danthetan
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Posts posted by danthetan
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Just remember nothing of note likely to crop up until April then we have 20 weeks until we're decending back into short days and this current dross. We really do forget how far north we are in the UK.
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Lukesluckybunch correct and will be more than enough, people have seen snow last few days with -4 @ 850hpa hills of pembrokeshire included right on the coast. Its only 5 days away
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Something I've noticed is the force of the block to the NE seems to be splitting those lows further to the west of the UK with each run meaning we stay more ESE flow as a result. With no cold air on the continent were relying on the block to retrogress to Greenland and enough forcing to keep the lows to the SW to avoid S or SE flow to allow a shot of cold air around the high.
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Looking at the latest fax charts they have that front alot further south than this morning. I would expect lying snow above 200m and falling snow below in heavier bursts even in south wales. If I lived on a hill in Central Wales I'd be very excited. As I'm in pembrokeshire preselis could do OK.
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Ocean Analysis | Tropical Tidbits
WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM
Analysis tools for tracking and forecasting tropical weather -
Hi @Midlands Ice Age im wondering if you can answer this. I use tropical tidbits for viewing SST on the world map it shows ice in white but has a dark grey area which doesnt make clear what it means? My theory is, its got a thin layer of ice which doesn't reach the threshold of 15% sea ice. In which case the ice has although thin has come along way out from the fram towards Iceland this year.
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There we have it snow in mathry
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1 minute ago, bradymk said:
Over a hour of snow there now in that line of showers
Do you have any confirmation or going off the radar. I remember a similar situation around 2010. But there was lying snow covering all of pembrokeshire.
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Well I know where I'd be driving to if I was home and it wouldn't be the preselis...... bloody st davids
who'd have thought it. @Penfoel you look to be next
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5 minutes ago, danthetan said:
Yes someone posted the Cape values expected down the Irish sea on the other thread and looked good for shower formation. Worth looking at the satellite imagery for shower formation and expected track. The hook in the Irish sea is looking good. Although I've shower evaporate if they are not to intense as it hits the cold air over land. I'm in the carribean atm so I won't be seeing any snow.
Looks like st davids of all places will see the first snow falling.
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13 minutes ago, bradymk said:
Agree about organisation. They look good at the moment on the radar, you can tell the airmass is more unstable than the beginning of the week.
All the models seem to agree about a larger heavier blob over the county at about 8/9am, would be interesting if so. After a few hours of showers before hand. Shower locations always hit and miss mind, even down to the last minute.
Wishing I was back west
I’d say at the moment the showers look slightly earlier than the 1am on UKV
Yes someone posted the Cape values expected down the Irish sea on the other thread and looked good for shower formation. Worth looking at the satellite imagery for shower formation and expected track. The hook in the Irish sea is looking good. Although I've shower evaporate if they are not to intense as it hits the cold air over land. I'm in the carribean atm so I won't be seeing any snow.
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46 minutes ago, bradymk said:
Using UKV specifically here for the charts but pretty good agreement across the board.
Latest 15z UKV still looking good for snow showers in Pembrokeshire tonight and also for North Wales. These heavy at times, main accumulations being above 150 metres (5cm here), but UKV showing 2cm to lower levels too where showers are longer lasting.
Current Pembrokeshire temps:
0c Milford Haven
-2c Haverfordwest
-3c Whitechurch
So temps certainly on side tonight with low dew points. Hard to get low lying snow in Pembrokeshire but a good chance here
TONIGHT
Estimated Snow depth tomorrow morning:
Elsewhere snow chances:
The chance of showers for areas further east in the Met Office warning area as we go into Thursday morning as the upper wind becomes more NW’ly again. Compared to Monday, we have lower pressure and heights so some of these could be further inland than the beginning of the week. One to watch.
Later Thursday, heavy snow showers in North Wales again, as well a mix of sleet and snow showers for Western Wales. These further inland again so a chance other areas further east may catch one or two showers before they dissipate.
TOMORROW NIGHT
Not seeing anything for SE Wales but you never know, maybe one or two showers will push through later tomorrow.
A heavy snow shower NW Anglesey right now
I have to agree that's why I piped up earlier best chance for Pembrokeshire it a while for snow. I would be looking for a bit more organisation with the showers for any meaningful accumulations. Plenty cold enough this is my weather station in Haverfordwest
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3 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
Here it is currently 1.9c with a dewpoint of -3.5c.
Never ever seen this low of a dewpoint here in the day.tonight it will be like -5 just before the snow.it will settle so easily
The precipitation is looking intense out at sea if it maintains that should be a good covering.
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15 minutes ago, marclt said:
There was a light dusting over the Cwmcerwyn this morning. Feeling colder today for a change!
Yes I'm recording temps of 3 and dewpoint -0.9 so the air is alot dryer today which usually means it will stick and not be a slushy mess.
The met office fax charts show the convergence line through pembrokeshire with the 528 line well south.
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23 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
I live in the preselis 180m above sea level but they go up to 535m above sea level max.
Yes I've walked up there many times living in pembrokeshire myself and usually the only place that gets any snow. Your location looks very good for tonight.
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Looks like the convergence line is setting up in the Irish Sea temps and dewpoints look good I would expect a dusting in pembrokeshire tonight as the band of showers moves onshore. Just depends how intensive they become for snow depths. I would imagine the preselis will be covered.
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1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:
Such a shame because they can deliver a proper dumping of snow
I've found getting a wind from the N or NNE which is perfect and cold enough doesn't seem to happen these days. I'm talking sea level with any height it's still possible. I havnt checked the wind forecast yet but it should definitely be cold enough next week.
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1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:
Monday looks decent tho it's a straight north and in the past Pembrokeshire danglers are always underestimated by models.so hopefully I see some snow
I haven't seen anything of note snow wise from a dangler since 2004 maybe 2010 or 2009 I can't fully remember, rare as hens teeth these days. Used to be more common when I was in school.
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Biggest eps cluster at day 10 is represented by the control - and that evolves quite nicely
Havnt seen it, but are we talking wedge southerly track lows?
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The difference between UKMO and GFS is at 144hr the azores high is pulled back into the Atlantic. Let's see what EC does.
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@Midlands Ice Age do you think the late melting of the ice in august, has aided the quick refreeze were seeing? As the open water was primed for re-freeze as temperatures dropped. Interested to hear your thoughts
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Temp has dropped 3.2 degrees in an hour cold is marching back south.
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I don't think you can say the GFS has backtracked it has the High in a different orientation over scandi so less colder comes around the SE flank and 144 hrs it's a variation on the drum it's keeps banging. Fascinating watching none the less.
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I think the best case scenario with looking at the 500mb means is the jet stream is pushed as far south as possible due to the heights in the artic putting pressure on the PV . There is alot of cold air bottled up to the NW if we could tap into that it's the best we can hope for.
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Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
sundog Interesting at first glance, but We're the other years el nino? That would account for the Pacific being warmer also in the 80's to late 90s the Atlantic was in the cold phase of the AMO and since then been in the warm phase that could account for current warmth.