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jvenge

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    Chisinau, Moldova.

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  1. Why do people care so much? Of course, many have an interest in the weather, what it is going to do and have weather preference types, but some people seem to live for the model runs and pin their happiness on the outcomes. The modeled output for my location has gone from -1 on Christmas day to +11 in the space of 24 hours on the ECM set runs :-D No doubt it will change again as well. Does it matter? Not in the slightest. I'll still be having the exact same day.
  2. I was out of the UK for many years, but I don't recall that insinuating someone using a zimmer frame was particularly humerous. I find it alarming to share oxygen with someone who does, let alone tea and biscuits.
  3. Who likes wet and windy? Certainly not Knocker.
  4. Maybe have some respect or if you can't, go back to the sandpit and play with your soldiers. Its not like you have anything to say in regards to models anyway.
  5. Glad to see Knocker has resolved his technical issues. Interesting 12z from the ECM EPS. I don't usually bother with beyond T240, but one wonders if a cooler zonal flow going towards the month end is likely.
  6. You mean the EPS 46 based on yesterdays 0z? They are out and there isn't anything of interest there for coldies. I personally have an incredibly low opinion of it, though.
  7. ECM control is mild out till the end and if you had hopes of chilling the bubbly outside on Christmas day, you will be hoping its well off mark. The mean seems to suggest the control option would be on the extreme side, but it is also not favouring a seasonal feel.
  8. The Op was the pick of the run, but you can see some of the other ensembles (far from a majority solution) smell something similar in the extended range, even if they do end up at different places. Bigger takeaway being that many of them favour a move away from mild, even if they get there in slightly different ways and don't give anything particular cold along the way.
  9. You can. This is because you can have somewhere cold one month, then warm the next. It's over a 3 month period. When people look at these things, especially for temperatures, they just assume that each day of the three month period will be above average in a static way. But that's not how averages come to be. You then also need to take into account that the globe is warming and it would actually be quite unusual if large parts did show a cold anomaly over a three month period in regards to a previous 30 year base period.
  10. No it doesn't. That's not a good chart for anything even close to resembling an ice day in London. Unless ice has a new freezing point and I wasn't informed.
  11. Eh? That's showing 8-12 degrees in the south coast and 6 a little further north. I don't think anywhere but very high ground would get frosts from that.
  12. Quite, but it isn't actually showing in 2sd, just close to, and briefly, before moving back into a standard deviation. I actually think it is quite encouraging for the time of year :-) I generally have an issue when people who confuse mean and normal and thought I'd rant a bit while the forum is quiet.
  13. Almost, briefly, almost ;-) You don't arrive at a mean value by "normal" conditions tracking the mean. So, it is on the edge of a standard deviation and two standard deviations briefly. Standard deviation, by its name, suggests it is quite, well, standard? So, while it stays within a standard deviation, on either side, I'd suggest that's quite normal and average for an observation/forecast.
  14. Always best not to confuse a mean with normal. That is quite within a "normal" (or shall we say "typical") range.
  15. Positive AO and NAO on the GEM, GEFS and ECM EPS on the run up to Christmas. Negative to neutral PNA. This isn't indicative of a colder pattern for Western Europe. It looks like there will be a milder phase after this colder one passes (yes, the UK is still under colder air, in case you forgot), but the duration is open to question and while still 13 days out, a lot can still change before the 25th.
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