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Everything posted by William Grimsley
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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
William Grimsley replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@Karl., that's a stunning GFS run, it's rare to see the GFS be so positve right until the end! -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes, but it's too late now, really can't see anything setting off now.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well, looks like these isolated thunderstorms never occured. Pffft.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
@Supacell, luckily we had some good thunderstorms last month so I won't be too down if we don't get anything, if we had this weather for a month I'd be happy.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I really hope there's a slight eastward shift. I think everyone from the southern tip of Devon all the way up to Cumbria would love an MCS, hey?!- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hi Dave, Would say you're not in the best place, but as we all know Essex is one of the thunderstorm hotspots in Southern England so you have a chance, to be honest, most activity currently seems to be reserved for Cornwall and Devon northwards.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
@Nick F, thanks for that brilliant forecast. If I read it correctly, is my area classed as being the "breeding ground" for these thunderstorms or would I still be too far south?- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes, models and particularly in detail precipitation charts aren't always the best bits of information to focus on at this range. What is happening is the charts are now starting to get confused and the runs are all over the place now, so the best thing is to just wait and see what occurs on the day. What did we do before charts? We just had to wait and see. Oh, well it may be the worst thunderstorm period for you, but certainly not down here. BBC still think so, at least they're still going with it. "Warm and humid on Wednesday with a chance of early thunderstorms, but becoming fresher by Thursday with showers." Gives me hope...- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Potentially, but if the low is being forecast further west, then it may be warmer, to me that doesn't look fresh, still temperatures in the mid-20's...- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Now I'm getting worried, maybe we won't see anything. But, I'm not throwing the toys out of the pram just yet, I think we still have a very good chance down here, as I've always said models are pointless at this range.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
We'll just have to wait and see!- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hello Matt, was wondering when you might be back. I agree lots of time for it to change, but thunderstorms look very likely now.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Will be interesting to witness this MCS you're talking about, but not really sure if I should get excited about it, just yet.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Nice shot for your location, I would predict that thunderstorms will be most intense in southern areas before becoming thundery rain or just heavy rain as they move northward.- 2,726 replies
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
An MCS?! Come on! Or, am I too far south?! -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm not saying that, but it always seems as if I never get anything right when it turns out I do. Most of us on here are novices in this kind of thing and we've just got to wait and see what happens. Currently, things aren't looking too optimistic here, what do you think AJ? -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm chill bro! Well, like always I never seem to be right on this forum. This time you're wrong too. -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Ok, let me get this straight. Firstly, I'm NOT planning my life around this event! Where did I say that? Nowhere! Yes, I do remember those events! The reason I was surprised is simply because forecasted conditions look good for Tuesday and Wednesday, as W09 did mention a few days ago. Quite offended. Also, not sure if you noticed, but on Tuesday and Wednesday the UK is under a low not an azores high. Jeez. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
William Grimsley replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ahh, sorry even though I talk as IMBY, I didn't realise you were too. Anyway, back on topic, sorry... -
Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
William Grimsley replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't say that, starting from today we have 5 days of heat here. -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
BBC Weather graphics still on board with widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday Night and Wednesday, though only showing light rain showers for my location, will be just putting this down to innacuracy for now. What's even more strange is the lack of preciptation on both the NMM and GFS for this area even though ML CAPE is at it's highest, again putting this down to innacuracy. -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Sorry, I was being very IMBY, please note that whenever I talk about weather that's terrible I'm on about IMBY not the country as a whole. -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
No, nothing bad, there was just a very low amount of thunder and lightning that year here. No worries. -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Don't remind me of 2015 please! It was terrible! -
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
William Grimsley replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That's surface based so no use to me, let's just hope we can get some imports!