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jvenge

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Everything posted by jvenge

  1. jvenge
    I suppose Ireland could be a little worse?
  2. jvenge
    GEFS Mean into New Year starts to play with ridging over the UK and Europe. The GFS Op gives a particularly unpleasant example of this with ridging all over Europe and low after low going through the UK out into the unreliable.
  3. jvenge
    GEFS mean weakens the signal as well. Worth reiterating the the GEFS mean wasn't close to the Op runs all of yesterday.
  4. jvenge
    GEF Op loses the snow it was showing for the 26th onwards for England.
  5. jvenge
    ECM 12Z Op is still not going along with the GFS Op regarding the snow prospects for the period 25th to 27th.
  6. jvenge
    It depends which model runs and which models are looked at. As an example.... But the mild air is not outlandish for your general area, as you can see.
  7. jvenge
    Most are still there, but they get drowned out. I suggest you make use of the ignore list, as it is much easier to read the thread. I personally like to read what BlueArmy and CreweCold have to say, because although they want a certain outcome, they don't overstate the chances of it.
  8. jvenge
    For what time period? I think if there is snow to be had it is most likely to come late evening on the 25th until the 27th. It's not just looking at precipitation but also what looks to be rain and snow and then trying to figure out even if you get falling snow if it will settle. Just to add though, the GFS Op is amongst the most optimistic snow potential model runs on display. In reality I don't think the model means are too far apart for that festive period.
  9. jvenge
    I think the GFS has been at the Christmas sherry for my location. No, I don't expect that to happen and I won't cry about models being crap when it doesn't.
  10. jvenge
    You shouldn't question the wisdom of the model whisperers
  11. jvenge
    Although there is obviously a signal for what the GFS Op shows, the ensemble mean is distinctly not as enthusiastic and generous as the Op.
  12. jvenge
    Almost, but the latency applies to the transfer as well, not just the delay in beginning transmission, as is usually based upon the quality of connection between the points and also physical distance. That's the networking term anyway. I think the person who came up with that gem is probably trying to say that the data was already out of date as it was rolling out and therefore you shouldn't believe the run. Yes, even for netweather in winter that's a very creative one.
  13. jvenge
    Isn't that the general idea of mogreps? Runs so often and updates the metoffice forecast many times per day? Metoffice forecasts seem to update every two hours and they do indeed change, so I assume that changing output can only be from mogreps, unless someone else knows of something else they use? But anyway, surely it is a good thing they run so often and can change based on what they see.
  14. jvenge
    ECM Control and ENS favours cold rain for the majority for the period of interest. Although from the mean there is probably a cluster seeing something closer to the much loved GFS Op.
  15. jvenge
    Mild for my location too but I suppose there is some interest for the UK from boxing day onwards, but after that people seem to be looking at different time periods, precipitation levels, rain, snow, etc, and trying to big up a consensus that seems to be very wonky and not as good as stated.
  16. jvenge
    0z vs 6z for the same period.
  17. jvenge
    I guess for you looking at Manchester Airport should give a hint of what the GFS showed this morning.
  18. jvenge
    Not to mention the difference between quite a lot of rain vs snow.
  19. jvenge
    I suppose he means poor output. Not a preferred outcome.
  20. jvenge
    Oh I dunno, it is some what of a guilty pleasure. People complimenting the GFS this morning when they were completely trashing it last week. The mental gymnastics at play is quite extraordinary. In small doses it is quite funny, but it kinda does ruin the thread.
  21. jvenge
    Yep - ECM is giving rain for the period where GFS shows snow.
  22. jvenge
    I ignore most people posting in the thread but sometimes (well okay, all the time) its better to just look at the outputs yourself. GFS this morning shows a snow event beginning the very early hours of boxing day. But it has very poor support on the ensembles. I'll let the model whisperers guess the rest.
  23. jvenge
    Yes I saw But I didn't want to cause increased call load to the samaritans. By the way that squirrel has to be getting on a bit...
  24. jvenge
    Yes the 06z det is a very very slight downgrade (for cold prospects) vs the 0z up to t90 vs t96 this morning, but it really is very slight.
  25. jvenge
    6z det only goes to T90 (00z on 24th). But till that time it shows a slower advance of cold air than the 00z this morning, but there isn't much in it.
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