jvenge

Looking at the MSLP anomalies for December suggests a UK/Ireland high with then another high in western Russia. Even with MSLP anomalies there is noise, as you end up with a slight anomaly across Europe as a whole which will then render any temperature anomalies meaningless. The temp anomalies on seasonal models are the most useless. Even then, the chances of the ECM seasonal nailing the MSLP exactly are fairly slim, I'd say, so if that high pressure shifts in any direction you can get a widely different result. Personally I do quite well out of UK highs usually , but I wouldn't be overly confident on it currently. If it's reasonably accurate for the UK it will be dry and frosty.

Because looking at 2m or 850 average temps isn't useful for seasonal models. They are useful for 500mb heights or MSLP. You can then guess what kind of weather can come from that. Also, for ECM, we see it for a monthly average only and you therefore just get to see either the strongest signal for that time period or an averaged into nothingness (which is useful as well). Generally what will happen is (if the forecast is in the ballpark), the warmer areas will be even warmer, the neutral areas will be actually cold and any areas showing cold will be even colder. You get to see this on the weeklies playing out quite often. So ECM showing an anomaly between Greenland/Iceland for November, similar for December and then an anomaly over Scandinavia for January allows people to understand what is possible from that. However if you look at surface temperature prediction it looks rather lacklustre, but anyone knows that if things setup that way this forum will be having a meltdown.

Nope. Nothing a few weeks out anyway. It is of interest as to how it impacts the ENSO state going forwards. Some papers have speculated that volcanic eruptions in that general region can favour El Nino development. So I imagine many scientists are quite excited now that they get to test theories on such a big eruption. Of course it isn't like ENSO forecasts are no long and accurate anyway, so even if it does go to El Nino, how unusual would that be after two La Nina anyway? Heh!

Kinda curious to see what comes next. The pattern the UK has been under has given cold to Moldova, but little in the way of snow. I'm hoping the high doesn't reposition itself into some kind of Europe high.

GEFS mean from the 0z keeps with a familiar theme from the reliable timeframe to the unreliable. The resulting being nothing unseasonably mild, but also nothing of interest to cold weather fans. Relatively dry since the jet stream goes north of the UK, but some light rain at times.

Similar with La Nina and El Nino. We all know what the theoretical likely outcomes are, but things can happen to override it. For the UK it happens to such an extent that someone shouldn't feel confident in El Nino and uneasy at La Nina.

Well the sun's influence on weather isn't psuedo science. Also Eastern Europe doesn't need high latitude blocking for cold weather, where as for the UK its kind of a must, unless a ridge sets up in a perfect place.

Happy Orthodox/Old Christmas to you all. After some warm days here we look to be heading towards more seasonal temperatures with perhaps some light snowfall at the weekend. Perfect weather for a weekend stay at a village in the north of Moldova. Should see -6 overnight.

You aren't supposed to look at it on a per run basis in isolation. Rather you look at the averages it picks out, particularly for height anomalies, over say a 7 day period and then you see how this changes either based on weighing more the more recent runs or weighing more the oldest runs. If you want to take a single run from a single day and then expect it to verify then yes, you are going to be disappointed.

Yeah, well, opinions n all, but it isn't a load of rubbish to those who know what to take from it.

Not sure I get this CFS hate. The CFS is meant to be used for looking at seasonal or sub seasonal trends, not as a weather forecast.

Looks good. Moldova also got lucky this time, with the snowiest it has been the past 3 years. It really was a super fine margin though.

Yep not the best. Luckily they give numbers as well.

GFS 0z Op run has temperatures hitting 15c for some people on Thursday.

What's with the fog hating? I look forward to fog days.