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Stu_London

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    Orpington, Kent

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  1. Thank for the review - a good read. I think we have to accept that in a temperate maritime climate such as ours, the form horse will always be the least extreme option on the table (the form horse doesn't always win, but statisically is most likely). The notable thing for me this winter was how badly at times the main global forecast models performed. I began model watching over 20 years ago and as winter output goes, this has been one of the worst performing I have seen. I'm struggling to see how they have improved that much in terms of accuracy over 20 years. Perhaps this year the SSW threw them and they are maybe playing catch up with emergent patterns resulting from changes to climate and sea ice, but in an age when technological advances are accelerating as quickly as they are, I'm slightly disappointed that global forecasting models have not really progressed in terms of cracking the 96-168 hour period. I firmly believe that severe spells in winter will still occur in future and with a climate as complicated as ours, things are sure to fall right for us again sometime, although as the author of this thread notes, the dice might be loaded slightly more against us than has been historically. We can console ourselves that the last decade has produced two and a half months (Dec 10, Mar 13, Mar 18 H1) of severe winter weather that would be notable in any historical era, so it stands to reason that this will reoccur sometime in the future.
  2. 18z offers an FI that would be anything but mild. Not exceptional cold and nothing that would offer anything but a transient cold snap but it better than previous output and whilst close to 0% chance of verifying, does show that there are other options than just mild zonal type set ups. Notable that recent output blast the jet through into western Russia, so we can probably forget the siberian high coming into play (which would be fairly rare anyway) so any easterly would need to come from a toppling Greenland high or a wedge of heights establishing itself from the north. The 18z operational wouldn't need to evolve that differently for either scenario to come into play. For those bemoaning this winter, I have witnessed 3 separate (albeit minor and non-disruptive) snow events this week which is about the same as I witnessed between when I moved to the south east in 1992 to about 2002.
  3. At 16 days out that could be a lot worse. Cold pool to the northeast in place. Dig the trough a bit further south west - ridge the high further north - get rid of that monstrosity to our west and hey - it a chart full of potential
  4. I do think we will get some sort of attack from the East, but probably not until week 3/4 of February or maybe early March. Not sure if it will be sustained or how severe it will be and a spell that late has to overcome higher solar influence - but I still think it might deliver for some.
  5. 6z as bad as it can get for cold hunters. +144 is for fun only, but some of the building blocks within the next few days that were there previously are being eroded.
  6. Something to keep an eye on Front meets lp cell in the channel now meets streamer later could be interesting.
  7. main ppn band seems to be moving in a due northerly direction now
  8. In my experience easterlies are marginally more likely to happen if the op leads the other members, rather than the other way round (i.e. ensemble support without the op until later) Both scenarios have a reasonably fair chance of failing so lots more runs needed, however a positive shift towards an easterly today.
  9. Haha I was going to ask about the seagulls a few days ago. Good to see they are in position.
  10. Hopeful with around 100m elevation and being quite far east, that Orpington will do ok - probably more so the Cheslfield end which goes up to more like 150m.
  11. The ICON is like one of those annoying people on the Motorway that keep changing lanes hoping to gain a car length or two when there is heavy traffic.
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