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Not necessarily
exactly. But the fact that people are saying its wrong to predict a cold winter but it seems ok for them to predict a mild 1 simply is nonsense. Wish people would say what they think on the coming winter rather than shying away from making a decision.
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And 9 times out of 10 our winters do normally turn out mild.
so that means this winter will ?
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Haha yes, I have the dilemma this winter with wanting cold weather, but also wanting a relatively stress-free life at work!
Again, I don't think anyone has stuck their colours to the mast and declared it won't be cold?
a lot of people seem to jump on the wagon for it to be mild simply to cover them selves. I have seen it so many times on here.
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lol people are far to scared to say what they think, too scared of being wrong. You will never make anything. The met office wont even comment on the winter at all as they have had it so badly wrong many times. nobody can predict it but it makes me laugh how people say that it wont be cold and act as though they know. 2009 october the 18 forecast was very similar to this weeks. Anything can happen in a short space of time.
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The CFS anomaly charts are hinting at something very similar to last year.
1. the cfs charts are very unreliable
2. there nothing like last year in anyway so check your facts
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Just been having a sneak peak over on weather outlook winter forecasts and notice roger j smith sticking with warmer wetter than average uk winter ahead. Interesting.
lol wrong again, Troll
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lol people seem to change there mind overnight.
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Looking through the gefs members seems unlikely a strong vortex will build in the next 2 weeks. Building blocks seem to so far be falling into place nicely
what does this indicate terrier! thanks is it on cue for a cold winter
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i love the way every time the papers say forecasters are predicting it, its always james madden
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i really want to eradicate james madden from the world.
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HI Ben,
What we are looking for is something called the SAI ( snow advance index) This is or can be important for Europe and us on our little island.
There is a theory that the earlier snow cover over the continent the better, this is because as snow covers the continent to our east, high pressure has a better chance of building , Its called the Cohen effect and has a lot to do with a very cold surface and teleconnections from that into the atmosphere , take a look at this image i posted earlier its the most recent and updates every 24hrs.
At the moment the most snow cover in Russia is well to the east , what we would like to see is the snow cover advancing west toward Europe and into it ( incidentley it looks like it will over the coming few days) .
Snow cover especially this month is very important for those teleconnections to have a chance of having developing and have an effect on the atmosphere over those regions.
When and if, a high builds over Russia and eastern Europe, the high can drift far enough our way to block the atlantic and produce easterly winds direct from Siberia and northern blocking.
It is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination but the possibilty remains.
There are many other variables to be considered that can impact our weather type in winter.
Not to quote a supermarket slogan but "every little helps"
Hope this helps Ben .
Amazing reply Bryan!! thanks
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Impressive positive anomalies on both sides of the Arctic
Hey there! what does this indicate is it a good sign for a cold winter ?
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It did get tedious after a while didn't it! I would like a cold winter too. I am hoping last year was a one off and not a weather pattern that would repeat itself in a cluster, that would be a disaster!
Cant agree more, i will be suprised to see this winter being the same, our winters so so unpredictable. at least if we lived in Norway we would know it will be cold haha
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I hope another large high doesn't settle to the west of America again, forcing frigid cold air into the northeast of America and into the Atlantic! That could bring a repeat of last winter, depending on the sea temps in the Atlantic of course!
Was thinking that myself Lassie!! really would be a horrible winter again. i enjoyed the storms but after 1 or 2 it gets boring!! i would like a cold winter this year.
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By the way James Madden really is everything wrong with weather. He says the same thing every year pretty much, doesnt even change a sentence
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Each to there own, every body is aloud to have there own predictions/opinions, we all know its hard even impossible to predict the winter. But i think its a bit unfair for people to write other people off when they havent got a clue them selves. Whats the point in having a forum when its not even considered right for you to give your own opinions. i predict a colder than average winter based on what i have read so far E.G. Eastern QBO, El Nino and many other factors which could go our way.
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Obviously still a little bit off but here is views from a more mature experienced weather forecaster who i follow. Seemed to be right the last few years.
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hi ben
yes it certainly is, he loves the snow too, love walking him
Over the fields as the snow is falling, we are like to kids
c.s
i dont blame you! i also love it!! im looking to get a pug cross french bulldog!
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Just had a look at the met check six month outlook, which I
Believe is produced by the gfs
Yesterday for christmas day 1c and snow
Today 12c and sunny
All jff of course
C.s
is that a pug cross beagle in your pic?
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The jet stream is very high at the moment i think i would go for a mild winter although i wish we do have a cold winter, its still early days but for some reason i have a feeling that the jet stream as long with other factors will once again be a complete ***
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Looks as though an el nino is very likely with the consistent negatives that we are recieving. You can keep an eye on the daily values here!
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
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http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
Getting some nice negative readings, El Nino looking very likely.
What effect will it have on our winter ?
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Just been reading through roger j smiths winter outlook for 2014/2015 and at the moment it does seem that everything is pointing towards a wetter and warmer than average winter. Now roger has called this summer pretty much spot on. But as ever time will tell. But looks very similar to last winter as things stand.
Evening terrier!
im not sure which post you are refering to as i have not seen anything that resembles this, also as far as long range charts are concerned it looks a lot colder than last winter. But as its been stressed before, theres no way of really knowing!
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Early winter hopes and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
this is how i would love the winter to go Ant!! as long as there is a mixture and its not just dull i would settle for it!!