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    Chisinau, Moldova.

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  1. Oh, this is an interesting one. The English seem to have a certain reckless attitude when it comes to snow. No idea why. In Moldova, obviously everyone has winter tyres and as such, problems are unlikely to happen. However, if there are yellow or amber warnings, people take notice and modify their plans accordingly. Even with 4x4 equipped with winter tyres, they will avoid traveling at all costs. The vast majority of people in the UK don't have winter tyres and although they are fantastic and would overcome most issues, they would be wasted for the typical UK winter, except for those living at elevation. However, it is somewhat of a disgrace that emergency services appear to be so ill equipped and there probably should be change there. In regards to the warnings, not sure. The MetOffice made people aware with yellow, amber and red warnings where appropriate and in advance. If you were planning to travel on an amber warning but only changed your mind when it went to red, you probably need to have a good luck in the mirror in general.
  2. Now now, Nick. Far be it from me to ramp, but didn't the UK experience its coldest March for some 100 years in 2013? Sure I read that somewhere. Quite true in one part. The longer time ticks, the more special the event needed.
  3. To be fair. People are wetting themselves over day 16 to 30 guidance. Ergo, MetO likely going by glosea and maybe in part EPS 46. Checking other shorter range models and their own every so often to make sure its not a million miles away.
  4. @Banbury Yes. Sorry, I actually thought my previous message was a banter thread one, but replying to yours would be taking it even more off topic in there :-)
  5. Well. I respect the UKMO output and I would rate it above GFS at the range, it is hard to dismiss the GEFS over a single operational. Not that I have a vested interest either way. Couldn't care less what comes my way. Double digits would be nice. Missing the outdoor cycling.....
  6. Quite... Yet....how did the UK avoid cold air when high pressure was sent up into the arctic like that? That's quite a feat for T360 hours of output during an SSW when high pressure is around. Of course, won't happen. Still interesting though.
  7. Thinking this run will likely give big heights over the UK and Western Europe that will be stubborn to shift. Let's see though :-)
  8. GEFS Mean anomaly. The trend is not your friend this morning, if the GEFS is to be believed. Colder air not making it far enough west and if it did, what does isn't cold enough. Then need to rely on the percentage play being significantly wrong to give a cold easterly. Disclaimer: I make no claims that the GEFS is close to being correct.
  9. ECM Control is also not good for those wishing cold. The Mean seems to suggest both the Op and Control likely don't have much support among their own suites. So, depending which way the wind is blowing (he he he, sorry), you can either decide that means are the way to go, or Operational's have seen the light (sorry again).
  10. Has anyone ever told you that you are all heart?
  11. They aren't innocent. Victims I suppose... :-)
  12. Sadly no. At that range, we need to be relying on the GFS being very very wrong (quite possible). It is quite far from a good chart as both the position, shape and angle are all wrong. So it isn't just a positional issue. As usual, to the ensembles to see when divergence starts.
  13. At T144 the GFS has cut off the heights slightly quicker and the position changed slightly, but it is still not good for cold for the UK, as colder air will cut under. Doubtful anything fruitful within high resolution. Slight chance for the extreme south east coast.
  14. Well, erm, snowing here again if its any comfort? I should keep a ledger of how many times posters say the Op runs lead the way when they show cold, but its the ens that are most important when they don't. My personal opinion. Good chances of some colder weather the next 30 days. Blocking exceedingly likely at high latitudes. Will that give -12 uppers to the UK and snow fests? No idea, but it would be bad luck not to get somethimg close for at least a few days.
  15. Not sure why the EPS Mean only going out to the 23rd on yours, but the extended shows a drop of the mean between -2 and -3 in the 7 days after. Also, the one I use for GEFS puts that differently as well. Attached, since i can post GFS output.