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    Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

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  1. GFS para strat charts now going for an initial warming followed up by another warming a few days later see below. Initial warming. Relaxation slightly Renewed burst.
  2. I know we have all the background signals and what not but when was the last time we actually saw a decent run? Feels like an eternity, just half hearted attempts at ridges being bowled away by low pressure constantly. Please weather gods just one chart a day be nice.
  3. Any links would like to watch ? If possible,

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Hope to see something along these lines tomorrow. Fingers crossed. UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019: The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and night-time frosts. Things will then become bitterly cold with wide spread heavy snow and below average temperatures which will lead to the sea around the British isles freezing and allowing frost fairs to be held on the Thames. Communities will become cut off for weeks at times and cities will grind to a halt as grit supplies run low. This theme will continue with temperatures ranging between -10 and -30 for the rest of winter. Just for Feb..

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    That's an upgrade to me. 'Snow showers' is a brave call this far out and they don't mention solely in the north. Slowly slowly catchy monkey... Oops spelling mistake
  6. Icon out to 120 on the 18z. Atlantic stalling, lows becoming shallower, heights building to the north, azores high trying to ridge towards scandi as the low stalls out west. Can we be sure the Atlantic is going to come in at all? What a turn of events if we went from cold and snow to mild and wet to very wet and windy to sliders to the block flexing to no Atlantic at all? Interesting none the less, and probably why every year I find myself back for the chase.
  7. Surely a split wouldn't be to far away if these verfied...
  8. Look at the difference between the GFS at 78 hours 06z and 72 hours on the 12z the difference in westward correction and also WAA is undeniable.
  9. As Steve has mentioned above, the thing that is most notable for me on the 18z so far is the continued increase in heights across scandi. 20mb higher in a 6 hour run. Substantial.
  10. First time the GFS para has gone for it like this so far Toasty.