danthetan

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Looking very likely I would say winds NNE N or NNW wet bulb 0c 850hpa temps -9 freezing level 0-100m 520 thicknesses cold and unstable could be a right dumping where the line of showers set up.

Just out Interest how accurate are these charts they seem so different form the NOOA charts?

Anyway...... sorry to Interrupt the winter funeral on the 20th of february. Yes we are going through a mild phase which to be fair is expected as we've been very fortunate this winter. My thoughts are we will see a few more days of above average temperatures as the High pressure builds from the south later next week it will cut off the supply of warm air and as the days are getting longer so we will continue to see temperatures into double digits but also falling at night to low singe figures. After that a trough dropping into Scandinavia coinciding with vortex in canada on the move which could allow high pressure to pull west and give a northerly.

Not much to get excited about Im afraid if its of the cold bias. The general direction seems to be high pressure building over or near to UK thereafter a trough dropping into Scandinavia more favourably ECM allowing a colder northerly flow nothing notable more likely to be a toppler.

No it will get pulled back to the low exiting newfoundland, with the trough dropping into Scandinavia could allow a gap for high pressure to rise towards Greenland. All way to far out to have any confidence.

snowing again here really going for it now.

For those further east it started off as tiny flakes and ice pellets for at least an hour it wasn't until the temperature starting rising it turned to flakes.

Light to moderate snow here settling easily very dry snow

Think the warning only starts at 9pm because the first front was meant to fizzle out. The second one for 6am tomorrow looks like its made further inroads.

Hell on

freezing rain

850hpa temperatures might be near 0c but look at the 2m temps feeding off the continent wow thats at 13.00

Exactly what I thought, no way in this world that low is going under the block. But if that weak scandi ridge get's far enough west then that Atlantic low will head back NW and like you say shear off some energy clipping the SW and the UK will remain under high pressure with a slack E flow best case scenario at present.

Thats the latest UKMO fax looks like there could be more on that occlusion

Pretty much the same battle as now the cold air was lurking to the NE and mild air to the south. That low that went through was the trigger to pull down the cold air and allow a wedge of high pressure to form which with cold air stalled the low coming in off the Atlantic and dropped the hammer.

Ive been told similar stories to. What I was getting at by showing those charts is the cold air never really got further than cardiff -10 @850hpa and more like -5 camarthen west and that front still didn't make through. With the cold air forecast to be over the whole country for 2/3 days there is a real chance of seeing something like this again.

If anyone remembers the big snowfall of 1982 I don't wasn't born, but here are the archive charts from wetterzentrale. In my village people lost their cars in the drifts and a local farmer even lost his tractor. But you can see how far the mild air has to penetrate the cold for good dumping. You can on this event it stalled and the cold air won. Ive attached how it all started on the 5th until the 8th the cold air won and headed back south.

Me neither we need that low piling in from the west to shunt the meandering low over the uk east to pull the cold air westwards and prop up the block.

woke up to ice pellets hitting the window and temp 3.0 now temp dropping to 2.6 and light wet sleet/snow need intensity and temp to drop further

concentrate on how that behaves will determine the outcome its as simple as that. knife edge stuff. easterly is the form horse I don't disagree its in what form. SE crap, E good , NE jackpot basically clear as mud.

How the low makes its exit is key here looking beyond that well............. lotto numbers?

definitely not bbq. more clarity on the easterly though long way to go solve this riddle.

didn't even see them haha. no clue what your on about. all the best though.

no not you.