lassie23

Yes the models are bouncing around like crazy and mild weather wins then a block appears, then the mild weather wins out again. The stratosphere models are also constantly changing. My guess is that the models are suffering and cannot get a grip on the present atmospheric chaos. Poor models.

New years eve was model watching doom, all of a sudden we have hope from the scandi high and an upgrade in stratospheric warming. Woohoo!

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jan 2014 to Thursday 30 Jan 2014:Current indications suggest that the recent unsettled conditions will persist at first. However there are then some signals that the weather may undergo a change later in this period, as colder conditions become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January, although mainly across the northern parts of the UK. This also indicates the potential for more settled conditions, bringing less in the way of windy and wet weather by the end of the month. Updated: 1147 on Wed 1 Jan 2014 I live down south

Plus any large changes in the stratosphere, can change the weather patterns, which in turn change the models. All connected!

Only been a member of this forum since December 27th this year, so I haven't got to know anybody yet, but it doesn't stop me from wishing all members here a very happy, healthy, snowy, cold, northern blocked beasterly new year.

People really could do with some drier weather, what with all the flooding, but more rain seems to be the model message tonight. I thought stormy mild winters were a thing of the past, but they still crop up every two or three years, which is far better than when they were the norm i guess.

Tomorrow afternoon when you wake up from your hangover, the polar vortex will be forecast to split and a cold spell will be forecast for mid January. Or is that the drink talking.

Been around since the summer, feels comfortable and cannot be bothered to move, although it will probably bugger off during the summer, making last summer a one off. I don't think i am going to get to use this little guy this winter.

That might just shift it!

Things have to change over Canada and North America. Way too much deeply cold air flooding into the North Atlantic and mixing with warmer waters, if this continues, then so does the storm onslaught. I......guess

More bitter cold over Canada, more storms in the Atlantic heading our way, the models are as they were and as they will be, for some time to come.

I know what can break us out of this weather rut, but i am not going to mention the S word again tonight.

and it's not snow

Troposphere....enlighten me, I know nothing about this and how it affects our weather.

Euro high and azores high this winter have been misbehaving! They just won't head north.

Sorry, thought it was 2014 already! A white new years eve would have been cool though, rather than what the models are showing.

If the stratospheric warming continues to get upgraded like that, then we could be in for a potent cold spell later this month.

Weatherweb tv mentioned a cold snap in the middle of January. CFS is going for one too, but a brief one which may be extended due to the predicted Stratospheric Warming. As long as I get a fix of ice and snow, then I'm happy. Those snowless winters with 14 degrees in February in the 1990's were awful.

I wouldn't worry about the bbc or met office monthly outlook, they are a rough guide, rather than an accurate weather forecast.

Sorry John, that's me being lazy. Indeed, stratospheric warming. Last year we had sudden stratospheric warming that brought us cold and snow, this years is slower, can it still produce the goods?

SW will hopefully be large enough over Greenland and Newfoundland to disrupt the polar vortex. If we are really lucky, it will split it, then we should prepare for a colder second half of January with the S word creeping into the forecast. Until then, the models will continue to churn out atlantic storms and mild weather. Poor wildlife, the animals and insects think it is spring.

Tomorrow is looking awful, possible sting jet development.

Storm after storm is the message of the models. However, they will be taking a different route towards the UK leading to brief northerly outbreaks and maybe some of the white stuff.

Any sign of northern blocking on any models today?

The jet continues to rule for now!