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    Portrush. (NI) UK

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  1. CWB to curve up to Greenland and back towards the eastern US. The lack of TPV and energy contained inside the wave break on the UKMO 168z. HP may not hold for long over Greenland but cold air down through the UK and retrogression of HP towards Scandi a likely outcome.
  2. Charts are showing Canadian warming event. The SPV is being dominated by wave 1 and inside the original Rossby wave process the model believes that it contained a considerable amount of energy. During solar minimum the Stratopause is lower in altitude (Electromagnetic compression) and these waves traverse well beyond the 1 hPa level, which allows the SPV to be dominated. How? Current Scandinavian HP and Aleutian LP at 500 mb level are holding position long enough to allow Rossby wave/s to progress and create this event. Personally I believe we will see a reversal at 10 hPa.
  3. Step by step, we are watching the huge tropospheric process developing and it takes time. All began last week in the Pacific which now leads to the creation of Scandinavian HP and Aleutian LP. This process is running later than the GFS predicted. Beginning of December/ tail end of November is the current prediction. This is is how a wave one enters the stratosphere and disrupts the TPV and eventually displaces the SPV. Pacific is ready to repeat this process but this time it will be during winter proper hence why many are the end of December and beginning of January f
  4. Excellent observations from Nick F. In hindsight we all see that the El Niño in conjunction with the WQBO has me believing that any periods of UK snowfall this winter, was quite an achievement. A momumental achievement against those two major forces. Long range models picked up the signal for blocking, although they predicted them to be higher up latitude wise. They were in effect correct just not on the exact positions of the HP cells. ( Very rare to see such long periods of HP dominating UK pattern/not to be confused with a Bartlett pattern) In my opinion that does not con
  5. In short form, this cold spell will have significant longevity. It’s the cause of upcoming -AO, cold air cannot return back into Arctic region and so remain in the mid latatudes I.e UK
  6. Yesterdays data already has shown the ability for high pressure to oscillate between Scandinavia and Greenland regions. I’m intrigued.
  7. I don’t expect to see a QTR until wave 2 develops. SSW/wave 1 is not enough, had I not observed wave 2 then I wouldn’t have been confident of a UK cold spell. 7-10 minimum to see true evolution of Stratospheric influences.
  8. No not at all. Trop lead with EAMT event that sends energy up(20-22nd Dec) Downwelling following reversal from approx 23-24th Dec to oust the upper PV. Then Trop lead again 24th-26th into pole.
  9. GFS is now showing effects currently. SSW displaces PV which allows Pacific WAA up into pole for negative AO.
  10. March 2018, the ECM failed to factor the effects of SSW and was late to portray the correct displacement effects down to the tropospheric level. Whereas the GFS had the right overall idea but failed with the correct Synoptics at the Trop level. When the ECM corrected its input (4 days later than GFS) it displayed the correct outcome. At 240z but models are following the same March 2018 resolution in reading SSW effects. SSW equals PV displacement equals Pacific WAA equals -AO. That we know is certain. Strength of SSW (unknown at present). Is it enough to o
  11. Why is the ECMWF not following the GFS? For that you must observe what the ECM is showing for a specific atmospheric geographical region ie is high pressure propagating or does it have opportunity to propagate in the atmosphere above Greenland. ECM’s data (A day behind on FU Berlin site) says no at present. It reaches 144z in line with GFS but from there it cannot accurately follow suit and retains the HP cell to move from Iceland out west of the Uk region. So follow the higher levels above 500hPa to attain where and what direction High pressure can move toward
  12. All factors count, with that in mind it is necessary to look at this event from all levels and not just at the 850 and 500 hPa levels. SSW split the Stratospheric PV. That propagated down and was assisted by wave 2 to dominate the entire atmosphere from surface to upper Stratosphere. That opened the Arctic to HP. Wave 2 prevents the PV from reforming. As the timings draw closer to surface reactions you only have to look at the Upper Tropospheric charts to observe how the Scandi HP can develop and hold position. Observe the 150 hPa. HP
  13. If it transpires with this actual outcome below and with a WAA of this magnitude. You will see the formation of an Omega block on a magnitude not seen since 2010. You’ve got to realise that the more energy that goes up then the stronger the block when it closes off. This would be a very very special event.
  14. Anthony has picked out a composition that results in best -NAO for the Eastern US. March 2013 would have featured had it resulted in a colder outcome for our cousins in the states. Watch the migration of the Euro HP- Travels west over UK, into the Atlantic and up towards Greenland. Gave them a late winter in 2001 with large amounts of snowfall. 2018’s -NAO is to travel NE from the Atlantic towards Scandi and then NW towards Greenland. Synoptics are very different. Outside influencing factors are also different. I believe the US will get their West based -NAO in week
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