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About jvenge

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    Chisinau, Moldova.

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  1. CFSV2 is backing off on the La Nina with each run. Still there, but it has weakened a lot.
  2. I kinda like the maps Accuweather use for forecasts, but I think that's where it stops. Of course, they give a forecast and don't explain the logic, but they usually say stormy for the UK and last year was fairly benign. For my little Moldova they just seem to go with what the past two winters were like; non starters till January. It's weird to give that much detail when the La Nina strength is looking so uncertain.
  3. Not ideal for the UK. Weak to moderate La Nina, E-QBO, declining solar. Take out the La Nina and you will find some nice analogs from previous years. I'd expect to see the jet powered up into early winter at least. No idea after that. However, the jet could run south of the UK and the storm tracks penetrate more into continental Europe.
  4. Snow coming over the next 10 days or so. Not that I buy into this being anything much more than an old wives tale ;-)
  5. It's impressive to see, but still day 9 and although a lot of the ensembles show some agreement, they differ a lot on the area and anomaly. Probably some fun and games between that cold to the east to be had yet. Although not likely enough to change much for central Europe and around the alps (in the context of this being the GFS/GEFS) ECM and EPS see things differently for the period and it can be very different depending what happens at day 6 and 7 first.
  6. Some central parts probably see an anomaly of +10 or so for the time of year, before dropping down. Quite a few of the GEFS not showing that kind of extreme, though, and considering the range. Guessing it changes next run :-)
  7. ECM seems to give good snowfall for Russia over the next weekend. So, would be expecting a nice steady advance still.
  8. Hurricane Ophelia

    Looks like a very similar path to Hurricane Debbie in 1961.
  9. I don't take any notice of it, to be honest. It is nice to see some of the analogs that people put out there, but if you limit your analogs to two things, like say QBO and Solar, surely there is a whole lot of stuff you are ignoring as well. I'd find it unlikely the long term models have it nailed on just yet (if they can ever be said to), but not sure I'd trust an analog from 50 odd years ago over them ;-) Still, it is a good read on a forum. If I saw someone basing a forecast on it, though, I think that's where the interest would stop for me.
  10. I also suppose that solar activity would be close to the 1962-1963 winter as well in terms of where the minimum is. All depends how you weight stuff, I guess :-)
  11. After the coming warmth, the weekly ECM Eps seems to show above average temperatures for the rest of the month for the UK, although not even close to the extreme coming up. Colder air seems to be tucked into south east Europe and caspian sea areas. CFSv2 broadly similar the the next 20 days as well.
  12. That a hybrid? Not seen one like that before. The red variety is most common here. No grey ones. Every so often, I do see a red one that seems to have mutated into something resembling black, but can still see the ginger underneath. I'll try to grab a photo.
  13. Some variety would be good. Last year December was a non start really, kind of a prolonged Autumn. Winter came in January and it certain came with a bang. Some good snow events, but also some prolonged ice days, with bright sunshine :-)
  14. Antarctic Ice Discussion

    A good read and will be interesting to see how long it sticks around for and how much heat is radiated to space as a result.