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Norway Nut

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Austevoll Kommune North of 60 deg N
  • Interests
    fishing and model trains.
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold with a metre of lying snow

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  1. It wasn't easy moving to Norway like what I did but I was fed up with the constant hunt for snow in the winter time. Okay, I live in the most snowless location in Norway but I still enjoy a winter that stretches from end of October til about the end of March/ beginning of April. How long does your winter last? As a result of the move I'm living in a detatched 3/4 bedroomed, 2 lounges, 2 baths( without baths), double garaged property with car and boat. I doubt I would be living in such splendour in the UK!
  2. Isn't life grand? Here are some life events that I use to measure the passage of time ; the first cuckoo of spring, the first roar of a chainsaw as Norwegians start to cut down next winter's wood and the first one - the chorus of posters on Netweather saying "Winter's over". I really don't understand some folks attitude to winter in the UK. Surely they don't expect a "once in 30 years" event to happen every year? If so, perhaps they need to move to somewhere where it's the climatic norm. End of...
  3. That's fine for me here in Norway! Still outside the reliable (T72) but one lives in hope.
  4. I'm confused ( that's easy I hear you say). I was taught that if there were three major ice sheets then it was an ice age and we are living in an interglacial that's due to end shortly. We've been in the current ice age for the last 2.4 million years give or take. Little Ice Ages, as the paper points out, are little blips on the way. Has the definition of an ice age changed whilst I wasn't looking?
  5. I'm sorry in advance if I upset anyone on this thread but I've just about have had enough of the constant moans and bickering in the MOD thread. There seems to be 3 groups of people in that thread who are very active. First group, mild rampers who latch onto any whiff of zonal activity and take great joy in parading their doomsday reading of the models under the noses of the other groups. Second group, cold fanactics - very similar in action to the first group but for cold instead of mild. Third group, donkeys out of "Winnie the Pooh". These are the most pathetic of the groups. Unless the models are showing 40 day blizzards then everything is just pants. What I say to these folk? Move to Siberia, you'll get your wish to come true there. There are only a few posters in that thread that try to be as objecttive as possible and even fewer that offer up opinions on what the models will show next. They know they are. There's only a handful that actually try to forecast the weather, the rest just interpret the models' outputs. One last thing. What's the fascination in looking for the breakdown of a cold/hot spell of weather before that spell of weather has even begun? I'd appreciate an answer to that one as it really makes no sense to me.
  6. Umm, I heard it was a good match for, I think, Solar cycle 12 or 6 or even 5. "In terms of overall solar cycles we continue to trend very closely to the weaker soar cycles of 5, 6, 12, 14 and 16. Out of all these cycles SC12 has and remains the closest to SC24." http://www.gavsweathervids.com/sc24-25.html
  7. He represented the anti-establishment in the vote as did the leave campaign in Britain. Folks will stand for so much before something gives. In the USA case it was the aptly named "rust belt" that did for Hilary.
  8. Remember reading a book in mid 80's that quite specifically said when the sunspot numbers go above 150 ( this is the old method of counting sunspots) or go below 50, then cold winters generally dominate. Does this help your analysis? The books title was "Future Weather" but I can't remember the author.
  9. You must have been a mathematician in a previous life Roger, I was a radio/radar engineer and wannabe radio ham. Sunspot cycles start and finish on specific dates. The peaks, double peaks or plateau generally do not align to the absolute centre of the sunspot cycle. So you already know that sunspots vary on an 11 year cycle very roughly speaking. I forget the actual range over which the basic 11 year cycle fluctuates but believe me it does. Next in frequency comes the 22 year Solar Polarity change. This is just the Sun flipping the North seeking pole for the South seeking pole and vice versa, so one could argue that the time it takes for the Sun to be in one orientation i.e. North Pole "up" and sunspots at a minimum until the next time is in the same configuration is the true length of the Solar cycle. This may or may not have an effect on your calculations. Be aware also that one cycle can start while the previous cycle is still ongoing ( the Sun produces sunspots with opposite polarity around the time of the start of every second cycle) but we are just given one number. By the way, there are also longer time scale cycles in operation. There is a 79 or 80 year cycle of low sunspot peaks, a 100 or 101 year cycle of high sunspot peaks and this forms a 179/180 year cycle ( one cycle of low peaks followed by a high peak cycle). I think the scientists have recently reported that there might be a 360/400 year cycle too. Happy Correlating!
  10. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html This shows ( hopefully!) that the strat temp is not following the normal path of returning to a less negative temp. if you click on southern hemisphere, you will notice that the southern strat temp hasn't yet started to decline to its winter temp. To me, this suggests that the northern BDC has stopped and all the ozone is being transported south to Antarctica. My question to you learned folk is - What is the ramifications if the strat temps stay as they are for the next 10 months or so ( as if they will) ?
  11. So Mr Booker made it all up? Can you believe anything written in the papers?
  12. Personally, I would like to see the model threads more split up along the lines of Pre T120 and post T120. The reason for this? I'm sick and tired of trawling through competing posts saying "oh My God, what a snow fest!" and "put on the suntan lotion". - only to find that the charts they are looking at are for D20+! Up to 5 days out there's an 80% chance of the model verifing ( mind you, I find some models don't verify at T0). The real amateur forecaster will try and correct for the 20% error whereas the "Chart readers" will ... Post T120, the verification rates drop alarmingly to about 20% at T240, then it just seems a competition to see who spots the "trend". Really, am I interested who "spots" the trend first? or that the present cold snap is shown to fade away after D40, when it hasn't really got going yet? NO! Anyway, when it comes to "if", "when" or "where will it snow" or even "how much is it going to snow" then you're talking about a 24 hour window at max not 240 hours!
  13. As I live on the west coast of Norway, anybody finding themselves nearby is welcomed to stop by for a cuppa before being sent back to Scotland or Shetland. Sustained speeds of 70+mph forecast with gusts exceeding 100+mph from roughly the north-western quadrant are expected. Oh yeah, high water will be exceptionally high too - possible flooding of moorings!
  14. Big day for Longyearbyen today! Once the Sun goes down they don't get to see it for 4 months ( I hope there aren't any vampires there now!). My day length has shortened from 19+ hours at midsummer to 9+ hours at the moment and this is due to go down further to about 6 hours ( or less) at midwinter ( I live just south of Bergen). This is the worst time of year for this location as heavy Atlantic storms make the sunrise and sunset times a bit irrelevant due to the cloud cover. I look forward to the snow because the Sun reflects nicely off the snow and can actually give one a slight tan. Roll on November/December.
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