If it does turn like this then April will go down as a thoroughly wet and dull month. Even this drier spell has seen showers on most days here in London. I'm seriously impressed at how long this wet spell has lasted. No drying out round here!

In yet another series of funny repeating patterns, the Aprils of 1814, 1914 and 2014 have all been well above average for temperature. The way we're going it may be a safe bet to assume April 2114 will be too!

Here's an interesting one, the anti-1740. The real 1740 is by far the coldest year ever recorded. Using the C.E.T. and limited data/reports from this year, here's what its anti may look like. I imagine a year in the 2020s or 2030s could read like this, so it's written in the style of that rather than as "anti-1740". The C.E.T.s are not calculated by the opposite anomaly but by each months relative ranking in the C.E.T. Jan 7.1 Feb 7.3 Mar 6.8 Apr 9.7 May 13.9 Jun 16.0 Jul 16.5 Aug 16.7 Sep 12.8 Oct 14.3 Nov 9.2 Dec 6.0 - 11.36C This winter was extremely mild. It included a notably mild January and February, both of which were in the 'top-5' of coldest such-named months. Using the CET series, both January and February averaged above 7.0C, the only time this has ever occured. An exceptionally severe south-westerly gale on the 11th of January accomapnied by remarkably mild temperatures in the mid-teens. London saw its most damaging windstorm since 1703. Much of southern England was completely frost free during both January and February. A notably wet January across England & Wales. Heavy rainfall over the winter culminated in severe flooding in March. Following a warm winter, a notably warm spring. Temperatures on the 16th of May rose to 32C in London, breaking the record for the earliest 90F ever recorded. A very warm June followed. After a period of unexceptional temperatures from July to September the anomalous warmth returned in October, breaking the record for warmest such-named month by over 1C. Unusually warm from the 9th to the 12th of October with temperatures into the upper 20s. Alternatively, the C.E.Ts relative to their rankings at the time instead of all time. Jan 7.5 Feb 8.5 Mar 7.9 Apr 10.5 May 13.8 Jun 17.0 Jul 18.0 Aug 18.0 Sep 11.5 Oct 14.3 Nov 8.6 Dec 7.3 - 11.91C

Metwatch Interesting that it's turning into another month with the brunt of the warm anomalies in England, especially the south. Considering the month is only slightly above average in Scotland, will this colder second half lead to just an average month for temperature in Scotland? Granted the anomalies are against the 1991-2020 averages, so no - but for the current era maybe. Only at the 19th and a large swathe of northern England and southern Scotland are exceptionally above normal for rainfall. Granted its only the 19th but sunshine tracking to be pretty dismal everywhere. Absolutely no surprise given the south-westerlies that dominated the first half.

jamesthemonkeh Dare I say that looks a tad unstable, showery at least, with strong April sunshine and slack pressure. Could be a few rumbles with that.

Metwatch Back in the days when weather used to be real weather!

summer blizzard 1818 seems to have a blistering June-July pairing with a CET of 16.4 and 18.2 respectively. August 1818 didn’t wanna play ball though at 15.3C. Extremely dry summer though oddly despite August being the coolest month it was the driest with a paltry 20mm on the EWP series. I imagine 1818 must’ve been very blocked, a very meridional type pattern that aligned well for UK heat at first but then changed to lots of cool but dry weather later. I imagine if it had existed, the synoptic charts would have a lot of HP over and to our west. 2001 a much more straightforward British summer type fare and one I’d be fine with.

May 2018 was for the true summer lovers as it had the warmth and sunniness as well as explosive convection. May 2020 was more for the nature walk type who just enjoy bright and comfortable weather. I preferred May 2020 as it seemed far sunnier and pleasant and had some interesting synoptic variation, though the storms of late May 2018 were awe inspiring.

There is no direct correlation between the weather in spring and the following summer, but there are many examples of years that had “dismal” springs that had nice summers after then. At a browse I can see: 2013, 1996, 1983, 1975, 1969 *Edit 1969 is an interesting summer, definitely forgotten. Not an all time classic but it seems to have been very pleasant. June 1969 was very sunny and apparently the sunniest on record in London at the time, though temperatures were a little below average due to some cool nights. July 1969 seems to have been a month punctuated by two extremely wet spells early and late but warm and dry during the middle third with the temperature up to 32C on the 22nd. Very dry in Scotland and dry overall except where the rains came on the 6th and then the 28th/29th, the latter of which seems to have been ferociously thundery. August 1969 seemed to have a bit of a NW/SE split, very dry in the NW but wet and dull in the extreme east but for most quite good. For the 1960s standards it would have been gorgeous. I’d take it over 2022 any day.

I thought this video was great. It may not be perfect but we’re making more progress than I thought we were. I do believe it’s possible we could avoid the very worst. Also seemed to dispel the emissions myth.

Metwatch The definition of spring-like is iffy in this country when you can have such Aprils such and 2011 and 2012 contrasting eachother. But what I meant, and maybe ir was not the best word to use, but that early flowering and budding and such remarkably persistent mildness meant that the month felt like a particularly gnarly spell of weather in late March or April. The mildness combined with the local exceptionally early budding and flowering meant that to me it was spring-like, but not everyone has the same definition.

Sun Chaser Just not with the July 2023 bit tacked on after?