Longtimelurker

There is no Continental air over England, its 200 miles East in the North sea. So I don't see how an Easterly is guaranteed when there is more confidence for the Westerly and you state confidence is low for this. Out to T300 and its a Westerly ,not once has an Easterly shown up to this point. Where is the guaranteed coming from?

No you'd put your money on the GFS. As it was the only one who didn't call the phantom "Cold Easterly" for this weekend, earlier this week ecm and ukmo had -10 uppers across England and Scotland for now.

Remember what they were saying in early December and remember last winter early doors, you yourself were predicting copious snow with the Teleconnections then that never materialised and once this started showing in the models alot of the Teleconnections crew started altering their predictions. So many blinkers

Snowing in donegal this morning

Lots living on lá lá land on the model thread. The ECM has got progressively worse those past 3-4 runs yet them seem oblivious for the most part.

Agree 100%. IMO the last couple of runs haven't been as good but I never jumped on the joy train to begin with. The trend is your friend as they say.

ECM is pretty rubbish in terms of snow. Dry fest mostly. Give me a Greenie high any day over this.

Castlederg 57mph. Malin head reached the 70s,normal for there.

Are you basing this completely off the GFS?

Do you mean for your area or those areas under Amber warnings?

Met Éireann got this right. Surprised no yellow warning from Met office or NI Facebook weather

I check humidity widely above 90%. Snowing here now as well

Snowed heavy in Donegal last night and western parts of NI

Met Éireann snow warning for tonight. This is a pic I took last night. All gone now unfortunately

Chance of more snow tonight, similar to last night. Storm this weekend. Warnings out.

I thought it needed to be calm for evaporative cooling? I'm probably wrong

Snowing heavy in Donegal. Rained for first 5 minutes giant flakes since. Winds picking up.

Chief Forecaster's assessment A band of snow and rain is expected to move northeastwards over Northern Ireland later on Thursday night and during Friday morning. Snow is more likely over the north and west of Northern Ireland where it will fall to low levels for a time before tending to turn to rain towards dawn. Elsewhere any snow will be temporary and the greater risk is for rain to fall onto frozen surfaces leading to ice for an hour or two after the rain begins.

I never said it was useless so don't put words in my mouth. I'm not expecting a silver bullet either. My point is it gets mentioned more than anything else when it comes to signals on here and almost always some excuse is made for it when it doesn't pan out as expected, a wishy washy non descriptive one at that . I'm not railing against anything just pointing out the jibberish and your post would be well suited to the moan thread. How dare anyone on here question background signals. How very dare they.

I often wonder why it gets so much attention when this is the case. NOAA update pretty much says they don't have a clue. LRWF are pants

What's the verification stats for GFS in winter for 10 days in to the future? Exactly

"There is no interest long term in the ECM - it order for anything decent to come from a migrating high from the Pacific side it needs to align more towards Russia- no interest in the models at the moment ( other than the odd transient event at elevation - nothing to develop in the North / North east for +10 days at least" From model thread from a certain poster who predicted up to 5 inches of snow when it had turned back to rain last week. Model thread is confusing, lots of posts saying there will be nothing just because their area isn't included but they forget to say that. I'm not saying it will be a snow fest but we certainly have a decent chance of seeing some snow next week. Certainly not as pessimistic as the model thread

Sorry Pomeroy couldn't delete that above. ECM Snow depth charts in inches

Wouldn't the cold air be coming down from the North rather than via Scandinavia in this set up? Looks like its coming from the direct North to me but I'm just a noob