Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?

jvenge

Members
  • Content Count

    1,569
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

1,578 Exceptional

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Chisinau, Moldova.

Recent Profile Visitors

4,290 profile views
  1. EPS Mean not so different to the 12z yesterday, out to day 10 or so. Slight shift west for the high. Lots of options in the clusters, one suspects. Although if this potential cold weather doesn't hit western Europe, I'm just wondering about a split in this high and part of it sitting over Western Russia and the other part ending up just below Greenland. Getting quite cold out that way. Not exactly a classic Easterly, but it would certainly deliver. Of course, that's probably at least 15 days away and a lot could happen in that time.
  2. Yep. EPS not really with the op this morning. EPS not keen on the high shifting to Iceland and then onwards, rather keeping it north east of the UK.
  3. jvenge

    Winter 2018/19

    The good thing about accuweather is that you can see how their previous winter forecasts fared. Still, they at least stick their neck out and do it.
  4. jvenge

    Winter 2018/19

    From an analog point of view - Winter of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 are quite close to current conditions and forecasts. It won't take too long for you to realise they delivered quite different things
  5. From what I know, as we approach the solar minimum of a solar cycle, interactions with the stratosphere can influence the polar arm of the jet stream. (from memory I think it is something to do with ozone). This seems to happen irrespective of ENSO conditions. There have been a few papers on the subject over the years. A quick google finds this from Nature https://www.nature.com/news/2010/100414/full/news.2010.184.html Influencing the polar arm of the jet will undoubtedly influence the temperature of Europe. It is pretty much how every cold spell comes to Western Europe. You can constantly observe this. That happens to Europe irrespective of what the co2 concentrations are. EUROPE, I said. But we almost go onto another topic now. Because a solar minimum within a solar cycle is one thing. This is widely accepted. It is not yet clear if this year will be the minimum or if it will be next year. The issue is then people tend to try and predict how future solar cycles will be and it gets quite murky. The last solar cycle (or the one we are in) is a long way from a Maunder Minimum type scenario. In a Maunder Minimum type scenario you would have every winter (just about) giving you what a current solar minimum does in the 11 year cycle. There isn't anything assured that SC25 will be lower than SC24 and even if it was, that it would be low enough to influence each European winter. Observational evidence of the current cycle (recent history shows it to be quite low) would point that it isn't low enough to radically change winters outside of the usual minimums. Put simply, a weak SC24 (by recent historical standards) wasn't weak enough. You will find different scientists predicting different things for the next solar cycle. Quite honestly, I'd say its pure speculation to say another Maunder Minimum is imminent. So, even if you got a SC25 weaker than current SC24, it isn't clear if it would be sufficiently weak enough. Added to that, many scientists will take a punt on it being a little stronger than SC24. In general, in the last thread especially, the thread became overwhelmed by people talking about different subjects (past, current and future) that it became a mess.
  6. More recent model runs weakening the proposed (current not onset) El Nino. Awaiting BOM next update. I was thinking the last 3 months it would be ENSO neutral or weakish Modoki. I was favouring neutral, but looks like I guessed wrong according to models. All shall be come clear soon, though. ECMWF and MetO appear to be on the top end of the estimate still. Can change. Solar fairly weak. Not yet clear if minimum. But low, none the less. This, of course, leads to unknowns for the second half of Autumn and early winter. I'm no expert, but I'd suggest that the Atlantic should have a weak influence into early winter, but how the ENSO develops the next weeks to influence Autumn is up for grabs.
  7. It is really unfortunate that this thread is turned into yet another pointless climate change thread. Especially since it is guaranteed to just be an endless circle of argument. Ultimately, as said before, my understanding of a solar minimum is that through stratospheric interactions, it can steer the polar arm of the jet stream away from Western Europe (blocking) and thus allow colder air from the arctic and Russia to penetrate into Europe and sometimes all the way to the British isles. I'd suppose it is a similar behaviour to a text book El Nino interaction (doesn't go to plan more times than not) on the polar arm of the jet, but I haven't really compared the two. It is proposed that during more prolonged minimums in the past that this caused successive colder winters in Europe. But I really don't want to get in to predicting future solar cycles and I would suggest that many people are muddying the waters in here by referencing it. Just what threshold is needed for this to be more of a dominant feature and how it weighs up against other aspects, I'm not sure, but it would seem through correlation that a cold winter usually does hit Europe during or around a solar minimum (i refer to the minimum of a solar cycle, not any grand minimums and the like). This seems to happen irrespective of the ENSO state being neutral, El Nino or La Nina. I'm really not sure of how these interactions play together and which combinations are more suited or not. Perhaps it would take @Tamara or someone to clarify the specifics Unclear if this winter is the minimum of the present solar cycle or if it will be for next winter. I suppose that, in part anyway, will be answered by observations until November or so.
  8. I guess cheeky monkey has a point, then. Sunspot levels low, suggesting a minimum somewhere between 3 months ago and next summer, but would this year be the minimum( unknown for now) or next year? Also, is there a threshold for when it kicks in? How low does it need to go and for how long? For 3 consecutive years to make it in would seem a bit generous I'm not so well read on the subject, but I'm assuming this is impacting the strat and thus steering the polar arm of the jet stream away from Europe, allowing cold from the Arctic and Russia to cool the continent.
  9. When we discuss solar minimum, are we referring to sun spots?
  10. jvenge

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    No, I get it. It's just that it isn't alarming enough, in regards to the initial question By the way. Are you aware of any proposals to block any straits in the arctic? Since the big ice loss years seemed to coincide with the natural ice arches not forming and thus certain wind patterns blowing ice out of the arctic where it quickly melts. You would think such an approach is doable, considering the length of most of them.
  11. Hmm? I quite like sprouts. It was bang on average for Moldova, which saw day time highs between 28-32 most days. It actually got to average without any overly hot spells or cool spells. Good storms first half of summer.
  12. jvenge

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Firstly I mentioned ice free in summer, as that seems to be the more near to medium term chance. I don't know where to begin re ice free all year around. Since there is no prospect of that likely in my life time, not worth me speculating now. Coasts are eroding World wide and have been since the last glacial period. So, trying to point to coastal erosion as an issue is just not alarming enough. No sea rise from it. Also, considering how pot holes behave, there is likely a case for a freeze and thaw doing more damage than a continuous freeze or no freeze. So it would be unclear how that would end up. Also, extreme ice and cold is generally bad for a local population. So, ultimately, localities being more habitable due to less extreme conditions is only going to be a net positive. Any increase in erosion (no sea rise) is not going to counter the benefits of a more temperate local climate. Not saying its right, as I personally think it is horrible to lose such a habitat, but the aesthetics aside, it would be a net positive. Could be, but an equally more likely scenario if to go with yours is that the increase in air moisture would lead to increased precipitation as snow fall/rain, which then freezes and adds to the mass. See the past two years. I understand precipitation to be increasing in Antarctica as well. So, it isn't so simple. Rightly or wrongly, the Arctic isn't a priority. Not just in words, but in actions.
  13. jvenge

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I guess the issue with the arctic is there is no doomsday scenario as with Greenland or Antarctica. Nobody can really say why an ice free arctic would be bad in summer. Some might try and handwave some tenuous link to coastal erosion, but thats about it.
  14. jvenge

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Need to see the red line at 266k or so before you can say the bottom, but given where it is and the forecast, unlikely to see it go much below tje current level.
×