danthetan
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
danthetan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
likes his tantrums this one. -
With the SPV +12m/s westerly ATM is this why the models keep pushing through the Atlantic with a strong jet. With a steep drop off of the SPV imminent perhaps this will help keeping back the Atlantic and disrupt the jet.
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looking at the afternoon temperatures in Ireland they were anywhere between 3 and 5c on the west coast and colder further east. At my location in SW wales its already - 1.5 and dp of -3 I can't help think this front will get shredded by the cold air. I think the best chance of seeing prolonged stuff is as the front pivots. IMBY perspective as the winds turn northerly feeding moisture into the front thats likely to beef up the precipitation thing is then will it be cold enough?
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Travelling back from Birmingham earlier heads of the valleys road by brynmawr was snowing heavy and settling no problem. also seen the hills in pembrokeshire have a covering and was snowing over the higher parts of the A40 roughly 200M. Sunday looks the best shot for south wales on sunday and here just have to hope the front is lively enough.
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This all hinges on enough forcing by the Greenland high south to stop the low pressures heading north getting caught up in the easterly flow and blowing up allowing the azores to ridge north and putting the UK in a SW/W flow. corrections south is crucial here and has been the general direction last few runs.
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Updated UKMO fax charts updated show things marginally further south against GFS 18Z which is crucial here as you can see @65N roughly the flow is heading east. The further south the block in the greenland vicinity will push the low exiting the Newfoundland disrupting it and keeping it in the westerly flow going south of the UK instead of travelling north and hitting the easterly flow and blowing up. in the first few frames of the 18Z you can there is sufficient forcing of the block to disrupt the first low exiting newfoundland sending the low into the base of the trough NE of the UK.
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Morning, its pretty clear from this morning's output how those two low pressure's interact at 96HR is yet to be resolved so pointless looking any further than that. Once thats sorted its where the boundary line sets up between colder air to the north and milder to south with with possible snow on the boundary.
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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
danthetan replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The only good thing about the 18Z ......... It won't be the same tomorrow as usual. -
Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
danthetan replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
have a look at the 2M temperatures -4 @13.00 in parts of wales. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
danthetan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Abergavenny maybe not on the old severn bridge I'm afraid. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
danthetan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think so, if you live wales or SW England at elevation looking really good for snow . SW midlands good chance at low level.