[December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins]

Hi guys. This is my first posting in a few years and indeed the first time I've entered the CET competition, so I hope I'm not too late. 

I am a follower of Gavsweathervids. His latest update states that we may be losing the blocking signal that has prevailed through November. Is it possible to get a cold December without blocking? I'm going for 5.3 please. ☺

[April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

Just been explaining to my dad that temperatures for April are running somewhat above average to the 25th, and he said that he finds that hard to believe because of how cold it's been lately. I'm trying to think of a way to explain to him how it works.

[February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

I'd love to see a cold February. However, I'm going to hazard a guess of 3.6c. I don't think it'll be relentlessly mild throughout, but I doubt that any wintry spells will be protracted enough to give a cold CET. I also have a feeling that it'll be colder towards the end.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Is it my imagination or does the loss of daylight during July, seem to be more gradual than the increase of daylight in January. I'm guessing the Aphelion and Perihelion play a part in this? Thanks

[The changing daylight hours thread]

I live in the West Midlands and realise that since the Winter Solstice, we've gained 4 minutes daylight in the afternoon, whilst the mornings have continued getting darker, and will not not get lighter until after January 4th. This is due to the equation of time caused primarily by obliquity (the tilt of the earth's axis as it orbits the sun) and to a lesser degree due to eccentricity (the varying distance from the sun). My dad is convinced that we rapidly gain daylight after the solstice. However, I've explained to him that the change in daylight from day to day, be if positive or negative, is only subtle. How can I give him a clear explanation of this? Thanks 

[Ridge and inversion - what is the difference?]

I understand that a ridge is an upper high (occuring below the tropopause) that is associated with warm air advection. However I was trying to figure out the difference between a ridge and an inversion. I'm guessing a ridge is assiciated with the horizontal axis, and an inversion to do with warmer air rising vertically from the surface? Any help greatly appreciated. Thanks

[Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17]

I hope that the 'polar vortex', which is bringing intensely cold air southwards over the eastern seaboard of the USA, will weaken and become more organised as the winter progresses. 

[How often should we expect a very cold December?]

They can happen at anytime. It's just about luck. 2010 was the coldest since...was it 1891? There were cold Decembers in 1981, 1995,1996, 2009 and 2010 (I'm 28 so am listing the ones which I know have occured in my lifetime. Maybe the next cold December will have a CET close to the CETs of those Decembers averaged out...just a thought. ☺

[January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

Drier and milder than average. I'll take a gamble at 4.2C. 

[What's your favourite month from past memories?]

I personally liked November 2005. If I remember correctly, it began on a very mild note, but high pressure built in just after mid-month. Fog (which was often reluctant to clear the following day) and frost were regular occurences in my neck of the woods (Black Country). I think the CET was fairly average overall, due to a very mild first half being cancelled out by a very cold second half. I think the last fortnight was the coldest since 1993...

 

[December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year]

I'll take a guess with 2.8c. A similar setup to 1996 I think. It won't be nothing exceptional, but it will certainly have its wintry moments.

[is it autumn or is it winter?]

Whatever the weather, the period September 1st to November 30th will be regarded by meteorologists as autumn. In recent years we have had some very mild Novembers (I believe 2013 was the last one that came in a bit below average). This November has been far more normal in terms of temperature (at least to the current date). We are reaching the very final stages of autumn now, where the transition from autumn into winter is almost complete - most trees are bare now. However, we can't officially say it's winter until Thursday December 1st.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

That sounds fantastic. I hope that outlook remains unchanged.

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

The lack of cold nights has been really annoying.

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

According to Weather Outlook a disturbance leading to exceptionally mild air is expected across the country at the weekend, with maxima and minima looking well above average for Friday and Saturday. Thereafter it becomes chilly in the north but stays mild in the south. We then into the last week of November, so it doesn't look as though the temperature will be falling too much. Let's hope the outlook changes drastically and starts to pick up on something much colder soon.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Thank you for that.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I'll admit I do ask a lot of questions yes. It's just that I'm very keen to learn. Apologies if I am posting these questions in the wrong thread. I'm still new here, so I hope you'll understand that I'm still finding my way around the site. Where is the best place for me to post such questions? Thanks

[Early winter hopes and chat]

What's responsible for the lack of cold nights and frosts this season?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Would that break any records?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

So cooler weather is expected?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Do you think it will finish close to that figure, or is a decline likely?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Is this due to Global Warming I wonder, or just natural variability...?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Thanks, SomelikeitHot, so basically it explains how the averages have come about (i.e. what they have been made up of)?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Thanks for posting that graph. I can see why they call it a bell curve...shaped like a bell.

How then is the CET different from other averages? Can anyone explain this to me please?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Yes I know last year was extreme. But if a warmer world is going to lead to more extremes, is one extreme going to become more likely than another extreme, if you know what I mean...?