Stu_London

Sadly - no sign of a pattern change in the latest suites. Problem with MLB and a strong vortex is that it can only really hang around (January) or sink (February), leaving us to pick up the scraps from occasional polar maritime incursions. It's not quite game over yet, but increasingly likely that large swathes of the country, particular midlands southwards will see the winter months with no lying snow and in a lot of cases, no falling snow.

Based on this winter's model watching so far, I suspect 'downgrade fatigue' has set in. Besides while it's quite an impressive polar blast, it a toppler ultimately

For me, a bog-standard north westerly in winter will often bring in uppers of -5C to -7C, maybe a touch lower briefly. However this set up looks a bit colder than this and some of the ensembles are significantly colder, so potentially an interesting set up, albeit a long way from verifying at present.

Looks like the model output discussion has sprung back into life spurred on by some improvements (from a cold perspective) to this morning's model output. Still all in FI and the nature of cold zonality is that favoured spots tend to do well, whereas a lot areas do not either because they are too sheltered or more likely to the south, some marginality creeps in. I, for one, will welcome the change from anticyclonic gloom that seems to have gone for ever.

Doesn't look like we are any nearer to anything noteworthy in the modelling (i include, cold, mild, exceptionally windy or wet in that). Not a bad FI from the pub run operational again but even that manages to surround the UK with cold without really giving us a cold spell and is way to far out to look at specifics in any event. A favourable pattern change does seem as far away as ever tonight.

Best FI from an operational run for a few days for cold hunting. Plenty of cold ensembles also as we go into February. Thermally, mid winter is the last week of January and the first few days of February, so there is still plenty up for grabs despite the rather moribund output we have been subject to for most of the month. Expect lots of chopping and changing with the output in the next few days - but if we are to get a cold spell in the first half of February, this week will probably be the one to spot the trend, if not the detail.

Plenty of very cold ensembles - fully expect to get some stellar winter charts in FI in the next 3-4 GFS runs. Probably won't come close to verifying, but will electrify 'the hunt for cold'

Looks like those heading towards -15C would have an easterly component to them - northerlies never get the -15C line down that far south.

Feb/March 2018 was more severe than anything that 2012-3 threw up (although I accept that March 2013 was pretty exceptional, probably not far off Dec 2010, in terms of being noteworthy) Also last year was colder than average and away from the south there were multiple snow events with perhaps 20+ days of snow lying in some areas. In terms of the current situation, I fully expected the GFS to run away from the cold theme in FI. I would say there is a 50% chance of it bringing it back in the next 2-3 days. Whether it then verifies is by no means certain, however one thing that I have noted is that there is far more cross model harmony in the period up to 96-120 hours than there was with the failed Christmas hunt for cold, which I think gives a better chance of day 7/8/9 charts being somewhere near verification than if this were not the case.

Don't be surprised if the GFS completely drops a cold FI in the next few runs, only to reintroduce the idea at a shorter timeframe possible day 8/9. Seen it many time before. And even this does happen, there will be no guarantee that anything notable will come to pass. At that range the number of variables that may or may not scupper such a spell remains an astronomical number. The only thing that is fairly certain is that model watching over the next week or so will be more interesting (and stressful, for those that never learn) than it has been over the last week or so.

Until its a in a nearer time frame and we begin to get some cross model and stronger ensemble agreement then any pattern change remains in the realm of possible rather than probable at present. However there are enough ensembles to back up the 12z and 18z operational runs to monitor the situation without getting too excited at this stage. A minus 5C 850hpa at +384 hours is rather notable in itself.

Iconic TV forecaster from my childhood. Enjoyed chasing tornadoes with you a few years back too. Best wishes for a long and well earned retirement.

I'd have to back rain/sleet for the far south - away from the highest elevations.

In no particular order. August 2003 - Hot hot hot. October 1987 - Great Storm January 2004 - Thundersnow from squall front - countrywide event December 2010 - the whole month - doubt I will see another sustained cold spell like this. January 1987 - Just a cold snap in terms of longevity - but a one in 200 year one.

I would say that is it quite a rare thing to see these days. The form horse for an easterly is often wedge of heights toppling over from Iceland area. After that I would say a displaced Siberian High Then perhaps heights retrogressing to the north east. The rarest being an arctic high dropping down over Scandinavia

Looks like anyone looking for cold is feeding off model scraps (i.e. northerly topplers) for a short while. A few signs in FI that the mobility might start to slow down and some more robust blocking starting to appear (none exactly where we want it just yet), so it is probably a case of get through the next 7-10 days and then see where we are. Anyone writing off winter, or indeed January, might be a tad premature for now.

Tuesday's hopes as expected receding. The problem was that 00z and 06z GFS op and some of the lesser models were very much a goldilocks scenario in that any adjustment would lead to a downgrade or a complete evaporation of the event, which we are possibly seeing. Getting cold air down quick enough to engage with moisture from the south as was shown, is an extremely rare event. I can count on one hand how many times that sort of set up has delivered a widespread lowland event in my lifetime (and I probably still have some fingers left over). However, after this, some pretty cold zonality which could throw up a few surprises - prone areas probably doing best. And then possibly the next hunt for cold. Enough ensembles (and ECM op) showing some high rises just to the north west in around 6-7 days, which cold then topple over to scandi and create some interest. So not all doom and gloom for coldies.

Away from the top elevations, I am not buying. Whenever we have a marginal situation like this the models tease - a sleetfest at best for most.

happy new year looks like a quite +NAO start to 2022, some brief incursions from a northerly quadrant might pique a bit of interest here and there, but in all honesty, no signs of a sustained cold pattern for the moment.

Perhaps we should start a petition to get September removed from the calendar. Only needs 100,000 and then it would have to be debated in parliament.

I would echo the thoughts of some others in that it would be nice for the sun to make a bit of an appearance at some point. Does look like that might be the case if the transient northerly comes off, which will also bring temps back down to something more like January than May.

It is always a shame when a potential cold spell collapses as the thrill of the chase is undoubtedly fun.

The problem was it wasn't nearly nailed-on. There was huge disagreements across models and something like a 15C spread on 850s at about 4-5 days range. Whenever there is that much uncertainty nothing is nailed on. Reading the model outlook discussion thread, you could have been mistaken for thinking it was nailed on, as there was a lot of excitement and cherry picking of charts to suit the narrative of a prolonged cold event. This isn't a criticism of the forum or any specific members. As long as there is such overwhelming bias in terms of people seeking a particular type of weather, it will always be difficult to filter posts that are objective or have a confirmation bias towards the particular type of weather they are seeking out.

Amazing how much 'groupthink' one measly weather related internet forum can create. I would echo what others have said about cross model and ensemble agreement - whilst they do not exist there is uncertainty, and where there is uncertainty on most occasions our shores will end up on the other side of what most in this thread are looking for. Will the forum learn collectively from this experience? You would hope so, but past experiences suggests not.

Haven't been on for a couple of days, but barring a comeback of epic proportions, the writing is on the wall for the vast majority of the population for Christmas day itself. Beyond this there is still loads of uncertainty and the NH profile certainly isnt screaming a prolonged outbreak of TM orientated conditions.