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danthetan

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    Llangwm, Dyfed
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  1. One thing I've noticed over the years of model watching is a correction south of low pressure systems coming up against an area of high pressure by the models. It seems the heights to the north are developing rather than established as the low pressure systems are moving across the Atlantic, so this might not be the case but we shall see.
  2. Absolute snow machines in the right conditions. Ive seen them pull the temperature down 5 degrees and over 8 inches of snow in a very short space of time in pembs.
  3. The GFS has continued to show slight adjustment West with both the high pressure to the north of the UK and the deep low to the NE Scandinavia if this continues in the next few days and that trough can drop south into europe surley this will aid retrogression towards Greenland.
  4. Seems that lobe of high pressure which shoots up from the mid Atlantic hangs around south of Iceland a while longer this not allowing the small low over Iberia move as far north and expand so quickly and join the energy leaving the states thus allowing the winds to stay easterly a short while longer and if the corrections keep the high coming further west that deep low dropping into NE Scandinavia could aid retrogression towards Greenland.
  5. The flow looks to be a slight south easterly at 500mb but if you look at the fax charts for surface flow which is what effects us at the surface the winds are easterly.
  6. While looking for a snow event in the near future Ive had a nice surprise here at sea level in pembrokeshire heavy snow falling temp down from 8c at 14.00 to 1.6 @ 16.30 quite remarkable drop that.
  7. Looking at the date are those yesterdays charts Chris?
  8. Just to point out that tweet was from yesterday so things may have changed by today's update.
  9. With reference to my post on Sunday about the (blocking high) we can see the models were underestimating the resilience of the high pressure and has extended the time we are being influenced by it. It will be very interesting to see if the block can sustain the Atlantic attempts at breaking through next week and as hinted by ECM tonight, maybe send some energy under the block. Interestingly while looking for my post on Sunday I came across this attached chart from 1991 someone had posted, quite interesting how close it is to GFS 12z chart for next Tuesday theres hope yet.
  10. So GFS 06Z doesn't split the trough in the Atlantic very well or far enough west to keep us in an Eastley flow. Im not sure how accurate the jet stream forecasts are but at 144 hrs thats where the jet splits and strengthens the southern tracking jet, Im hoping this is correct to flatten the ridging Azores high which was modelled on the ECM 0z.
  11. Where we go after 120hrs for me is anyones guess, it all seems to hinge on what happens to the trough in the Atlantic around 144hrs. ECM pulls all the energy over the top off the high sitting over the UK, UKMO seems to send most of the energy over the top but some underneath and GFS more or less splits it sending enough energy to at least drag colder air in for a time before pushing the high back into Europe, all these options go on to produce very different outcomes in the latter stages of GFS & ECM. With that in mind we know how the models always struggle to gauge the strength of any such blocking high so for me i need to see some consistency from the models around the 144 hr period before knowing which way were heading.
  12. Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    That's the 00z run. But here is the 12Z and its much better
  13. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Thats likely to be corrected west as we get closer to monday
  14. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Exactly what I thought, and its probably for the better it did come from that direction
  15. I can't help think that the next weeks cold snap/spell will be a lot better than the models are showing atm, if they are talking about the cold snap on todays lunch time weather for the following week they don't normally do that
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