[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

She's starting to struggle

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Back for another year. 

Seperation of lows on ECM. Huge difference in 12 hours, regardless of what happens in the rest of the run. 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Lauren said:

It keeps melting when the snow gets lighter so when it picks up again it has to recover. Not really getting anywhere.

Had the same issue in South Wales last week. 

Snowed all day but nothing settled. 

Fingers crossed for you.. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Unreal cold 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

1055hpa over Scandinavia. Must be almost record breaking?

I see your 1055hpa and raise you 5hpa. 

1060hpa over scandi. 

It only gets colder from here, welcome to the ice club. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Locked in. 

No way the Atlantic lows barrel in now. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Icon at 120 is fantastic.

Scandi surface high forming as the cold becomes entrenched. 

Bitterly cold with snow showers packing into the east, frontal systems diving and the possibility of significant snow as they nudge in. 

No wonder why the met aren't sure wether the even colder air will make its way towards us. 

[Model tweets]

Marco stating on twitter we might yet tap into the coldest air...  

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Control much better for longevity.. 

Heights remain high to our north and force the jet stream south. 

Increasingly cold dense air becomes stubborn to shift and frontal systems slide as they engage it. 

 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I wouldn't really worry about the GFS at 168... 

GFS and GEFS were nearly all wrong regarding a low at much shorter timescales. 

00z has a stronger high pressure developing over scandi that keeps any Atlantic fronts on southerly trajectories. 

06z not so much, but less data may prove to be its downfall on a situation like this. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Icon at 120 is stunning. 

Perfect positioning of the low across the East, Midlands and frontal systems making slow inroads from the Atlantic for us out west. 

Win win... 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Choo choo... 

Wow 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

According the gfs i get 30 cms of snow wtf!!!!yeh right!!

If the GFS verified as shown.. 

Parts of South england would get more than that in my opinion. 

There is no way models would be able to pick up the huge snow showers that would be generated. 

Usually as they move in land as well they tend to merge and create frontal bands, the instability would cause thundersnow as well. 

All hypothetical but would be some serious conditions conductive to huge snowfalls. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

that’s counter intuitive IMO 

sometimes it’s easier (and more accurate) to make a broad forecast for two weeks into the future than something in six/seven days 

In normal times I'd tend to agree with you.. 

Models and means will always resort to some kind of climatic norm at that range. 

This time we have had multiple SSW, MJO into high amplitude and I'm still convinced lack of flight data is playing a massive part.

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, Ext EPS mean fairly disappointing - jet too far north allowing heights to build in Europe.  Near term EPS fantastic!

ECM struggling in the 4-5 day range.. 

No point worrying in the 11-15 days... 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I didn't think so much of it at first but surely the issue of flight data is playing a massive part. 

I know it's difficult to forecast snow but the met have been way off on timings, amounts, how far north how far south...

New warnings gone out for Wales today as its already snowing heavily, same for the updates ones for Tuesday. 

Maybe the models are struggling majorly because of the lack of flights? 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

I seriously think the lack of flight data is having a massive issue... 

Met have never been this inaccurate about snow in a winter that I can remember. 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

12 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Met warning for snow just gone out... 

 

Moderate here but ground temps to high.. 

Nothing sticking at the moment. 

Heavy now beginning to stick.. 

Grass, cars so on... 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Met warning for snow just gone out... 

 

Moderate here but ground temps to high.. 

Nothing sticking at the moment. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Mean at 120 

Cleared the low lovely..  

Control also similar. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm 144 not sure what to make of it!!

Poor. Compared to recent runs. 

It dosent look right tho.. The whole pattern across the northern hemipshere moves east aprt from that low. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

9 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Guys, can someone with more knowledge help me please. Can we expect sea-effect-snow from this system for the south coast? I am in Brighton.

Yes. 

With such an unstable flow though I'd expect troughs rather than showers... 

 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

East Anglia, SE, East Coast....cut off communities....stay home message not needed

 

BFTP

Also the run isn't finished.. 

Renewed amplification into Greenland, low pressure dropping from the North. 

Extension of cold locked in. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

COBRA run in FI - T+300 T850 -15C line a stones throw over the N Sea, but surface low developing in the very unstable flow over N Sea prevents it making to east coast. Such a tease ...

Even with the surface low looks like it could make it. 

New area of heights pushing towards Greenland out of newfoundland. 

 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

You can see how hard Europe wants us back.. 

Its changed the weather to make an ice bridge