During mid December, I attended an emergency planning meeting at my work and the contingency planners were pretty confident of a cold January and February. So much so, the local authority ordered 25% more rock salt. However, at the same meeting today, they were much less bullish than before Christmas. The *risk* is there on the longer term models, but they are now less confident of a very cold February and said it may just turn out to be pretty standard winter weather.