Festivefreeze

Hi guys. This is my first posting in a few years and indeed the first time I've entered the CET competition, so I hope I'm not too late. I am a follower of Gavsweathervids. His latest update states that we may be losing the blocking signal that has prevailed through November. Is it possible to get a cold December without blocking? I'm going for 5.3 please. ☺

Just been explaining to my dad that temperatures for April are running somewhat above average to the 25th, and he said that he finds that hard to believe because of how cold it's been lately. I'm trying to think of a way to explain to him how it works.

I'd love to see a cold February. However, I'm going to hazard a guess of 3.6c. I don't think it'll be relentlessly mild throughout, but I doubt that any wintry spells will be protracted enough to give a cold CET. I also have a feeling that it'll be colder towards the end.

Is it my imagination or does the loss of daylight during July, seem to be more gradual than the increase of daylight in January. I'm guessing the Aphelion and Perihelion play a part in this? Thanks

I live in the West Midlands and realise that since the Winter Solstice, we've gained 4 minutes daylight in the afternoon, whilst the mornings have continued getting darker, and will not not get lighter until after January 4th. This is due to the equation of time caused primarily by obliquity (the tilt of the earth's axis as it orbits the sun) and to a lesser degree due to eccentricity (the varying distance from the sun). My dad is convinced that we rapidly gain daylight after the solstice. However, I've explained to him that the change in daylight from day to day, be if positive or negative, is only subtle. How can I give him a clear explanation of this? Thanks

I understand that a ridge is an upper high (occuring below the tropopause) that is associated with warm air advection. However I was trying to figure out the difference between a ridge and an inversion. I'm guessing a ridge is assiciated with the horizontal axis, and an inversion to do with warmer air rising vertically from the surface? Any help greatly appreciated. Thanks

I hope that the 'polar vortex', which is bringing intensely cold air southwards over the eastern seaboard of the USA, will weaken and become more organised as the winter progresses.

They can happen at anytime. It's just about luck. 2010 was the coldest since...was it 1891? There were cold Decembers in 1981, 1995,1996, 2009 and 2010 (I'm 28 so am listing the ones which I know have occured in my lifetime. Maybe the next cold December will have a CET close to the CETs of those Decembers averaged out...just a thought. ☺

Drier and milder than average. I'll take a gamble at 4.2C.

I personally liked November 2005. If I remember correctly, it began on a very mild note, but high pressure built in just after mid-month. Fog (which was often reluctant to clear the following day) and frost were regular occurences in my neck of the woods (Black Country). I think the CET was fairly average overall, due to a very mild first half being cancelled out by a very cold second half. I think the last fortnight was the coldest since 1993...

I'll take a guess with 2.8c. A similar setup to 1996 I think. It won't be nothing exceptional, but it will certainly have its wintry moments.

Whatever the weather, the period September 1st to November 30th will be regarded by meteorologists as autumn. In recent years we have had some very mild Novembers (I believe 2013 was the last one that came in a bit below average). This November has been far more normal in terms of temperature (at least to the current date). We are reaching the very final stages of autumn now, where the transition from autumn into winter is almost complete - most trees are bare now. However, we can't officially say it's winter until Thursday December 1st.

That sounds fantastic. I hope that outlook remains unchanged.

The lack of cold nights has been really annoying.

According to Weather Outlook a disturbance leading to exceptionally mild air is expected across the country at the weekend, with maxima and minima looking well above average for Friday and Saturday. Thereafter it becomes chilly in the north but stays mild in the south. We then into the last week of November, so it doesn't look as though the temperature will be falling too much. Let's hope the outlook changes drastically and starts to pick up on something much colder soon.