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ALL ABOARD

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    Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

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  1. Had the same issue in South Wales last week. Snowed all day but nothing settled. Fingers crossed for you..
  2. I see your 1055hpa and raise you 5hpa. 1060hpa over scandi. It only gets colder from here, welcome to the ice club.
  3. Icon at 120 is fantastic. Scandi surface high forming as the cold becomes entrenched. Bitterly cold with snow showers packing into the east, frontal systems diving and the possibility of significant snow as they nudge in. No wonder why the met aren't sure wether the even colder air will make its way towards us.
  4. Marco stating on twitter we might yet tap into the coldest air...
  5. Control much better for longevity.. Heights remain high to our north and force the jet stream south. Increasingly cold dense air becomes stubborn to shift and frontal systems slide as they engage it.
  6. I wouldn't really worry about the GFS at 168... GFS and GEFS were nearly all wrong regarding a low at much shorter timescales. 00z has a stronger high pressure developing over scandi that keeps any Atlantic fronts on southerly trajectories. 06z not so much, but less data may prove to be its downfall on a situation like this.
  7. Icon at 120 is stunning. Perfect positioning of the low across the East, Midlands and frontal systems making slow inroads from the Atlantic for us out west. Win win...
  8. If the GFS verified as shown.. Parts of South england would get more than that in my opinion. There is no way models would be able to pick up the huge snow showers that would be generated. Usually as they move in land as well they tend to merge and create frontal bands, the instability would cause thundersnow as well. All hypothetical but would be some serious conditions conductive to huge snowfalls.
  9. In normal times I'd tend to agree with you.. Models and means will always resort to some kind of climatic norm at that range. This time we have had multiple SSW, MJO into high amplitude and I'm still convinced lack of flight data is playing a massive part.
  10. ECM struggling in the 4-5 day range.. No point worrying in the 11-15 days...
  11. I didn't think so much of it at first but surely the issue of flight data is playing a massive part. I know it's difficult to forecast snow but the met have been way off on timings, amounts, how far north how far south... New warnings gone out for Wales today as its already snowing heavily, same for the updates ones for Tuesday. Maybe the models are struggling majorly because of the lack of flights?
  12. I seriously think the lack of flight data is having a massive issue... Met have never been this inaccurate about snow in a winter that I can remember.
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