A big well done must go out to those who predicted a bitter winter for North America such as Gavin Partridge. That is some freeze, a bit too dangerous though, those temps are too cold.
Yes the models are bouncing around like crazy and mild weather wins then a block appears, then the mild weather wins out again. The stratosphere models are also constantly changing. My guess is that the models are suffering and cannot get a grip on the present atmospheric chaos. Poor models.
UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jan 2014 to Thursday 30 Jan 2014:Current indications suggest that the recent unsettled conditions will persist at first. However there are then some signals that the weather may undergo a change later in this period, as colder conditions become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January, although mainly across the northern parts of the UK. This also indicates the potential for more settled conditions, bringing less in the way of windy and wet weather by the end of the month.
Updated: 1147 on Wed 1 Jan 2014
I live down south
Only been a member of this forum since December 27th this year, so I haven't got to know anybody yet, but it doesn't stop me from wishing all members here a very happy, healthy, snowy, cold, northern blocked beasterly new year.
People really could do with some drier weather, what with all the flooding, but more rain seems to be the model message tonight. I thought stormy mild winters were a thing of the past, but they still crop up every two or three years, which is far better than when they were the norm i guess.
Tomorrow afternoon when you wake up from your hangover, the polar vortex will be forecast to split and a cold spell will be forecast for mid January. Or is that the drink talking.
Been around since the summer, feels comfortable and cannot be bothered to move, although it will probably bugger off during the summer, making last summer a one off. I don't think i am going to get to use this little guy this winter.
Things have to change over Canada and North America. Way too much deeply cold air flooding into the North Atlantic and mixing with warmer waters, if this continues, then so does the storm onslaught. I......guess
Weatherweb tv mentioned a cold snap in the middle of January. CFS is going for one too, but a brief one which may be extended due to the predicted Stratospheric Warming. As long as I get a fix of ice and snow, then I'm happy. Those snowless winters with 14 degrees in February in the 1990's were awful.
Sorry John, that's me being lazy. Indeed, stratospheric warming. Last year we had sudden stratospheric warming that brought us cold and snow, this years is slower, can it still produce the goods?
SW will hopefully be large enough over Greenland and Newfoundland to disrupt the polar vortex. If we are really lucky, it will split it, then we should prepare for a colder second half of January with the S word creeping into the forecast. Until then, the models will continue to churn out atlantic storms and mild weather. Poor wildlife, the animals and insects think it is spring.