Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Stu_London

Members
  • Posts

    3,910
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Stu_London last won the day on February 15 2011

Stu_London had the most liked content!

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Recent Profile Visitors

7,595 profile views

Stu_London's Achievements

Rising Star

Rising Star (9/14)

  • Dedicated
  • Week One Done
  • One Month Later
  • Five years in
  • Ten years in

Recent Badges

1.6k

Reputation

  1. Sadly - no sign of a pattern change in the latest suites. Problem with MLB and a strong vortex is that it can only really hang around (January) or sink (February), leaving us to pick up the scraps from occasional polar maritime incursions. It's not quite game over yet, but increasingly likely that large swathes of the country, particular midlands southwards will see the winter months with no lying snow and in a lot of cases, no falling snow.
  2. Based on this winter's model watching so far, I suspect 'downgrade fatigue' has set in. Besides while it's quite an impressive polar blast, it a toppler ultimately
  3. For me, a bog-standard north westerly in winter will often bring in uppers of -5C to -7C, maybe a touch lower briefly. However this set up looks a bit colder than this and some of the ensembles are significantly colder, so potentially an interesting set up, albeit a long way from verifying at present.
  4. Looks like the model output discussion has sprung back into life spurred on by some improvements (from a cold perspective) to this morning's model output. Still all in FI and the nature of cold zonality is that favoured spots tend to do well, whereas a lot areas do not either because they are too sheltered or more likely to the south, some marginality creeps in. I, for one, will welcome the change from anticyclonic gloom that seems to have gone for ever.
  5. Doesn't look like we are any nearer to anything noteworthy in the modelling (i include, cold, mild, exceptionally windy or wet in that). Not a bad FI from the pub run operational again but even that manages to surround the UK with cold without really giving us a cold spell and is way to far out to look at specifics in any event. A favourable pattern change does seem as far away as ever tonight.
  6. Best FI from an operational run for a few days for cold hunting. Plenty of cold ensembles also as we go into February. Thermally, mid winter is the last week of January and the first few days of February, so there is still plenty up for grabs despite the rather moribund output we have been subject to for most of the month. Expect lots of chopping and changing with the output in the next few days - but if we are to get a cold spell in the first half of February, this week will probably be the one to spot the trend, if not the detail.
  7. Plenty of very cold ensembles - fully expect to get some stellar winter charts in FI in the next 3-4 GFS runs. Probably won't come close to verifying, but will electrify 'the hunt for cold'
  8. Looks like those heading towards -15C would have an easterly component to them - northerlies never get the -15C line down that far south.
  9. Feb/March 2018 was more severe than anything that 2012-3 threw up (although I accept that March 2013 was pretty exceptional, probably not far off Dec 2010, in terms of being noteworthy) Also last year was colder than average and away from the south there were multiple snow events with perhaps 20+ days of snow lying in some areas. In terms of the current situation, I fully expected the GFS to run away from the cold theme in FI. I would say there is a 50% chance of it bringing it back in the next 2-3 days. Whether it then verifies is by no means certain, however one thing that I have noted is that there is far more cross model harmony in the period up to 96-120 hours than there was with the failed Christmas hunt for cold, which I think gives a better chance of day 7/8/9 charts being somewhere near verification than if this were not the case.
  10. Don't be surprised if the GFS completely drops a cold FI in the next few runs, only to reintroduce the idea at a shorter timeframe possible day 8/9. Seen it many time before. And even this does happen, there will be no guarantee that anything notable will come to pass. At that range the number of variables that may or may not scupper such a spell remains an astronomical number. The only thing that is fairly certain is that model watching over the next week or so will be more interesting (and stressful, for those that never learn) than it has been over the last week or so.
  11. Until its a in a nearer time frame and we begin to get some cross model and stronger ensemble agreement then any pattern change remains in the realm of possible rather than probable at present. However there are enough ensembles to back up the 12z and 18z operational runs to monitor the situation without getting too excited at this stage. A minus 5C 850hpa at +384 hours is rather notable in itself.
  12. Iconic TV forecaster from my childhood. Enjoyed chasing tornadoes with you a few years back too. Best wishes for a long and well earned retirement.
  13. I'd have to back rain/sleet for the far south - away from the highest elevations.
  14. In no particular order. August 2003 - Hot hot hot. October 1987 - Great Storm January 2004 - Thundersnow from squall front - countrywide event December 2010 - the whole month - doubt I will see another sustained cold spell like this. January 1987 - Just a cold snap in terms of longevity - but a one in 200 year one.
  15. I would say that is it quite a rare thing to see these days. The form horse for an easterly is often wedge of heights toppling over from Iceland area. After that I would say a displaced Siberian High Then perhaps heights retrogressing to the north east. The rarest being an arctic high dropping down over Scandinavia
×
×
  • Create New...