jvenge

More recent model runs weakening the proposed (current not onset) El Nino. Awaiting BOM next update. I was thinking the last 3 months it would be ENSO neutral or weakish Modoki. I was favouring neutral, but looks like I guessed wrong according to models. All shall be come clear soon, though. ECMWF and MetO appear to be on the top end of the estimate still. Can change. Solar fairly weak. Not yet clear if minimum. But low, none the less. This, of course, leads to unknowns for the second half of Autumn and early winter. I'm no expert, but I'd suggest that the Atlantic should have a weak influence into early winter, but how the ENSO develops the next weeks to influence Autumn is up for grabs.

It is really unfortunate that this thread is turned into yet another pointless climate change thread. Especially since it is guaranteed to just be an endless circle of argument. Ultimately, as said before, my understanding of a solar minimum is that through stratospheric interactions, it can steer the polar arm of the jet stream away from Western Europe (blocking) and thus allow colder air from the arctic and Russia to penetrate into Europe and sometimes all the way to the British isles. I'd suppose it is a similar behaviour to a text book El Nino interaction (doesn't go to plan more times than not) on the polar arm of the jet, but I haven't really compared the two. It is proposed that during more prolonged minimums in the past that this caused successive colder winters in Europe. But I really don't want to get in to predicting future solar cycles and I would suggest that many people are muddying the waters in here by referencing it. Just what threshold is needed for this to be more of a dominant feature and how it weighs up against other aspects, I'm not sure, but it would seem through correlation that a cold winter usually does hit Europe during or around a solar minimum (i refer to the minimum of a solar cycle, not any grand minimums and the like). This seems to happen irrespective of the ENSO state being neutral, El Nino or La Nina. I'm really not sure of how these interactions play together and which combinations are more suited or not. Perhaps it would take @Tamara or someone to clarify the specifics Unclear if this winter is the minimum of the present solar cycle or if it will be for next winter. I suppose that, in part anyway, will be answered by observations until November or so.

I guess cheeky monkey has a point, then. Sunspot levels low, suggesting a minimum somewhere between 3 months ago and next summer, but would this year be the minimum( unknown for now) or next year? Also, is there a threshold for when it kicks in? How low does it need to go and for how long? For 3 consecutive years to make it in would seem a bit generous I'm not so well read on the subject, but I'm assuming this is impacting the strat and thus steering the polar arm of the jet stream away from Europe, allowing cold from the Arctic and Russia to cool the continent.

When we discuss solar minimum, are we referring to sun spots?

Quite like drizzle myself.

No, I get it. It's just that it isn't alarming enough, in regards to the initial question By the way. Are you aware of any proposals to block any straits in the arctic? Since the big ice loss years seemed to coincide with the natural ice arches not forming and thus certain wind patterns blowing ice out of the arctic where it quickly melts. You would think such an approach is doable, considering the length of most of them.

Hmm? I quite like sprouts. It was bang on average for Moldova, which saw day time highs between 28-32 most days. It actually got to average without any overly hot spells or cool spells. Good storms first half of summer.

Firstly I mentioned ice free in summer, as that seems to be the more near to medium term chance. I don't know where to begin re ice free all year around. Since there is no prospect of that likely in my life time, not worth me speculating now. Coasts are eroding World wide and have been since the last glacial period. So, trying to point to coastal erosion as an issue is just not alarming enough. No sea rise from it. Also, considering how pot holes behave, there is likely a case for a freeze and thaw doing more damage than a continuous freeze or no freeze. So it would be unclear how that would end up. Also, extreme ice and cold is generally bad for a local population. So, ultimately, localities being more habitable due to less extreme conditions is only going to be a net positive. Any increase in erosion (no sea rise) is not going to counter the benefits of a more temperate local climate. Not saying its right, as I personally think it is horrible to lose such a habitat, but the aesthetics aside, it would be a net positive. Could be, but an equally more likely scenario if to go with yours is that the increase in air moisture would lead to increased precipitation as snow fall/rain, which then freezes and adds to the mass. See the past two years. I understand precipitation to be increasing in Antarctica as well. So, it isn't so simple. Rightly or wrongly, the Arctic isn't a priority. Not just in words, but in actions.

I guess the issue with the arctic is there is no doomsday scenario as with Greenland or Antarctica. Nobody can really say why an ice free arctic would be bad in summer. Some might try and handwave some tenuous link to coastal erosion, but thats about it.

Need to see the red line at 266k or so before you can say the bottom, but given where it is and the forecast, unlikely to see it go much below tje current level.

It is quite true that the damage is being done in winter and then leaving it very vulnerable if the right (or wrong) conditions hit in a summer. But.... if you look at the big melt summers, you can't find a clear temperature link to cause it. As in, even when a lot of melt is under way, the mean 2m temps are at or below normal. So, that leaves wind patterns, storms and ocean currents I guess. Water vapour would explain the winter issue and also the slightly cooling summers up there. Forecast for next week or so would seem to be cold. Probably we have seen the bottom this season.

Stunningly beautiful. I think that should bring some surface temperatures to 20-21 to my part of the World next weekend.

Picky lot you brits :-D Warm, but not too warm...

Are the chases still on? :-)

For impacts, yes....seems to have a month of life left into it. Current model projections seem to be going towards neutral after that. For cold weather lovers, a move towards an El Nino for the winter would be preferred. In the mean time, for a good Spring and Summer, the demise of the La Nina should be wished for.

Oh, this is an interesting one. The English seem to have a certain reckless attitude when it comes to snow. No idea why. In Moldova, obviously everyone has winter tyres and as such, problems are unlikely to happen. However, if there are yellow or amber warnings, people take notice and modify their plans accordingly. Even with 4x4 equipped with winter tyres, they will avoid traveling at all costs. The vast majority of people in the UK don't have winter tyres and although they are fantastic and would overcome most issues, they would be wasted for the typical UK winter, except for those living at elevation. However, it is somewhat of a disgrace that emergency services appear to be so ill equipped and there probably should be change there. In regards to the warnings, not sure. The MetOffice made people aware with yellow, amber and red warnings where appropriate and in advance. If you were planning to travel on an amber warning but only changed your mind when it went to red, you probably need to have a good luck in the mirror in general.

Now now, Nick. Far be it from me to ramp, but didn't the UK experience its coldest March for some 100 years in 2013? Sure I read that somewhere. Quite true in one part. The longer time ticks, the more special the event needed.

To be fair. People are wetting themselves over day 16 to 30 guidance. Ergo, MetO likely going by glosea and maybe in part EPS 46. Checking other shorter range models and their own every so often to make sure its not a million miles away.

@Banbury Yes. Sorry, I actually thought my previous message was a banter thread one, but replying to yours would be taking it even more off topic in there :-)

Well. I respect the UKMO output and I would rate it above GFS at the range, it is hard to dismiss the GEFS over a single operational. Not that I have a vested interest either way. Couldn't care less what comes my way. Double digits would be nice. Missing the outdoor cycling.....

Quite... Yet....how did the UK avoid cold air when high pressure was sent up into the arctic like that? That's quite a feat for T360 hours of output during an SSW when high pressure is around. Of course, won't happen. Still interesting though.

Thinking this run will likely give big heights over the UK and Western Europe that will be stubborn to shift. Let's see though :-)

GEFS Mean anomaly. The trend is not your friend this morning, if the GEFS is to be believed. Colder air not making it far enough west and if it did, what does isn't cold enough. Then need to rely on the percentage play being significantly wrong to give a cold easterly. Disclaimer: I make no claims that the GEFS is close to being correct.

ECM Control is also not good for those wishing cold. The Mean seems to suggest both the Op and Control likely don't have much support among their own suites. So, depending which way the wind is blowing (he he he, sorry), you can either decide that means are the way to go, or Operational's have seen the light (sorry again).

Has anyone ever told you that you are all heart?