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Stu_London

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Stu_London last won the day on February 15 2011

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    Tunbridge Wells, Kent

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  1. Agree 24 did take longer time wise to get going and although a weak cycle, generally speaking once it was up and running there were very few spotless days 25 is starting to feel like we are at that point - so I am not expecting many more spotless days - but I could be wrong
  2. Less than 10 - last minimum feel away very quickly and I think this will also
  3. Don't have the technical knowledge of Steve, but experience of model watching over 2 decades leads me to the same conclusion. As soon as the Icelandic low gets established and starts spinning secondary systems, it is a sure sign the the Western hemisphere PV is in rude health and not likely to go anywhere soon. Add to that no sign of lowering of heights in the med and it becomes a bit of a stuck pattern. Nov/Dec 2010 archives are often used as examples and to a degree are the holy grail. But one must remember that 2010 would probably rank as a 1 in 20 year event in the pre-wa
  4. I'm seriously thinking of packing my things and moving to FI - the weather seems great there. Does anyone know what the cost of living is there? In all seriousness, for coldies, it all comes down to the fact that for our maritime climate, there are many, many more paths to mild or not cold, than there are to cold and snow - so it stands to reason that cold/snowy will always be the outsider. The 06z op looks pretty flat again compared to recent output, however I wouldn't be surprised to see some more blocked scenarios crop again in the 252-300 hour range in the next day or so a
  5. Using the Space Weather methodology the solar min is now 801 spotless days - which is the same as the amount of spotless days in the last minimum. Be interesting to see how strong SC25 is as this will give pointers as to whether this this is just 2 consecutive deep minimums, or the start of a more significant grand minimum.
  6. It would be a remarkable minimum if there are anywhere near that amount of spotless days in 2020. It would exceed the number of spotless days in the last minimum (which was the deepest in almost 100 years) and by spring 2021 would be pushing towards the all time records in the late 19th and early 20th century, when it is likely that less sophisticated methods of measurement meant that there were many days recorded as spotless that wouldn't be in this day and age. Personally, I think we will see an uptick in activity in the second half of the year with far less spotless days. If I had to g
  7. Tomorrow likely to the 600th spotless day of the minimum. Still a way to go to beat the 801 days from SC23/24 transition, but not completely out of the question given how few sunspots have been on offer during the second half of this year.
  8. Thank for the review - a good read. I think we have to accept that in a temperate maritime climate such as ours, the form horse will always be the least extreme option on the table (the form horse doesn't always win, but statisically is most likely). The notable thing for me this winter was how badly at times the main global forecast models performed. I began model watching over 20 years ago and as winter output goes, this has been one of the worst performing I have seen. I'm struggling to see how they have improved that much in terms of accuracy over 20 years. Perhaps this year the
  9. 18z offers an FI that would be anything but mild. Not exceptional cold and nothing that would offer anything but a transient cold snap but it better than previous output and whilst close to 0% chance of verifying, does show that there are other options than just mild zonal type set ups. Notable that recent output blast the jet through into western Russia, so we can probably forget the siberian high coming into play (which would be fairly rare anyway) so any easterly would need to come from a toppling Greenland high or a wedge of heights establishing itself from the north. The 18z op
  10. At 16 days out that could be a lot worse. Cold pool to the northeast in place. Dig the trough a bit further south west - ridge the high further north - get rid of that monstrosity to our west and hey - it a chart full of potential ?
  11. I do think we will get some sort of attack from the East, but probably not until week 3/4 of February or maybe early March. Not sure if it will be sustained or how severe it will be and a spell that late has to overcome higher solar influence - but I still think it might deliver for some.
  12. 6z as bad as it can get for cold hunters. +144 is for fun only, but some of the building blocks within the next few days that were there previously are being eroded.
  13. Something to keep an eye on Front meets lp cell in the channel now meets streamer later could be interesting.
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