jvenge
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Posts posted by jvenge
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2 hours ago, Chesil View said:
It is never the less a fair question to ask, that if a seasonal model can't pick up a hugely anomalous period that makes up at least a third of the season its looking at then just how useful is it?
Because looking at 2m or 850 average temps isn't useful for seasonal models. They are useful for 500mb heights or MSLP. You can then guess what kind of weather can come from that. Also, for ECM, we see it for a monthly average only and you therefore just get to see either the strongest signal for that time period or an averaged into nothingness (which is useful as well). Generally what will happen is (if the forecast is in the ballpark), the warmer areas will be even warmer, the neutral areas will be actually cold and any areas showing cold will be even colder. You get to see this on the weeklies playing out quite often.
So ECM showing an anomaly between Greenland/Iceland for November, similar for December and then an anomaly over Scandinavia for January allows people to understand what is possible from that. However if you look at surface temperature prediction it looks rather lacklustre, but anyone knows that if things setup that way this forum will be having a meltdown.
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44 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
Does anybody think the recent volcanic eruption in Tonga might have an effect on the atmosphere going forward?
It's certainly something that no weather model would have foreseen or accounted for.
I'm just wondering going forward it might shake things up a bit. Not sure if it will have any effect on the rest of our winter weather though but maybe it'll cause something to happen that wouldn't have happened if it were not for it?
Nope. Nothing a few weeks out anyway.
It is of interest as to how it impacts the ENSO state going forwards. Some papers have speculated that volcanic eruptions in that general region can favour El Nino development. So I imagine many scientists are quite excited now that they get to test theories on such a big eruption.
Of course it isn't like ENSO forecasts are no long and accurate anyway, so even if it does go to El Nino, how unusual would that be after two La Nina anyway? Heh!
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Just now, CreweCold said:
Looks like we’re starting to see hints of this now in the D10+ timeframe, a few recent GFS runs have gone down this route. The 0z run being no exception.
Kinda curious to see what comes next. The pattern the UK has been under has given cold to Moldova, but little in the way of snow. I'm hoping the high doesn't reposition itself into some kind of Europe high.
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GEFS mean from the 0z keeps with a familiar theme from the reliable timeframe to the unreliable. The resulting being nothing unseasonably mild, but also nothing of interest to cold weather fans. Relatively dry since the jet stream goes north of the UK, but some light rain at times.
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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:
I see solar activity is being mentioned in the model thread. I see where they are coming from, so I personally don't dismiss it entirely but it comes a cropper the theory when 4 of the great winters of the 20th century happened near solar maxima
Winter 1916-17 maximum Aug 1917
Winter 1928-29 maximum April 1928
Winter 1946-47 maximum May 1947
Winter 1978-79 maximum December 1979
Another one: Winter 1894-95 maximum January 1894
Can solar experts explain this?
Further look at the deep minimum of 1911-14 and the winter CETs during that period
1911 5.0
1912 5.1
1913 5.3
1914 5.2
1915 4.3
Similar with La Nina and El Nino. We all know what the theoretical likely outcomes are, but things can happen to override it.
For the UK it happens to such an extent that someone shouldn't feel confident in El Nino and uneasy at La Nina.
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8 hours ago, Sleet30031972 said:
So "solar activity" (something that happens 147.11 million km away from Earth) has, you say (checks notes) a significant impact on the weather in the UK but not for Eastern Europe (about 2000 km away). Whilst interesting it seems something of a pseudo science with little real meteorological interest.
Well the sun's influence on weather isn't psuedo science.
Also Eastern Europe doesn't need high latitude blocking for cold weather, where as for the UK its kind of a must, unless a ridge sets up in a perfect place.
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Happy Orthodox/Old Christmas to you all. After some warm days here we look to be heading towards more seasonal temperatures with perhaps some light snowfall at the weekend. Perfect weather for a weekend stay at a village in the north of Moldova. Should see -6 overnight.
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3 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
I’d like to be convinced if there is anything to be taken from it when it fluctuates so much . Maybe I’m not an expert
You aren't supposed to look at it on a per run basis in isolation. Rather you look at the averages it picks out, particularly for height anomalies, over say a 7 day period and then you see how this changes either based on weighing more the more recent runs or weighing more the oldest runs. If you want to take a single run from a single day and then expect it to verify then yes, you are going to be disappointed.
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22 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Yeah it’s supposed to ! But it changes weekly from one extreme to the other so like the poster above intimates it’s a load of rubbish
Yeah, well, opinions n all, but it isn't a load of rubbish to those who know what to take from it.
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Not sure I get this CFS hate. The CFS is meant to be used for looking at seasonal or sub seasonal trends, not as a weather forecast.
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1 minute ago, jules216 said:
Finally a vindication where CZ is mild and Eastern Slovakia cold. Since last 2 and a half winter months jan21/feb21/ and 1/2 half of dec21 the cold just stopped Across the border in Poland and Czech rep. Where they had great spell of cold and Snow and here nothing. But finally a change and we have snowy spell and cold in Eastern Slovakia in the same time as Czech have mild weather. The result is the snowiest Christmas in a long tíme here. Even now I am hanging on to freezing temperature where everywhere else is mild.
Looks good. Moldova also got lucky this time, with the snowiest it has been the past 3 years. It really was a super fine margin though.
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29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Weatherbell has the worst colour shadings I have ever seen to represent temperatures.
It is universal that red/orange/yellow is warm and shades of blue are cold. Hence why they are called warm and cold colours.
Yet you look at that chart, the instinct is it is colder in the south than it is the north. When infact it is the other way around.
Even if you take it is anomalies charts, it looks belows average in the south and way above in the north.
Atrocious shading colours.
Yep not the best. Luckily they give numbers as well.
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GFS 0z Op run has temperatures hitting 15c for some people on Thursday.
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What's with the fog hating? I look forward to fog days.
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1 hour ago, jules216 said:
That moment when you wake Up on 24th of December to this. Its quarter past one and still at -1C. It was supposed to be a mild Christmas and tomorrow local weather agency put Up warning for 10-15cm Snow. Could this just be the most memorable Christmas in my lifetime? Hope UK does get compensation in the 2nd half of winter somehow if we manage to slow Down the vortex somehow. If tomorrow I get 10cm and next day as predicted Tmax of only -5C winter can finish,thats enough for me and roll on spring +25C and summer under El Nino +35C, have a Happy Christmas gang and keep the spirits high.
Looks good. I got a dusting this morning and there will be a thaw tomorrow before snow falling from late Saturday for a few days. I'm not brave enough to guess the amounts - models are fickle when it comes to Moldovan precipitation events.
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I think we all know that the most important thing about the weather at Christmas is that it is cold enough to chill champagne, wine and beer outside in order to save precious fridge space.
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7 minutes ago, knocker said:
With all the weeping and wailing going on at the moment I am reminded once again of the dictum of my old friend Sammy Rachevsky. "When analysing the model outputs it is far more sensible to start at day zero and work out, than day ten and work back."
Day 10? Day 16 it is usually..
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I know most won't care, but it has really been odd watching the models these days (for a different reason to most). The GFS control and OP for me now find high single digit to low double digit minus temperatures for next week. What is strange is that at the start of the week it was showing double digit positive temperatures. No hints in the ensembles of this prior. And the latest 12z gives snow events from the 26th onwards. I don't recall seeing that kind of turn around before It started from the Tuesday runs and the upgrades keep coming. Let's hope it doesn't turn the other way.
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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:
So, what you are saying then is that, just because it snowed on March 2 2018, British winters are not getting milder? How odd!
I think what he is probably saying is that he has experienced some nice cold and snow spells so he doesn't particularly care if south westerlies came along for a week longer than they used to and if some days got to 12 degrees rather than 9 degrees in winter.
Trying to figure out how climate change comes into play for weather patterns for the British Isles is quite tricky. After all, the warmest Christmas Day on record was 1920 in Devon. Northern Ireland had its coldest Christmas Day as recently as 2010, for example.
So how averages and means trend up doesn't really tell the whole story. Cold weather can and still does happen. It will continue to do so.
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GEFS Mean is quite representative of pretty much every ensemble member and Op towards New Year. What this means is the jet stream will run through the UK and bring quite wet weather and above average temperatures.
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5 minutes ago, mathematician said:
This global warming has destroyed one of the few nice hobbies left. I'm almost tempted to give it up entirely...
In Darlington you usually have more luck than most people! I was born in Darlington, btw.
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Although the chance of wide spread snow has vanished from the GFS for Saturday, it will have at least a seasonal feel to the air for many people.
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2 minutes ago, cobbett said:
Not sure why people have a problem with guys ramping up weather on a weather forum - it's a hobby (for most), if you want something more balanced just check the Met outlook
I think there is a difference between expressing interest in a preferred outcome and ramping. By all means if a model shows snow like the GFS Op did for 3 runs yesterday, say it. I did. But point out the GEFS were never so bullish. EPS and ECM Op not at all. Don't start disparaging models you praised a week ago, etc.
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Interestingly overnight the ECM and GFS deliver boxing day snow for me after teasing me with runs showing 9 degrees at times.
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Looking at the MSLP anomalies for December suggests a UK/Ireland high with then another high in western Russia. Even with MSLP anomalies there is noise, as you end up with a slight anomaly across Europe as a whole which will then render any temperature anomalies meaningless. The temp anomalies on seasonal models are the most useless. Even then, the chances of the ECM seasonal nailing the MSLP exactly are fairly slim, I'd say, so if that high pressure shifts in any direction you can get a widely different result.
Personally I do quite well out of UK highs usually
, but I wouldn't be overly confident on it currently. If it's reasonably accurate for the UK it will be dry and frosty.