danthetan

Temp 8c sunny & very still here in Pembrokeshire.

Temp 8.0 C raining since 8am yesterday here, still raining pretty heavy again now. 50mm accumulation yesterday before bed and 19mm today with no signs of it stopping for next few hours.

I think the Ensembles will be interesting tonight with that low pressure moving up from the SW at 144 that track is no where near decided and could stay further south and with cold air lurking to the north could be one to watch.

This mornings runs offer a slight glimmer of hope that the high pressure might position itself at least so we can get a continental feed of air nothing cold but at least clear and frosty. I was always suspicious of the eastward advancement and strength of the trough in the mid Atlantic, were now seeing it back westwards. Can it continue? we will have to wait.

ECM continues where it left off last night deep trough in the mid Atlantic in the 8-10 day range high ridging north through the uk towards Scandinavia. Notice the energy spilling over the top of the block down into Russia and underneath, this helping to keep the block in situ and riding north.

Looking at tonights ECM and EPS if* thats where we are heading in the 8-10 day range and beyond, I would imagine the ridge over the uk/Europe would have more of a chance to ridge north as the trough in the mid Atlantic digs quite a way south.

Yes the way i read the ECM that low swings up from the SW keeping midlands north on the northern edge exactly like the chart you attached.

Temp has dropped further and now more snow than sleet but still to wet atm in Haverfordwest

2c in Haverfordwest and still sleet with the odd flake mixed in to wet atm. Temps are falling though just need heavier precipitation.

met office are issuing warnings relative to severity tomorrow after tonight.

I think it would be a fair assessment given the lack of consistancy from the models over the past week that anything past the 96hr Mark is subject to change possibly even before that. Coupled with that the -ve strat winds are forecast to hit the deck somewhere round the start of February adding to even more model volatility so expect more ups and downs. I think it's fascinating seeing how this all plays out and even after 15 years of model watching I'm still learning new things every from different weather setups. My advise would be to not look past 72hr to keep the sanity.

Just looking through the Euro4 expected conditions for the early hours of tomorrow morning they look good for the pembrokeshire dangler to setup showers would be snow above 200m possibly below .

If only I could bring back some of this snow and dump it on the uk

On this morning GFS and ECM there seems to be an appetite for a wedge of high pressure in the N Atlantic to steer the jet and those shallow low pressure systems further south of the UK. one to watch as cold air is lurking to the North and could get wrapped around the low giving snowfall events.

The the d-j-f MSLP anomaly was skewed by a - ve NAO later in January and February apparently. quote ian fergusson.

Are you ok.?

Big swings in the Det is part and parcel of this unusual pattern. I personally love it when the models go into this phase as anything is on the table it’s pot luck like nature is taking back control.

So is the +10c so its anyones guess at that range. As always in these setup's I'm looking no further than 120hr and don't get sucked into these wild swings 6+ days out this pattern throws up.

I don't agree with this too early in the season talk, I will take the synoptics being modelled currently all day long. I get that deep cold is hard to achieve at this time of the year but getting early cold can cool the landmass and SST's which all helps further down the line. Also if you can get a reload the cold air is already in situ.

Snowing & settling in pembs @ 250M +

yes no problem sticking below freezing here.

snowing here flakes were bigger than the radar suggested but fragmenting now so small flakes again.

Never thought we would get showers out of this set up being in the western extremes but that shower stream coming all the way from the east coast through the midlands has just left us with a nice covering. Hopefully more organised stuff tomorrow.

If you haven't got felt on your roof my suggestion is go up the attic tomorrow and have a look for snow one fella in the village in 82 said instead of clearing snow off the pathways he was emptying the loft of snow. By the way we have lighting here now in pembs Im guessing its linked to that red blob heading for us.

Im looking to the east of me whatever falls above my head will end up in Ireland in this wind. Nice to see everyone getting in on the action in south wales currently -2 here slight dusting but getting heavier.