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Ruben Amsterdam

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    Ås, Norway
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    Alpine/arctic ecologist interested in weather and climate

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  1. This is the central theme of this entire thread. I think if you read back a couple of pages, you will find your question answered more than once. - The trop. response between SSWs differs between events. No guarantees given. - The stratospheric vortex will likely be out of business for a while - The standard time until the first trop. response is 10-14 days, but can be less, more, or the response may never come - EC shows a modest signal for downwelling at +240, but nothing convincing yet
  2. It's quite fascinating how the vortex shatters and basically ceases to exist at 10 hPa (GFS 12z FI). This translates to a pattern with relatively high geop. in the Canada/Greenland sector in the lower strat. Yet there is nothing (yet) to be seen in troposphere, not even a cute tiny baby polar high.
  3. So there you have it, EC more or less adopts the GFS-scenario
  4. Polar Stratospheric Clouds observed in the northern part of the Netherlands! Or? Dutch/Belgian weather forum
  5. That zonal wind at 1hpa used to be -40 in the previous runs though. But beggars can't be choosers
  6. But is GFS truly that different? Showing a modest split at 10hpa. The bigger differences are at the top of the strat I think.
  7. That's bad news bears. But please note that the paper mentions the NAM at 100-300 hPa, not 1000.
  8. Cheers on your first post! For the record: the GEFS still shows a technical SSW but keeps pushing it back. Meanwhile, the hump in the short term is getting higher and higher (conform the operational runs).
  9. Thanks for the great feedback. I will try to MacGyver my way out using a 5W solar panel! :)
  10. So you take power from your Davis station? I'm sorry I do not quite understand. I'm building a diy version of a Stevenson screen and maybe I will add a fan (considering to use the Netatmo). What would be the best way to power the fan without having to run power cables into the yard?
  11. The problem is the small low of the Norwegian coast shown here at +96. This prevents fusion between the two area's of high pressure.
  12. Right I read you Most model ensembles are now hinting with blocks, just a lot of variation in position and timing. It's an interesting idea to think to what extend the models perform with stratospheric configurations that are several sigma's away from normal conditions. To what extend are models calibrated to handle (or to what extend do we understand strat-trop coupling?) vortex remnants moving from east to west like in the coming 72 hours?
  13. I do not quite see what you mean here. Surely, EC sees the reversal coming as it is output from the exact same model we look at in Berlin's Strat. plots vs. tropospheric output on meteociel. Perhaps, our current understanding of strat-trop dynamics limits our ability to accurately model responses to SSW events, but that's something different. And there is a possibility that the response is not as we all expect it (i.e. quick response, AO-), right? Not what we all hope for, but a possibility none the less.
  14. Would I be correct in stating this would also be a Canadian Warming? I.e. anomalies in early winter in the Canadian sector are Canadian Warmings, but only some of these also classify as a full-SSW?
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