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danthetan

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    Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences
    Anything but wind & rain

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  1. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Here we had a light horizontal snow shower and now a covering of hail
  2. I think what John is getting at is the green lines indicate the flow and the blue and red indicate anomaly heights.
  3. The point being that the GFS has no consistency as far out as 96 Hrs so what chance has anything beyond that got of being correct. It was an observation.
  4. Noted that the GFS 6Z was completely different @96hr to its 00Z run with the placing of low pressure systems so charts @ 8-10day cant hold much credence
  5. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Crymych seems to snowing @200M so Preseli's should have lying snow by now
  6. Refering back to my post yesterday regarding the model volatility and alaskan ridge taking todays 12Z UKMO it seems to be advertising with the idea of building heights towards Greenland which sends the jet south and low pressure systems with it this keeping us in colder air. Taking the GFS 12Z you notice the deep low pressure systems are much less apparent compared with a few days ago, but is less keen on building heights into Greenland. We shall have to wait and see if this becomes the trend.
  7. I take your point about the uk weather being boring in the semi reliable time frame. But I'm not looking at whats happening in the uk at 144hr my focus is on the alaskan ridge heading into the pole and what effects that has.
  8. Why people are focusing on charts way out in the ontha and not in the semi reliable time frame 144hr is beyond me. The Alaskan ridge surging into the pole on the last few runs is going to play havoc within the models not worth looking past that timeframe.
  9. I understand that, but I could only find a 12z chart from yesterday in the thread. From memory if I did post yesterdays 0z it would show an even bigger adjustment south according to the ECM.
  10. ECM 12Z yesterday on the left and ECM 0Z looks likes trended south overnight
  11. A few members were discussing the Pembrokeshire Dangler earlier. Living here, I have witnessed it in action, so I managed to find in the archives the chart which produced 10 inch's of snow at sea level back in 2004. The conditions look right for the Dangler to form weds night and Thursday but wether it will be cold enough to turn to snow we will have to wait. Although we have hills @500M so lying snow up there isn't out of the question.
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    One thing I've noticed over the years of model watching is a correction south of low pressure systems coming up against an area of high pressure by the models. It seems the heights to the north are developing rather than established as the low pressure systems are moving across the Atlantic, so this might not be the case but we shall see.
  13. Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    Absolute snow machines in the right conditions. Ive seen them pull the temperature down 5 degrees and over 8 inches of snow in a very short space of time in pembs.
  14. The GFS has continued to show slight adjustment West with both the high pressure to the north of the UK and the deep low to the NE Scandinavia if this continues in the next few days and that trough can drop south into europe surley this will aid retrogression towards Greenland.
  15. Seems that lobe of high pressure which shoots up from the mid Atlantic hangs around south of Iceland a while longer this not allowing the small low over Iberia move as far north and expand so quickly and join the energy leaving the states thus allowing the winds to stay easterly a short while longer and if the corrections keep the high coming further west that deep low dropping into NE Scandinavia could aid retrogression towards Greenland.
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